Nature vs Nurture: New study in favor of Nature

Funny but when one book says the science says X and other says Y then you seem to think one is wrong and the other is right.<--Yes John, the 'science' espousing YOUR theory, is definitely WRONG !

Of the hundreds you have known name one and show us the proof that this person had a similar upbringing as Shane and put in the same time as Shane and didn't achieve world class.<--That would probably be every decent player, who plays 'UNDER' Shanes speed ! (you are so easy. :o)

Sorry John, but I'm too old to remember all their names !..But I do know most of them died, trying to become "world class" !...I can only assume, you will meet a similar demise ! (but I wish you luck at trying :o)

PS..I assume we have 'no bet' on BJ's aspiring golfer, eh ?..Perhaps you don't believe golf and pool, are VERY similar ?
I've known almost as many golfers, who struggled to become 'world class'..In fact, I was one MYSELF ! :eek:
 
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Some nice discussions here. Thanks all for participating.

John, I'm almost willing to put you up in my place for 6 months and be my coach:) If you got me to beating the 9 ball ghost, or running 100 in straight pool (my personal definition of an A player), then there is hope for anyone:)
 
In "The Sports Gene", the author writes of Dan McLaughlin, who at the age of 30 -after reading books such "Outliers" & "Talent is Overrated"- decided to quit his job and become a pro golfer - in spite of having almost no prior golf or high level athletic experience.

In order to maximize his chances of success, McLaughlin hired a PGA certified instructor and even consulted with Dr. Ericsson (father of the 10k hour hypothesis) in order to design his 10k hour experience for optimal effectiveness.

In addition to the 10k hours of deliberate, focused, engaged practice he spends considerable amount of time on stuff like nutrition, physical fitness, psychology, etc... (none of which counts towards his 10k hours of practice). And of course every practice hour is logged and recorded.

McLaughlin is currently at hour 5,343 and his handicap as of May 1st, 2014 is down to an impressive 3.3. Not bad consider the fact that he had almost no golf experience prior to "The Dan Plan".

My question -especially for all the proponents of the 10,000 hour rule- is: Do you think Dan McLaughlin will get his PGA tour card within 1 year of reaching his 10,000 of practice (probably sometime around 2017)? Or more specifically, what do you think his chances are?

I assume that besides low probability events like health issues (or a healthy male in his early 30's), proponents of the 10k hour rule would think it would be highly likely.

In any case, would love to hear people's thoughts, it might make for some interesting action.

Thanks BJTyler. I hadn't heard of the Dan Plan until today. I'll be following his progress. It's really an interesting experiment. Although I bet it takes closer to 25,000 hours to make it to the top of the PGA tour.

I think all sports undergo a change over time where it takes more and more time to reach the top. Just think of baseball for a second. There was a time, not too long ago where you could just play the game a lot with your buddies growing up. You could become the best player out of the group of friends that you ran around with. Then you become the best player on your school teams and end up getting a college scholarship or getting a minor league contract. Of course they practiced along the way but not for 10 or 20,000 hours.

Today's ball players are trained from an very early age. No more running around town looking for a game with the neighborhood kids. Instead it's hitting and pitching clinics and spending the winter indoors, hitting balls off the machine, and on and on it goes for 15 years and you might be pretty good come college age.

In golf I'm guessing once you become a scratch player it could take another 10,000 hours just to erase 1 stroke from your handicap.

10,000 hours is just a minimum.
 
Go get the book "The Talent Code" by Daniel Coyle and read with an open mind.

He comes down on the side that greatness isn't born, it's grown. It is specific 'deep practice', a stimulant and a specific coaching type.

He talks about the brain mechanism that fires when we are acquiring a skill.

Quick read and for any coach/teacher, a good resource to have.

...I think all sports undergo a change over time where it takes more and more time to reach the top. Just think of baseball for a second. There was a time, not too long ago where you could just play the game a lot with your buddies growing up. You could become the best player out of the group of friends that you ran around with. Then you become the best player on your school teams and end up getting a college scholarship or getting a minor league contract. Of course they practiced along the way but not for 10 or 20,000 hours.

