A chink in the armor of Fargorate -
01-11-2018, 01:26 PM
A 100 point spread between players predicts that the higher player will win two games for every one game the lower player wins.
But all games are not created equal and all 100 point spreads are not linear.
Take a nine ball race to 18. A 600 player is expected to beat a 500 player 12 times. This may well hold true because a 600 player will make mistakes leaving the 500 player some short outs even though the 500 can't run 6 balls. Now take a 700 player and a 600 player. Same result different reasons. The 600 player can actually run out enough to make the equation balance even though the 700 player isn't leaving him any 2 or 3 ball outs or hanging 9s. So life is good right? Not really.
Now the game switches to 8 ball. The 600 player can still run out some against the 700 player so it may finish fairly close to expected depending on the break format. Here comes the rub though. The 500 player could play the 600 player 8 ball all day and all night and be lucky to win a single game. Because all games are not equal even though Fargo treats them as such.
Having reported Fargo for a couple sessions now I see anecdotal evidence that this is true. The top players go down some during 9 ball and back up when 8 ball starts. This is the expected result though IMO because once again, all games are not equal.
JC
John Chaplin Coos Cues
jchaplin@charter.net It's not what you don't know that get's you in trouble.
It's what you know that just ain't so.
Are you talking about the fact that in 9 ball you can lose by leaving the last few balls easy for the weaker player and in 8 ball they would still need to run out their own balls first? So a player that may be able to win by sinking one ball in 9 ball may not win the same game in 8 ball because they still need to run their balls?
That may be an issue but it's pretty specific, I have lost many games of 8 ball to weaker players because even though they would miss, the fact that they have their balls on the table would block my shot on the 8 ball or my last ball or something. They not only would need to miss, but also leave a good shot for you.
"I'll back you against anyone, as long as you did not know you were playng for money"
Charter member of the D-Bag Club, we stick to the letter of the rules not the spirit, and up yours!
The 500 player could play the 600 player 8 ball all day and all night and be lucky to win a single game.
I'm not entirely sure I understand how a 100pt-lower player is only able to win one 8-ball game in a long session. The differences between 8-ball and rotation games are certainly well appreciated. In my experience, for roughly a hundred point difference, it has been approximately 2 to 1. DW and I are 200 points difference. We play awfully a lot against each other at home, from 8- to 10-ball, and my anecdotal observation has likely been around 4 to 1.
A 100 point spread between players predicts that the higher player will win two games for every one game the lower player wins.
But all games are not created equal and all 100 point spreads are not linear.
(...)
JC
I kind of thought this too BUT I'm fairly certain that Mike has shown that there's very little difference between the results when the games are 8, 9, or 10 ball. I think he has the data to back this up too.
I kind of thought this too BUT I'm fairly certain that Mike has shown that there's very little difference between the results when the games are 8, 9, or 10 ball. I think he has the data to back this up too.
In certain spectrum that's probably true. The discrepancy opens up wider for 8 ball when the weaker player can't run out an open table.
As I said all the stronger players in our little bca league went down some points during summer rotation and all of them are on the increase with the 8 ball season under way. It's not huge due to robustness acting as a shock absorber but it's there and it's not nothing.
JC
John Chaplin Coos Cues
jchaplin@charter.net It's not what you don't know that get's you in trouble.
It's what you know that just ain't so.
I kind of thought this too BUT I'm fairly certain that Mike has shown that there's very little difference between the results when the games are 8, 9, or 10 ball. I think he has the data to back this up too.
FargoRate also ignores the potentially substantial difference in the margins between winner breaks vs alternate break formats.
True, alternate breaks favor the weaker player regardless of the averages. Hell, we all know why alternate break came about, an attempt to handicap the best players. In actuality it gave false hope to the lazy and less talented. SVB still wins most of the tourneys he plays and is year in year out 6 figure winner.
Think about it, would Earl win a few more tournaments if it was still winner break... hmmm?
True, alternate breaks favor the weaker player regardless of the averages. Hell, we all know why alternate break came about, an attempt to handicap the best players. In actuality it gave false hope to the lazy and less talented. SVB still wins most of the tourneys he plays and is year in year out 6 figure winner.
Think about it, would Earl win a few more tournaments if it was still winner break... hmmm?
We've discussed this a bit in the past. It doesn't affect the probability of the better player winning or losing. However it does affect the margin... which is exactly what is used in FargoRate.
He shows it with mostly data from pro players with very high ratings. The average league players in the 500's and such run different for reasons I've already explained.
JC
John Chaplin Coos Cues
jchaplin@charter.net It's not what you don't know that get's you in trouble.
It's what you know that just ain't so.
He shows it with mostly data from pro players with very high ratings. The average league players in the 500's and such run different for reasons I've already explained.
JC
Average league players are in the 3-400 range. The high rated ones are in the 500 and up. My son and I are both mid 500s, we spot pretty much everyone we play. There is maybe two players out of 6 teams that are ranked higher than us. Fargo is based on overall rating over time, not a single type game or situation. There is also no tracking about 7 vs 9 foot tables which I am sure will be as much of a difference to many players as playing 8 ball or 9 ball, or about how good the tables are. A badly playing table is more of an advantage to a worse player since they often have no idea where the balls will end up anyway.
"I'll back you against anyone, as long as you did not know you were playng for money"
Charter member of the D-Bag Club, we stick to the letter of the rules not the spirit, and up yours!
So the question is: How would a 400 fare against a 500 in 8 ball and 9 ball?
According to FargoRate the 500 should win twice as many at both games over the long run. Or I guess you could have a player that plays at 550 speed in 9 ball and 450 speed in 8 ball so his overall average falls somewhere in between. Could be wrong there since I'm just thinking out loud here.
I guess I'm not seeing the descrepancy. If a 400 level player struggles to run out an open rack while playing 8 ball, wouldn't it be fair to say that this player would also rarely leave open tables for his opponent? Thus making it more difficult for the 500 level player to run out? If they switch to nine ball -- just based on the players I know in these ranges -- it seems like it would still fall into a 2:1 ratio.
Interesting though...I see how there could be 20 or 30 point difference baked into the overall ratings based on game but I'm having a hard time walking through how this would happen on the table.
Last edited by BasementDweller; 01-12-2018 at 08:19 AM.
You do have to tweak. We have a small weekly 9 ball tournament handicapped according to the Fargo system. Normally nothing has to be called. When a good player plays an extremely weak player and the races are 7-2 or 6-2, luck can come into too much play in favor of the weaker player so we came up with a call the 9 scenario. However, if you call the 9 and it does not go but another ball is potted, the player at the table has their inning ended. It has worked so far.
All in all, to my sensibilities, Fargo makes sense. When I look at "my favorites" on the Fargrate site, the ratings make a lot of sense to me as far as where I would personally rate the players on my list.
Pool may not build character but it certainly will reveal it.
"Non Impediti Ratione Cogitationis" Unencumbered By The Thought Process
So the question is: How would a 400 fare against a 500 in 8 ball and 9 ball?
Another one of Fargo's major flaws. The skill gap between a 450 and a 550 is rather large. The skill gap between a 550 and a 650 can be massive but the skill difference between a 650 and 750 is pretty small. Mostly mental and the 750 has a higher gear but the 650 can run a set out on a bar table. It's not linear. And the table size means A LOT. But whatever... I'm sure I'm wrong.
