Break Stats -- Southern Classic (Tunica) 10-Foot 10-Ball, July 2012

AtLarge

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I watched 6 of the Diamond 10-Foot 10-Ball Challenge matches streamed by Inside Pool and Accu-Stats from the Southern Classic in Tunica, MS.

The conditions for this event included: Diamond 10-foot tables with 4 7/16" corner pockets, Simonis cloth, Diamond wooden rack, winner breaks, rack your own, break from anywhere behind the line, no jump cues allowed, all slop counts except spot any 10-ball made on the break in either foot-rail pocket, and a 40-second shot clock (last 3 matches only).

The 6 matches (150 games) were as follows:

Tues., July 24 -- Johnny Archer def. Stevie Moore 15-14 (but these stats include only 21 of the 29 games because of 8 games missed when the stream was down).​
Wed., July 25 -- Strickland d. Van Boening 15-14.​
Thurs., July 26 (actually, early AM the 27th) -- Shuffett def. Strickland 15-4.​
Fri., July 27 -- Pagulayan d. Shuffett 15-10; Archer d. Orcollo 15-12; and Pagulayan d. Archer 15 - 14.​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 53% of the time (80 of 150), won 52% of the games (78 of 150), and broke and ran 9% of the games (13 of 150).

Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 150 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 48 (32% of the 150 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 32 (21%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 4 (3%)​
Breaker lost the game: 6 (4%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 26 (17%)​
Breaker lost the game: 34 (23%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 52% (78) of all 150 games,​
He won 60% (48 of 80) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 40% (4 of 10) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 43% (26 of 60) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 43% (30 of 70) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

10-balls on the break: None that counted as a win; two that were spotted.
 
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A reasonable question is how do the break stats compare -- 10-footer versus 9-footer?

The event in Tunica this week was the equivalent of the Fatboy Challenge at DCC except for the table size. So let's compare the results from the last Fatboy Challenge (Jan. 2012) with those from Tunica this week.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
53% (80 of 150) on the 10-footer​
56% (64 of 115) on the 9-footer​

Breaker won the game:
52% (78 of 150) on the 10-footer​
55% (63 of 115) on the 9-footer​

Break-and-run games:
9% (13 of 150) on the 10-footer​
19% (22 of 115) on the 9-footer​

Observations: The percentages for wet breaks and for breaker winning the game were down just slightly on the 10-footer vs. the 9-footer. But break-and-run games were much more rare on the 10-footer. In fact, on the Accu-Stats table for the two semi-final matches and the final match, only 3 break-and-runs were achieved in 81 games (4%).

Caveat -- The number of games represented here is still pretty small, so generalizing from these results might not be appropriate.
 
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Interesting!!!

Thanks Atlarge I found your stats to be very informative and interesting,
well done.
 
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