Today's ball players are trained from an very early age. No more running around town looking for a game with the neighborhood kids. Instead it's hitting and pitching clinics and spending the winter indoors, hitting balls off the machine, and on and on it goes for 15 years and you might be pretty good come college age...

I think the change we see now is that too many PARENTS think their kid is the next Tiger Woods, so they push them into an early life of their parent-ally chosen sport. I believe true greatness comes from the skills you acquire from many different activities. Great footwork for a NFL running back didn't necessarily come from playing football exclusively - maybe it was the basketball court.

The world today is so different, the kid that is being taken to the batting cages, etc etc, doesn't have the ability to run around town trying to find a pickup game as we did decades ago - and that's the shame in all of this.

Fewer and fewer multi-faceted skilled kids who's parents decided what they'll play.
 
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Well perhaps I just wasn't being clear enough.

How many of you would be willing to Bet & Post money either for or against the proposition that Dan McLaughlin will earn his PGA tour card within 1 year of reaching his 10,000 hours of practice? If so, what kind of odds would you give/require?

I'll begin by saying that I would be willing to both bet and post up to $10k -even money-AGAINST McLaughlin getting his tour card within 1 year of reaching 10k hours

Why? Because I believe genes matter. And while scientific studies may not be able to prove or disprove this proposition, I trust my intuition along with the decades of empirical evidence I've accumulated during my lifetime.

So, let's forget the quasi-scientific half-assed AZB scientific debate...do we have any takers on either side?
 
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There are more than a few examples of unequal potential in "The Sports Gene." The author includes lots of footnotes and references if you want to pursue it further.

The inequality factor is most evident in predominantly physical sports like track and field and basketball and baseball, but I think it is also present in cue sports.

John, I really think you need to read the book before continuing this discussion.

Bob, this sounds like an interesting book, and I'll order it after posting this.

I want to share something that, although I'm at a disadvantage in not knowing what caused it (due to not having read the book yet), may show that the "purely nature" may be bunk.

When I was in the Navy (mid-1980s), as with most sailors, you find something to do with your spare time (i.e. when not on actual watch / duty). When out to sea on a ship, it's not like you can hop in your car and go somewhere when you're not on duty -- you're stuck there on the ship, and you have to find something to do. Many sailors go to the fitness room and hit the weights; becoming quite buff after the deployment is over. Others choose to read, or play cards, or make potato shine in one of the ship's voids ;), etc.

Others, like me, pick up an instrument, and often -- almost every Navy ship -- has at least a couple bands aboard. I chose the bass guitar, because when listening to a song, it was either the drums or the bass line that I found find myself tapping or humming to.

The problem was, I was the classic white boy with no "self-sustaining" rhythm. While I could tap out an easy 4/4 time in cadence with the song playing, as soon as you stopped the song, I'd lose the timing. I couldn't hold it, and would drift in classic "white boy with two left feet" fashion.

Needless to say, I had a very difficult time with the bass guitar for the first 6 months. And I'm talking playing *every* day! Studying, practicing, studying, practicing, etc. I must've ordered (through the ship's book order system) every available book on the bass guitar as well as books on drumming, etc. And these books ended up all dog-eared with folded pages (bookmarks), etc.

After about 7 months, something just happened. I don't know, I woke up one day, and I had this metronome in my head, that I could adjust at will for whatever song I needed to play. Suddenly, this "soulless white boy with two left feet" "heard" the rhythm in his head and felt in his heart; and most importantly, was able to connect his fingers (that were on the strings of the bass) to that rhythm he heard. Not only could I lock-in on the downbeat even when the song was not playing, but also suddenly, I "got" syncopation. I can't tell you how rewarding it is when you can suddenly "feel" syncopation, and not feel like you have to play on the downbeat every single time. I could weave bass lines in, out, and *through* the rhythm. It was a euphoric feeling.

