Break Stats -- 2014 U.S. Open 9-Ball, Oct. 2014

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Petros Andrikop

AzB Silver Member
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sjm said:
That's another excellent post, Petros.

You are so right when you note that superb breakers like SVB, Mike D and Francisco, all of whom are also counted among the best ball pocketers in our game today, are winning with a lot more than the break. This change to nine-on-the-spot has given the rack mechanics a week off, just as tournament director Jay Helfert intended.

Johnny Archer commented on ABR radio that the playing field would be leveled by the break rule in use and the game made more fair by disallowing the racking gurus (and, obviously, Shane, Mike and Francisco are three of them) to wire the corner ball through rack manipulation. These guys have all-around skills good enough to be among the last eight on the winners side in what both Mark Wilson and Jimmy Wych have called the toughest field ever assembled in America in rotation pool.

That said, your point is critical, because how we package the game for players and fans alike is a very important matter. I must admit that I don't believe matches have been slower this year than last, but that's not really the issue here.

As I have often posted, my preference is neutral racker with one on the spot as the way to keep the break fair and the game closer to its traditional form, and I'm growing very tired of those who suggest that the cost would be prohibitive . I think it could be done cost free. Referees are not needed, just volunteers. Nonetheless, if we needed to pay the racker $10 per match, it would have cost just over $1,000 this year and the number of referees willing to do the job would have been countless. If necessary, I myself will fund this in the next US Open.
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Thanks for the reply, in case neutral rackers are not found (for any reason) let's not forget the membrane option, if Diamond will release their own version of the product it should work fine with players racking for the opponent.
 
A

AtLarge

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sjm said:
... Nonetheless, if we needed to pay the racker $10 per match, it would have cost just over $1,000 this year and the number of referees willing to do the job would have been countless. If necessary, I myself will fund this in the next US Open.
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With a standard double-elimination format, the total number of matches for a tournament with N players is 2N-2.

If the final match is true double elimination and it goes to a second set, and you want to count that second set as another match, then the total is 2N-1.

So in the U.S. Open 9-Ball (single set finals), the total number of matches for a full field of 128 players would be 254. At $10 per match, that's $2,540.
 
sjm

sjm

Older and Wiser
Silver Member
AtLarge said:
With a standard double-elimination format, the total number of matches for a tournament with N players is 2N-2.

If the final match is true double elimination and it goes to a second set, and you want to count that second set as another match, then the total is 2N-1.

So in the U.S. Open 9-Ball (single set finals), the total number of matches for a full field of 128 players would be 254. At $10 per match, that's $2,540.
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Oh, yeah, not 125 but 250 matches on the way to the final. Double elimination, duh. Dude, you're costing me money. Maybe I'll only put up half of it!

Thanks again for all your wonderful efforts.
 
A

AtLarge

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 33 9-Ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats from the 2014 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship in Chesapeake, VA.

The conditions for this event included: Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets, blue Simonis 860 cloth, Diamond wooden rack, Aramith Tournament balls, measles cue ball, winner breaks, breaker racks for himself with the 9-ball on the foot string (spot moved up approx. 4") and the 2-ball at the back of the rack, break from the box (approx. 9" to each side of the long string), a 9-ball made on the break spots up if it went in either of the two foot-rail pockets, the break is illegal unless at least 3 balls pass the side pockets or are pocketed, foul on all balls, jump cues are allowed, and all slop counts (except as stated for 9-balls on the break). A 40-sec. shot clock (with one extension per rack) was used on the full-production matches.

The 33 matches (592 games tracked) were as follows. The figures in parentheses for some of the matches are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

