Breaking Stats -- Turning Stone XVIII 9-Ball, Dec. 2011

AtLarge

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I watched 11 of the Turning Stone XVIII 9-ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats/AZB. The conditions for this event included: Diamond table, Simonis cloth, Diamond wooden rack, winner breaks, loser racks, break from the box, fouls on all balls, no jump cues allowed, all slop counts.

The 11 matches (168 games) I watched were as follows:

Fri., Dec. 16
Hatch def. Appleton 9-8.​
Sat., Dec. 17
Dechaine d. Hatch 9-6, O. Dominguez d. Bautista 9-5, Van Boening d. Nevel 9-5​
Morris d. Putnam 9-5, Shuff d. Klatt 9-5​
Sun, Dec. 18
Hundal d. Souquet 9-5, Van Boening d. Dechaine 9-8, Hundal d. Morris 9-4​
Van Boening d. Morris 9-5, Van Boening d. Hundal 13-9​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 65% of the time (110 of 168), won 53% of the games (89 of 168), and broke and ran 23% of the games (39 of 168).

Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 168 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 72 (43% of the 168 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 38 (23%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 6 (4%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 15 (9%)​
Breaker lost the game: 35 (21%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 53% (89) of all 168 games,​
He won 65% (72 of 110) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 25% (2 of 8) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 30% (15 of 50) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 29% (17 of 58) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

9-balls on the break -- The 39 break-and-run games included 4 9-balls on the break (2.4% of the 168 breaks). Strangely, 3 of the 4 9-balls on the break occurred in a single match!
 
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Thanks again to ATLarge for compiling these statistics.The frequency of being seen can provide a better interpretation of where edge is gained or lost.Story telling with numbers.
 
So what were the numbers for pushes at this event? Conventional wisdom is that the player who pushes out is at a disadvantage, because it is the other player who then has the choice on whether to shoot.

Out of the 168 games that I watched in 11 streamed matches, 26 games (15%) involved a push out, and the results were as follows:
  • Breaker pushed and won the game -- 9
  • Breaker pushed and lost the game -- 8
  • Non-breaker pushed and won the game -- 8
  • Non-breaker pushed and lost the game -- 1
So, overall, the person who pushed won 17 of the 26 games (65%) and lost 9 (35%). But breakers who pushed came out about even, while non-breakers who pushed won all but 1 of their 9 pushes!

The pusher winning 65% of the time contradicts conventional wisdom. The sample size this time, however, is quite small. [At this year's US Open, the pusher in streamed matches won 46% of the 68 games that involved pushes.]

One other interesting fact about the Turning Stone pushes is that 12 of the 26 pushes were returned (passed back to the pusher to shoot), and the pusher won 9 of those 12 games (75%). So beware of passing the inning back to the pusher!
 
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