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Colin Colenso
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$35K challenge Match btw Australia's Best - 12-13-2014, 02:45 AM

Last night two of Australia's best 8 ball players played a race to 35 with $35k going to the winner.

Details, video link and stats analysis follow:

Rusty v Jake Race to 35 for $35k – 12 December 2014

Rusty 29 v Jake McCartney 35
http://new.livestream.com/gotocourt/events/3649790

Break Analysis
Each player had 32 Breaks!
Legal Wet Breaks: Rusty 21/32 ( 66%), Jake 17/32 (53%)
Foul Breaks: Rusty 4/32 (2 Wet, 2 Dry) (12.5%), Jake 7/32 (3 Wet, 4 Dry) (22%)
Dry Non-Foul Breaks: Rusty 7/32 (22%), Jake 8/32 (25%)
Games won on Break: Rusty 14/32 (44%), Jake 17/32 (53%) – Overall 31/64 (48%) – so much for the theory that the breaker has a significant advantage!

Clearance Analysis

Break & Run: Rusty 10/32 (31%), Jake 8/32 (25%)
Break & Run from Legal Wet Break: Rusty 10/21 (48%), Jake 8/17 (47%)
Run out from Opponent’s Dry Break: Rusty 2/8 (25%), Jake 1/7 (14%)
Run out from Opponent’s Foul Break: Rusty 5/7 (71%), Jake 4/4 (100%)
Opportunities After Break: Rusty 36/64 (56%), Jake 28/64 (44%)
Clearance After Break per Opportunity: Rusty 17/36 (47%), Jake 13/28 (46%), Overall 30/64 (47%)
Wins from Open Games (When game wasn’t won after break): Rusty 12/34 (35%), Jake 22/34 (65%)

Short Summary
Rusty had significantly better results from the breaks getting 56% of first visit opportunities after the break. Both players had nearly identical clearance stats in the early game. In extended game play, Jake’s strength via strategy and/or creativity was nearly twice as good, which allowed him to overcome the break advantage Rusty achieved. This is the opposite of much of the commentary speculation, which assumed Jake was dominating via his break v Rusty’s poor break.


Quote:
"The first essential step in the direction of learning any subject is to find principles of numerical reckoning and practicable methods for measuring some quality connected with it. I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind." - Lord Kelvin
  
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