8 ball: Going for the runout!

What do your chances have to be to try for the runout?

  • 90%

    Votes: 3 4.7%

  • 80%

    Votes: 9 14.1%

  • 70%

    Votes: 15 23.4%

  • 60%

    Votes: 6 9.4%

  • 50%

    Votes: 12 18.8%

  • 40%

    Votes: 5 7.8%

  • 30%

    Votes: 3 4.7%

  • 20%

    Votes: 4 6.3%

  • 10%

    Votes: 4 6.3%

  • 0.000000001%

    Votes: 3 4.7%
  • Total voters
    64
dfweyer

dfweyer

Play it safe...
Silver Member
I think I'm past the stage of going for the runout EVERYTIME. A few years ago I was in this stage and managed to get 10 runouts in 80 games, but my w/l record was a dismal 42-38. It was after that season that I decided to better estimate my percentage of getting out...and if it was below 80% anytime in the run, I'd change my plan of attack. I got out on this the other day in league... and my opponent said I'd only run out 1 out of 100. But I thought my chances were much better...what do you think?

2008-10-03a%20Cuetable.JPG


2008-10-03b%20Cuetable.JPG
 
df,,

Obviously, percentages depends heavily on your ability.

I can't speak for top players, but I can say that anyone playing "A" speed or below is asking for trouble going for that out.

One big problem is that going from the 5 to the 7 entails crossing the line of position, making speed 10 times more crucial. Two, you need a favorable angle on the 7 to have any hope of getting on the 8. This is tough because the 7 only goes into one pocket. Lastly, the 8 only goes into 1 pocket (without banking) and getting on the 8 is no prize either.

Personally, I'd bank the 5 toawrds the corner and try to block the 12 & 15 ball. This way, you can possibly break open the 7 on your next shot.


Eric >ask him to split
 
Eric. said:
Personally, I'd bank the 5 toawrds the corner and try to block the 12 & 15 ball. This way, you can possibly break open the 7 on your next shot.
Click to expand...

What is your chance of landing that shot? You could


  • miss blocking the pocket
  • leave an easy kick out of the 5 in making a stripe
  • accidently make the 5
  • Or leave an easy safety for your opponent to combo/carom your ball in, leaving you a long or hooked 7ball.
 
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That is a runout worth trying for. Given the table layout, I think the chances of running out are greater than the chances of obtaining a good safe.
 
Looks like an easy out since the cue ball is dying on the 3rd and 4th rail and even if you cross the line on the 7 ball, you still have a good shot with easier position on the 8.
 
dfweyer said:
What is your chance of landing that shot? You could


  • miss blocking the pocket
  • leave an easy kick out of the 5 in making a stripe
  • accidently make the 5
  • Or leave an easy safety for your opponent to combo/carom your ball in, leaving you a long or hooked 7ball.
Click to expand...


You make some good points on why the safe isn't the strongest response.

I gave my opinion on what I would do in this situation. Truthfully, I would have never let myself get into this situation in the first place. The error was made several shots before. Why would anyone run down to 2 balls, with one of them in an awkward position AND no decent key ball to get on the 8? More improtantly, why would anyone leave that 7 tied up til late in the rack?


Eric
 
Usually in most 8-Ball racks, the runout appears. Planning for it is right, but just let it happen....SPF=randyg
 
dfweyer said:
I think I'm past the stage of going for the runout EVERYTIME. A few years ago I was in this stage and managed to get 10 runouts in 80 games, but my w/l record was a dismal 42-38. It was after that season that I decided to better estimate my percentage of getting out...and if it was below 80% anytime in the run, I'd change my plan of attack. I got out on this the other day in league... and my opponent said I'd only run out 1 out of 100. But I thought my chances were much better...what do you think?

2008-10-03a%20Cuetable.JPG


2008-10-03b%20Cuetable.JPG
Click to expand...

A pro player will only get out from there like 40% of the time. U'r phucked!
 
CrownCityCorey said:
A pro player will only get out from there like 40% of the time. U'r phucked!
Click to expand...


You really feel that is a 40%'er?

Not to be a wise guy, but I'd give 3 to 1 on the money for someone to try this 100 times.