Mon., Oct. 13 -- M. Eberle def. N. Feijen 11-8, F. Bustamante (.877) d. N. Milaj (.822) 11-9, J. Pinegar (.910) d, O. Dominguez (.819) 11-9, N. van den Berg (.858) d. S. Moore (.758) 11-6, J. Klatt (.857) d. J. Schmidt (.786) 11-9, and K. Uchigaki d. B. Shuff 11-10. [Note: the data below exclude results for two games that I did not see -- the first two games of the Uchigaki/Shuff match.]​
​
Tues., Oct. 14 -- S. Woodward d. A. Pagulayan 11-8, A. Smith d. A. Rota 11-7, L. Q. Trung (.839) d. S. Morgan (.526) 11-4, L. H. Tao (.892) d. R. Chinakov (.840) 11-9, L. H. Wen (.865) d. M. Davis (.639) 11-3, and M. Immonen d. C. Bartram 11-4.​
​
Wed., Oct 15 -- E. Reyes (.853) d. J. Parica (.628) 11-3, E. Strickland d. D. J. Hu 11-5, A. Pagulayan d. M. Vidal 11-6, M. Dechaine (.900) d. A. Ouschan (.843) 11-9, S. Van Boening (.861) d. E. Strickland (.870) 11-7, and C. Deuel d. J. Shaw 11-10.​
​
Thurs., Oct 16 -- I. Majid (.931) d. W. Can (.887) 11-10, R. Morris d. T. Kennedy 11-8, J. Archer d. S. Woodward 11-5, F. Bustamante (.885) d. T. Hohmann (.725) 11-5, D. Orcollo (.925) d. E. Reyes (.810) 11-5, and N. Feijen d. M. Immonen 11-7.​
​
Fri., Oct 17 -- W. Majid (.895) d. E. Strickland (.820) 11-5, D. Appleton d. J. Morra 11-10, D. Orcollo (.928) d. M. Dechaine (.806) 11-8, J. Hall (.878) d. K. Boyes (.839) 11-10, S. Van Boening (.906) d. D. Orcollo (.855) 11-5, and M. Dechaine d. F. Bustamante 11-10. [Note: the data below exclude results for two games when the stream was down during the Appleton/Morra match.]​
​
Sat., Oct 18 -- S. Van Boening (.909) d. N. Ekonomopoulos (.776) 11-4, D. Orcollo (.921) d. N. Ekonomopoulos (.787) 11-3, and S. Van Boening (.953) d. D. Orcollo (.948) 13-10.​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 53% of the time (315 of 592), won 50% of the games (298 of 592), and broke and ran 20% of the games (119 of 592).

Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 592 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 204 (34% of the 592 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 111 (19%)​
​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 12 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 41 (7%)​
​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 82 (14%)​
Breaker lost the game: 142 (24%)​
​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 50% (298) of all 592 games,​
He won 65% (204 of 315) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 23% (12 of 53) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 37% (82 of 224) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 34% (94 of 277) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

9-balls on the break:
The 119 break-and-run games included just 6 9-balls on the break (1.0% of the 592 breaks). In addition, 3 9-balls (0.5% of the breaks) were made that went in one of the two bottom pockets and had to be spotted rather than counting as wins.

Illegal breaks:
An illegal break (failure to have at least 3 balls pass the side pockets or be pocketed) was called on only 4 of the 592 breaks. Strangely enough, 2 of those 4 were in the final match. One of the 2 in the final match was in the final game; Orcollo surrendered the table on a wet break and Van Boening ran out for the match win. But the total number of illegal breaks was so small that I just ignored those violations for purposes of these stats rather than create any additional categories.

Also see post #1 for a day-by-day accounting of the key break results.
 
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A

AtLarge

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The 33 streamed matches involved 47 different players. Only 5 players were in as many as 3 streamed matches, and only 4 of those players finished high in the event -- Van Boening (4 streamed matches), Orcollo (5 streamed matches), and Dechaine and Bustamante (3 streamed matches for each). Here how the break results compared for those 4 players in their streamed matches.

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:
Van Boening -- 75% (33 of 44)​
Orcollo -- 53% (25 of 47)​
Dechaine -- 90% (26 of 29)​
Bustamante -- 44% (14 of 32)​
Other 43 players -- 49% (217 of 440)​
Total -- 53% (315 of 592)​

Won the game when breaking:
Van Boening -- 59% (26 of 44)​
Orcollo -- 55% (26 of 47)​
Dechaine -- 52% (15 of 29)​
Bustamante -- 59% (19 of 32)​
Other 43 players -- 48% (212 of 440)​
Total -- 50% (298 of 592)​

Break-and-run games:
Van Boening -- 32% (14 of 44)​
Orcollo -- 28% (13 of 47)​
Dechaine -- 28% (8 of 29)​
Bustamante -- 16% (5 of 32)​
Other 43 players -- 18% (79 of 440)​
Total -- 20% (119 of 592)​
 
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Jaden

Jaden

"no buds chill"
Silver Member
one percent is almost nothing...

hang-the-9 said:
It's a bit early for the full stats to even out, but that % change is pretty big at the level those guys play. Even one game out of the set where they may have made a ball last year and did not this year is huge. I think normaly the pro level would allow you only a few errors per set before you end up losing, not making a ball on the break when you could have is a 1 game swing and maybe more. These guys win and lose by single % points in their errors and stats, the guy that plays at 90% vs a guy that plays at 88% could be the winner of the whole thing, the 88% guy could be out in the first match.

Ask Keith how many goofs he thinks he could make in a set against an Earl or a Buddy and still have a good chance at a win, I'm willing to bet not more than 2-3 at most in a race to 11.
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1 percent is only one game in 7 or 8 MATCHES, not one game per match...

Jaden
 
B

BJTyler

AzB Member
Silver Member
AtLarge said:
The 33 streamed matches involved 47 different players. Only 5 players were in as many as 3 streamed matches, and only 4 of those players finished high in the event -- Van Boening (4 streamed matches), Orcollo (5 streamed matches), and Dechaine and Bustamante (3 streamed matches for each). Here how the break results compared for those 4 players in their streamed matches.