All at once, musicians aboard the two ships I was stationed aboard (the USS Briscoe [DD-977] and the USS Coontz [DDG-40]) asked me "what was I on" (meaning, elicit drugs) because they couldn't recognize this "musical klutz" suddenly was flowing out bass lines from Chris Squire (of Yes), Geddy Lee (of Rush), Ralphe Armstrong (of Jean-luc Ponty), and Marcus Miller (Marcus' finger-style stuff, anyway -- didn't like, and still don't, the slap bass style). I became the best bass guitarist not only onboard ship, but in the D&S (destroyers & submarines) squadron, and for all I know, maybe even the whole Norfolk Naval Station. In fact, there was a rock club just outside Norfolk Naval Station known as "On Stage" that pulled in name bands that people would go to see. My band was one of the few "all sailor" bands to play in there. Got quite a few invites to play for a few of the civilian bands that played there, too, but obviously I could not do that because of needing to be on call 24/7.

When I left the Navy in 1990 (two terms served), I played with a couple bands semi-professionally (meaning, I still held down a full-time career in I.T.), and played at a couple venues in NYC -- e.g. the China Club, L'Amour, and others. I graduated from 4-string to 5-string bass (still have my Rickenbacker 4003s 5-string), and graduated to 6-string (Ibanez SDGR-800, back when they were still made in Japan, and not Korea). The greatest compliment I ever got, was by the legendary Richie Havens, who many may not know was also a talented drafter, and worked at the NYC Housing Authority as a consultant. NYCHA was one of my customers when I worked at Intergraph Corp. (who supplied all the CAD workstations, software, and consulting to NYCHA). One day, Richie caught wind of my playing on a demo tape that one of my colleagues had. Richie came over to me, and started rubbing vigorously on the back of my hand, when I was using the computer mouse. I asked him what in the h*ll he was doing, and he said he was trying to rub "the makeup off." I replied with a very confused, "Wha...?!?", and he told me he heard my demo tape, and said that he heard, doesn't match at all what he sees. With that deep baritone, Richies says, "You got soul, my man!" I will take that to my grave as the greatest compliment ever paid me by a fellow musician.

Quite a transformation when I look back. But -- keep this in mind -- I had to work my bloody ass off for it! Every single day, for hours at a time. Until finally, something snapped.

Did I have this in my blood? I'm not sure, when you look at the fact I had to teach myself to keep basic time all by myself. Was it nature? I don't think so, because it took so damn long, with so much hard work. Whatever it was, I'm thankful it happened.

It'll be interesting to get the book. I'm looking forward!
-Sean
 
Thanks BJTyler. I hadn't heard of the Dan Plan until today. I'll be following his progress. It's really an interesting experiment. Although I bet it takes closer to 25,000 hours to make it to the top of the PGA tour.

I think all sports undergo a change over time where it takes more and more time to reach the top. Just think of baseball for a second. There was a time, not too long ago where you could just play the game a lot with your buddies growing up. You could become the best player out of the group of friends that you ran around with. Then you become the best player on your school teams and end up getting a college scholarship or getting a minor league contract. Of course they practiced along the way but not for 10 or 20,000 hours.

Today's ball players are trained from an very early age. No more running around town looking for a game with the neighborhood kids. Instead it's hitting and pitching clinics and spending the winter indoors, hitting balls off the machine, and on and on it goes for 15 years and you might be pretty good come college age.

In golf I'm guessing once you become a scratch player it could take another 10,000 hours just to erase 1 stroke from your handicap.

10,000 hours is just a minimum.

...So what happens when there are literally thousands of kids being brought up in an environment totally focused on acquiring world class skills in golf, baseball, tennis, or soccer? who then becomes the best?
 
Well perhaps I just wasn't being clear enough.

How many of you would be willing to Bet & Post money either for or against the proposition that Dan McLaughlin will earn his PGA tour card within 1 year of reaching his 10,000 hours of practice? If so, what kind of odds would you give/require?

I'll begin by saying that I would be willing to both bet and post up to $10k -even money-AGAINST McLaughlin getting his tour card within 1 year of reaching 10k hours

Why? Because I believe genes matter. And while scientific studies may not be able to prove or disprove this proposition, I trust my intuition along with the decades of empirical evidence I've accumulated during my lifetime.

So, let's forget the quasi-scientific half-assed AZB scientific debate...do we have any takers on either side?

