Breaking Stats -- Derby City Classic Fatboy 10-Ball, Jan. 2012

AtLarge

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I watched all 5 of the Derby City Classic Fatboy Challenge 10-ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats.

The conditions for this event included: Diamond 9-foot table, Simonis cloth, Diamond wooden rack, winner breaks, rack your own, break from anywhere behind the line, no jump cues allowed, all slop counts except spot any 10-ball made on the break in either foot-rail pocket.

The 5 matches (115 games) were as follows:

Tues., Jan. 24 -- Bustamante def. Van Boening 15-9.​
Wed., Jan. 25 -- Pagulayan d. Morris 15-9.​
Fri., Jan. 27 -- Moore d. Pagulayan 15-12 (Semifinal) and Bustamante d. Morra 15-5 (Semifinal).​
Sat., Jan. 28 -- Bustamante d. Moore 15-5 (Final).​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 56% of the time (64 of 115), won 55% of the games (63 of 115), and broke and ran 19% of the games (22 of 115).

Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 115 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 41 (36% of the 115 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 23 (20%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 4 (3%)​
Breaker lost the game: 10 (9%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 18 (16%)​
Breaker lost the game: 19 (17%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 55% (63) of all 115 games,​
He won 64% (41 of 64) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 29% (4 of 14) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 49% (18 of 37) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 43% (22 of 51) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​
10-balls on the break -- The 22 break-and-run games included just 1 10-ball on the break that counted (0.9% of the 115 breaks). [In addition, 2 10-balls were made on the break that had to be spotted.]
 
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AtLarge

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9-Ball for Comparison

For comparison, here are some break stats for the 2012 DCC 9-ball event. The only 9-ball matches that I saw Accu-Stats stream were these 5 matches on Saturday:

- Appleton def. Stalev 7-3
- Dechaine d. Vann Corteza 7-3
- Van Boening d. Pagulayan 7-3
- Van Boening d. Dechaine 7-0
- Van Boening d. Moore 7-3

Note that the stats, therefore, represent quite a small number of games -- just 47 in total -- and one player was in 3 of the 5 matches.

The overall results were that the breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 79% of the time (37 of 47), won 66% of the games (31 of 47), and broke and ran 32% of the games (15 of 47).

These results are abnormally high compared to what we have been seeing in other events over the past year. But the data sample is small, the matches were all by the top players near the end of the event, and they had pretty well found the sweet spot for breaking on that table.

No 9-balls were made on the break.
 
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The Chinchilla

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For comparison, here are some break stats for the 2012 DCC 9-ball event. The only 9-ball matches that I saw Accu-Stats stream were these 5 matches on Saturday:

- Appleton def. Stalev 7-3
- Dechaine d. Vann Corteza 7-3
- Van Boening d. Pagulayan 7-3
- Van Boening d. Dechaine 7-0
- Van Boening d. Moore 7-3

Note that the stats, therefore, represent quite a small number of games -- just 47 in total -- and one player was in 3 of the 5 matches.

The overall results were that the breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 79% of the time (37 of 47), won 66% of the games (31 of 47), and broke and ran 32% of the games (15 of 47).

These results are abnormally high compared to what we have been seeing in other events over the past year. But the data sample is small, the matches were all by the top players near the end of the event, and they had pretty well found the sweet spot for breaking on that table.

No 9-balls were made on the break.

Wow, i'm a broken record, but that 66% stat there is just so amazing. Opponent racks and winner breaks always laid at even money.... that is a 16% difference with rack your own. That is the way it should be, no doubt... glad we have finally gotten there. Guy getting bad racks certainly isn't "pool," but simply a crapshoot.
 

AtLarge

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Anyone notice that these 10 streamed matches (5 in 10-ball and 5 in 9-ball) were quite lopsided? No hill/hill thrillers.

Only one of the 10 matches was as close as a 3-game margin of victory.

And for the 10 matches combined, it was 110 games for the winners and only 52 for the losers.
 
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