Eric >step right up, folks
 
Eric. said:
Not to be a wise guy, but I'd give 3 to 1 on the money for someone to try this 100 times.
Click to expand...

I'd bet that I can do it 4 out of 10. A couple of things though...first it was on a valley bar table. And 2nd, it appeared to me that the 7 was tight with the 11 in that it would go in the corner off the rail if hit soft.

$10 to win $30 in paypal?

I could probably get the 10 attempts (if I need that many) on video tomorrow evening after league.
 
dfweyer said:
I'd bet that I can do it 4 out of 10. A couple of things though...first it was on a valley bar table. And 2nd, it appeared to me that the 7 was tight with the 11 in that it would go in the corner off the rail if hit soft.

$10 to win $30 in paypal?

I could probably get the 10 attempts (if I need that many) on video tomorrow evening after league.
Click to expand...


If youre willing to do it over a live stream, you got action, my friend. :)

*edit-you gotta shoot it the way you diagrammed it, the 7 can't be a dead carom to the corner.


Eric
 
Eric. said:
If youre willing to do it over a live stream, you got action, my friend.
Click to expand...

I'm not capable for live streaming...but do have honor for the game. I don't need your $30 bucks...it's just the principle of the matter.

I will probably attempt this tomorrow 10 times anyhow and post the video for chits&giggles


Eric. said:
you gotta shoot it the way you diagrammed it, the 7 can't be a dead carom to the corner.
Click to expand...

I may get the 7 straight in and will do a stop shot for the 8 instead of the 2-rail shape in my diagram obviously. I will move the 11 slightly so it cannot be caromed...look for the video late tomorrow or early Thurs.
 
Regardless of what the percentages of getting out are you are at a point of no return. If you are up against a good player you must continue to try to run out from this position. Eric. suggested to bank the five ball to block the pocket at upper right corner. A good player would jump at the opportunity to combo the five in and lessen your chances of winning. I think a safety at this point is a losing proposition.

It seems to me that the position is not dire. A fairly decent player can make this work with maybe a 20% to 40% chance. I believe a pro is much better that 30% possibly 70% to 80%.
 
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It is very helpful to be able to asses your opponents skill. If you are in a game where you might go for it... or might not; knowing whether your opponent can run 7 or 8 reasonably open shots consistantly may help you decide. If they are pretty good, play with more caution and let them have more obstacles.
 
dfweyer said:
I'd bet that I can do it 4 out of 10. A couple of things though...first it was on a valley bar table.
Click to expand...

On a 7-footer, yer "run-out from there" percentage just dropped.

An interesting note though, there is no other option but to attempt to run out from there. When you give a good/great player no choice, they come with it more often than not.
 
dabarbr said:
Regardless of what the percentages of getting out are you are at a point of no return. If you are up against a good player you must continue to try to run out from this position. Eric. suggested to bank the five ball to block the pocket at upper right corner. A good player would jump at the opportunity to combo the five in and lessen your chances of winning. I think a safety at this point is a losing proposition.

It seems to me that the position is not dire. A fairly decent player can make this work with maybe a 20% to 40% chance. I believe a pro is much better that 30% possibly 70% to 80%.
Click to expand...


Frank,

I agree with your assessment, I know you have good knowledge on this game.

My thinking is that this is a desperate situation, either way. My hope is that the 5 would block the pocket, but not be hanging in the hole. If I was lucky enough to get a roll like that, then I can break the 7 out. Your way probably is a better choice, although, I find it hard t o believe that this out can be above 50% for anyone (unless you're Fillipino) ;)


Eric
 
CrownCityCorey said:
On a 7-footer, yer "run-out from there" percentage just dropped.

An interesting note though, there is no other option but to attempt to run out from there. When you give a good/great player no choice, they come with it more often than not.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Good players usually find a way to make it work.
 
This choice is a short fly ball, for you baseballers. Your odds of winning by running out are greater by far, than leaving yourself with one ball on the table and only one pocket for the eight. The runout is the only choice, even if your a B player. That is unless your playing your girlfriend.
 
CrownCityCorey said:
On a 7-footer, yer "run-out from there" percentage just dropped.
Click to expand...

You may be right...but the friggen pockets are huge compared to my 8-foot Olhausen at home.
 
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