I will bet $100. Only because I know how tough the competition is. Even if Dan reaches world class he is still one of hundreds (or maybe thousands) of people around the world who are world class. But I like betting on the underdog so you set the conditions and tell me if I won or lost.
 
I havent read the whole thread, but things are even more complicated than what's already been discussed. Not only does nature play an important part, but so do luck!
The next Mohammad Ali, Einstein or Usain Bolt, might be among us, it's just that they have not had the chance to discover their hidden talent.
You could be born in the dessert, but have the perfect physique and brain for cross country skiing or cliff diving, but most probeably you will never discover those talents due to the fact that you are born in a place those things aren't common sports.
So not only does top athletes have the inate talent and the will power to stick with it, but they also have luck, thir parents supported their talent, they discovered their talant at a young age etc.
 
I think going pro was the least of your worries

I play golf with someone that used to play with you on a regular basis. They have some entertaining stories your "golfing career," and I think going pro was the least of your worries. ;) 'The Game is the Teacher'


Sorry John, but I'm too old to remember all their names !..But I do know most of them died, trying to become "world class" !...I can only assume, you will meet a similar demise ! (but I wish you luck at trying :o)

PS..I assume we have 'no bet' on BJ's aspiring golfer, eh ?..Perhaps you don't believe golf and pool, are VERY similar ?
I've known almost as many golfers, who struggled to become 'world class'..In fact, I was one MYSELF ! :eek:
 
...So what happens when there are literally thousands of kids being brought up in an environment totally focused on acquiring world class skills in golf, baseball, tennis, or soccer? who then becomes the best?

The ones who work hardest and want it most AND how can hold it together under pressure.
 
Sorry John, but I'm too old to remember all their names !..But I do know most of them died, trying to become "world class" !...I can only assume, you will meet a similar demise ! (but I wish you luck at trying :o)

PS..I assume we have 'no bet' on BJ's aspiring golfer, eh ?..Perhaps you don't believe golf and pool, are VERY similar ?
I've known almost as many golfers, who struggled to become 'world class'..In fact, I was one MYSELF ! :eek:

Well that's convenient that you can't remember a single name out of the "hundreds" who were brought up in a family of champions and who put in thousands of dedicated hours practicing deeply but despite all that didn't turn into world class players. One would think that at least ONE of those people would have at least reached enough a level that you would remember their name.

Some nice discussions here. Thanks all for participating.

John, I'm almost willing to put you up in my place for 6 months and be my coach:) If you got me to beating the 9 ball ghost, or running 100 in straight pool (my personal definition of an A player), then there is hope for anyone:)

I would not be the one to coach you. But I would BET LARGE that if you were willing to put in the time that someone like John Schmidt or CJ Wiley could coach you to the point you consider to be an A player.

If you were willing to document and film the whole thing and pay for the coaching. I would bet $5000 that you would reach that level. I sincerely believe that you would willingly pay off when you realized how strong you were able to get.
 
Excellent!

I will bet $100. Only because I know how tough the competition is. Even if Dan reaches world class he is still one of hundreds (or maybe thousands) of people around the world who are world class. But I like betting on the underdog so you set the conditions and tell me if I won or lost.

We are on for $100.

1 year after 10k hours, if Dan McLaughlin gets his PGA tour card you win, if not I win.
- if he quits before reaching 10k hours, I'm willing to call it a push.


I'll notify you win or lose!

btw...you can track his performance at: www.thedanplan.com




all the best.
 
We are on for $100.

1 year after 10k hours, if Dan McLaughlin gets his PGA tour card you win, if not I win.
- if he quits before reaching 10k hours, I'm willing to call it a push.


I'll notify you win or lose!

btw...you can track his performance at: www.thedanplan.com




all the best.

Cool. I tried to track his performance and I don't understand golf handicaps and was surprised to find out that pros don't have handicaps. I guess that means they are all expected to be par or better?

Ok with a little Googling.... Pro golfers play consistently UNDER par which is 75. Taking more strokes than 75 means you are a -number handicap. Taking less strokes to finish the course means you are a +number handicap. Pro golfers who stay comfortably on tour are at about +5 and better. Tiger is +8 to +13.