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:
  • Van Boening -- 75% (33 of 44)
  • Orcollo -- 53% (25 of 47)
  • Dechaine -- 90% (26 of 29)
  • Bustamante -- 44% (14 of 32)
  • Other 43 players -- 49% (217 of 440)
  • Total -- 53% (315 of 592)

Won the game when breaking:
  • Van Boening -- 59% (26 of 44)
  • Orcollo -- 55% (26 of 47)
  • Dechaine -- 52% (15 of 29)
  • Bustamante -- 59% (19 of 32)
  • Other 43 players -- 48% (212 of 440)
  • Total -- 50% (298 of 592)

Break-and-run games:
  • Van Boening -- 32% (14 of 44)
  • Orcollo -- 28% (13 of 47)
  • Dechaine -- 28% (8 of 29)
  • Bustamante -- 16% (5 of 32)
  • Other 43 players -- 18% (78 of 440)
  • Total -- 20% (118 of 592)
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Awesome stats...thanks!

For these four players, would you happen to have their win percentages when they don't break?
 
A

AtLarge

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BJTyler said:
Awesome stats...thanks!

For these four players, would you happen to have their win percentages when they don't break?
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Won the game when opponent broke:
Van Boening -- 71% (20 of 28)​
Orcollo -- 54% (22 of 41)​
Dechaine -- 48% (15 of 31)​
Bustamante -- 52% (13 of 25)​

[Remember, this is for only the small number of streamed matches.]
 
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S

ssbn610g

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Really interesting!! If they were all pattern racking, I wonder what pattern was used for each and exactly from where they were breaking. I did not watch the stream.

Al
 
P

poolscholar

AzB Silver Member
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If these stats don't convince people certain players are rigging the rack.... I don't know what to tell them. If you watch Dechaine matches, the wing ball was flying straight in. Not suppose to happen. Get a magic rack, rack 9 on the spot and try to break hard with a cut break. See if you can make the wing ball.

AtLarge said:
The 33 streamed matches involved 47 different players. Only 5 players were in as many as 3 streamed matches, and only 4 of those players finished high in the event -- Van Boening (4 streamed matches), Orcollo (5 streamed matches), and Dechaine and Bustamante (3 streamed matches for each). Here how the break results compared for those 4 players in their streamed matches.

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:
  • Van Boening -- 75% (33 of 44)
  • Orcollo -- 53% (25 of 47)
  • Dechaine -- 90% (26 of 29)
  • Bustamante -- 44% (14 of 32)
  • Other 43 players -- 49% (217 of 440)
  • Total -- 53% (315 of 592)

Won the game when breaking:
  • Van Boening -- 59% (26 of 44)
  • Orcollo -- 55% (26 of 47)
  • Dechaine -- 52% (15 of 29)
  • Bustamante -- 59% (19 of 32)
  • Other 43 players -- 48% (212 of 440)
  • Total -- 50% (298 of 592)

Break-and-run games:
  • Van Boening -- 32% (14 of 44)
  • Orcollo -- 28% (13 of 47)
  • Dechaine -- 28% (8 of 29)
  • Bustamante -- 16% (5 of 32)
  • Other 43 players -- 18% (78 of 440)
  • Total -- 20% (118 of 592)
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dr_dave

dr_dave

Instructional Author
Gold Member
Silver Member
AtLarge,

Thanks again for performing this awesome service to the pool community. I always look forward to seeing the stats after every big tournament.

FYI, as always, I've added the summary to the break stats resource page, where they can be easily compared to the stats you've posted from previous tournaments.

Thanks again, and I hope you plan to continue to do this.

Great work,
Dave
 
A

AtLarge

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poolscholar said:
If these stats don't convince people certain players are rigging the rack.... I don't know what to tell them. If you watch Dechaine matches, the wing ball was flying straight in. Not suppose to happen. Get a magic rack, rack 9 on the spot and try to break hard with a cut break. See if you can make the wing ball.
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In Dechaine's 3 streamed matches, he made at least one ball without fouling on 26 of 29 breaks. The wing ball went straight in the corner pocket on the side from which he was breaking approximately 60% of those 26 wet breaks.
 
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poolscholar

AzB Silver Member
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AtLarge said:
In Dechaine's 3 streamed matches, he made at least one ball without fouling on 26 of 29 breaks. The wing ball went straight in the corner pocket on the side from which he was breaking approximately 60% of those 26 wet breaks.
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I bet a lot of players didn't even make any ball 60% of the time. It is funny how all the people saying the racking doesn't matter that much, blah blah blah... are not replying in this thread. People will believe what they want to confirm their own biases, even in the face of facts.
 
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