Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, Jan. 2018

Here are some break statistics from the 2018 Derby City Classic's Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge played January 19-22, 2018 at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event won by Roberto Gomez.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:

The event's 15 matches (283 games), all of which were streamed from the same table, were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream:


Fri., Jan. 19 (Round 1)
Sat., Jan. 20 (Round 1, continued)
Sun., Jan. 21 (Round 2)
Mon., Jan. 22 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semifinals and finals)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 62% of the time (176 of 283), won 51% of the games (145 of 283), and broke and ran 21% of the games (60 of 283).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 283 games.


Break-and-run games -- The 60 break-and-run games represented 21% of all 283 games, 41% of the 145 games won by the breaker, and 34% of the 176 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 60 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Immonen), 5 alternate-break 2-packs, and 46 singles.

10-balls on the break -- The 10-ball was made on the break 4 times (1.4% of the 283 breaks), but it was immediately spotted (with the breaker continuing to shoot) rather than counting as a win.

Miscellany from the data for the 2018 Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge:

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once -- by Gorst. He ran out from that break.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4.

• 43% (123 of 283) of the games ended in one inning – 21% (60) won by the breaker (B&R) and 22% (63) won by the non-breaker. 14% (41 of 283) of the games lasted 4 or more innings. The longest game went 12 innings (24 visits).

• 33% (94 of 283) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

• The match loser won an average of 7.9 games in these races to 11. Five matches went to hill/hill; the fewest games won in a match was 4 (once), and the next fewest was 5 (once).

• The longest match in elapsed time, at 161 minutes, was the finals -- Gomez d. Gorst 11-10. The shortest match in elapsed time, at 90 minutes, was Filler d. Shaw 11-7. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts. These two matches were also the ones that were highest and lowest in average minutes per game, at 7.7 and 5.0.

• The average elapsed time for these 15 races to 11 was 118 minutes, averaging 6.3 minutes per game.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 12.3 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.5 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.6 games.

• About 40% of the games involved one or more safeties.

Even though the numbers are small, here are the break-and-run results for each player.

Alcano (1 match) -- 3 B&R out of 11 breaks = 27%
Shaw (1 match) -- 0 of 9 = 0%
Orcollo (1 match) -- 1 of 9 = 11%
Hatch (1 match) -- 2 of 11 = 18%
Juszczyszyn (1 match) -- 1 of 9 = 11%
Pagulayan (1 match) -- 1 of 9 = 11%
Corteza (1 match) -- 0 of 10 = 0%
Deuel (1 match) -- 1 of 10 = 10%

Filler (2 matches) -- 4 of 17 = 24%
Van Boening (2 matches) -- 4 of 20 = 20%
De Luna (2 matches) -- 4 of 17 = 24%
Chinakhov (2 matches) -- 3 of 20 = 15%

Immonen (3 matches) -- 10 of 29 = 34%
Morra (3 matches) -- 5 of 27 = 19%

Gorst (4 matches) -- 7 of 34 = 21%
Gomez (4 matches) -- 14 of 41 = 34%

Total -- 60 of 283 = 21%

As mentioned in post #1, the 60 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (Immonen), 5 alternate-break 2-packs, and 46 singles.

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's:

• for the 15 match winners -- .870 (2017 = .869, 2016 = .878)

• for the 15 match losers -- .833 (2017 = .795, 2016 = .822)

• Total (all 30 TPA's) -- ..852 (2017 = .832, 2016 = .850)

[These mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPA's calculated for each of these 3 groups.]

B&R percentages on successful breaks, by number of balls made on the break, for 2015-2018 Bigfoot events, combined (excluding one match I did not watch in 2015):

Made 1 ball on break, -- ran out 31% of the time (126 of 408)
2 balls -- 34% (53 of 158)
3 balls -- 38% (24 of 63)
4 or 5 balls -- 82% (9 of 11)

On all successful breaks -- 33% (212 of 640)

The semifinal match between Gomez (winner 11-10) and Immonen was terrific.

It had 11 B&R games. The most in any other match was 6, and the average in the other 14 matches was 3½.

Immonen produced an alternate-break 4-pack; no one else broke and ran more than twice in a row.

Immonen trailed by 5 games at 8-3 then won 7 of the next 8 games to get to the hill first.

The total of the 2 players' Accu-Stats TPAs was 1.824. I looked back at the TPAs for all the Bigfoot matches from 2014 forward, and this was the only match where the total of the TPAs was 1.800 or higher. The previous top match in this regard was 1.798 for Shaw d. Morra in 2016.