Dan is currently -3 with a little over 5000 hours of practice. He started out having never played golf at all. He started in 2010. In 2012 he was a -8.7. I have no idea what all that really means except that according to the articles it seems as if a +4 would be the minimum one needs to get a PGA card. So he has 4700hours and 12 months to go from -3 to +4 and must play well enough to qualify.

I am glad he is doing it. Will make for a great case study into the future.
 
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Cool. I tried to track his performance and I don't understand golf handicaps and was surprised to find out that pros don't have handicaps. I guess that means they are all expected to be par or better?

I think the average PGA card carrying pro would carry a handicap of around +3 to +6. (So 6.3 to 9.3 strokes better than Dan is Currently.
 
Well perhaps I just wasn't being clear enough. <--Yes, it sounded like you were taking a 'pro-Laughlin' stance, originally !

How many of you would be willing to Bet & Post money either for or against the proposition that Dan McLaughlin will earn his PGA tour card within 1 year of reaching his 10,000 hours of practice? If so, what kind of odds would you give/require?

I'll begin by saying that I would be willing to both bet and post up to $10k -even money-AGAINST McLaughlin getting his tour card within 1 year of reaching 10k hours

Why? Because I believe genes matter. Now you are talking !..Always have, always will ! And while scientific studies may not be able to prove or disprove this proposition, I trust my intuition along with the decades of empirical evidence I've accumulated during my lifetime.
BJ, It appears you are agreeing with me, that he WON'T get his tour card ?..I'm cool with that...However, I am not a big favorite to make it to 2018...I would gladly bet the 10K, (or more) if you get more than you want, but I would not post the entire amount..I would however, love to post substantial forfeit money with John Barton ! (or anyone else).....I think we both know which way JB's betting ! :o

So, let's forget the quasi-scientific half-assed AZB scientific debate...do we have any takers on either side?

Good choice of words "Quasi-scientific" & "half assed". I just wish I could get Barton to commit to SOMETHING !

LATE EDIT..John, I was working on my post, while you and others were replying...So how much would you like with me ?.. I would prefer more than a hundred ! (you know you do OWE me a wager)
 
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Good choice of words "Quasi-scientific" & "half assed". I just wish I could get Barton to commit to SOMETHING ! ;)

I am committed to expanding my knowledge and not being a bigot or a racist.

That's why I buy and read the books people recommend and then make up my own mind on the subjects we discuss.
 
I am committed to expanding my knowledge and not being a bigot or a racist.

That's why I buy and read the books people recommend and then make up my own mind on the subjects we discuss.

Excuse me !!!... How did bigotry or racism enter into things ??? ...Sounds like another attempt at dodging a bet with me !..:confused:
 
...When I was in the Navy...
-Sean

Sorry to stoop to modern day shortcuts but OMG!
-Pool player (you're top run is a little higher than mine)
-Bass player, self learned (took me 8 years before playing live)
-Navy (83-91) NAVSTA NORVA not the D&S piers but 10 & 11, THEODORE ROOSEVELT CVN71
-know the club you're talking about but spent a little more time at the flight deck lounge ;-)

So, with all of the above and "learning" your talent, read The Talent Code too. It's forward starts with music, specifically a young girl learning a piece of music on clarinet and it's not just simply that she practices but HOW she does.

He went to many places around the world referred to as "talent hotbeds" and found many commonalities, regardless of sport, music, whatever. So many great examples of how specific, deep practice as he refers to it, kicks some brain function in.

I'd even send you a copy if your book budget is tight.

Thank you for your service shipmate!

Tony
 
I play golf with someone that used to play with you on a regular basis. They have some entertaining stories your "golfing career," and I think going pro was the least of your worries. ;) 'The Game is the Teacher'

How clever of you !...So now you are trying to beat 80 year old men out of their SS money ?.....When I was your age, 'Hank Haney lessons' would not have saved you...You'd probably have needed about 3 a side from me. :cool:

SJD---Worlds greatest 'undercover' golfer ! (Think of Jack Cooney at one pocket)


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