Break Stats -- Turning Stone XX 9-Ball, Jan. 2013

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AtLarge

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I watched all 21 of the Turning Stone XX 9-ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats/AZB. The conditions for this event included: 9-foot Diamond table, Simonis cloth, Diamond wooden rack, winner breaks, loser racks (unless both players want breaker racks), break from the box, fouls on all balls, no jump cues allowed, all slop counts.

The 21 matches were as follows:

Thurs., Jan. 10​
Hohmann def. Antonakos 9-3, Deuel d. Michas 9-1, Corr d. Carroll 9-6,​
Kielar d. Shuff 9-8.​
​
Fri., Jan. 11​
Hohmann d. Klatt 9-2, Shuff d. Fernandez 9-5, Archer d. Chau 9-6,​
Klatt d. Shuff 9-8, Archer d. Hatch 9-7, Zvi d. Pinkston 9-3​
​
Sat., Jan. 12​
Morra d. Saez 9-6, Shaw d. Dominguez 9-6, Hatch d. Kielar 9-7,​
Alcano d. Engel 9-6, Van Boening d. Shaw 9-8, Hohmann d. Deuel 9-8​
​
Sun., Jan. 13​
Dechaine d. Hatch 9-3, Hohmann d. Corr 9-5, Archer d. Van Boening 9-8,​
Van Boening d. Hohmann 9-6, Van Boening d. Archer 13-5​
​
[Note -- These 21 matches totaled 310 games. But because the stream was down or frozen for me for the start of 3 of these games, my stats are for 307 games.]​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 58% of the time (177 of 307), won 51% of the games (156 of 307), and broke and ran 19% of the games (58 of 307).

The break-and-run percentage was twice as high on the final day (30% of 76 games) as it was for the first three days combined (15% of 231 games).

Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 307 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 108 (35% of the 307 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 69 (22%)​
​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 5 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 25 (8%)​
​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 43 (14%)​
Breaker lost the game: 57 (19%)​
​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 51% (156) of all 307 games,​
He won 61% (108 of 177) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 17% (5 of 30) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 43% (43 of 100) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 37% (48 of 130) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

9-balls on the break:
The 58 break-and-run games included 6 9-balls on the break (2.0% of the 307 breaks).
 
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WoW! That took a lot of time and effort collecting all that information.

Thank you so much. That's great and interesting information. Thanks for sharing it with us :thumbup:

Sent from my SCH-I400 using Tapatalk 2
 
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This is FANTASTIC information.

AtLarge said:
I watched all 21 of the Turning Stone XX 9-ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats/AZB. The conditions for this event included: 9-foot Diamond table, Simonis cloth, Diamond wooden rack, winner breaks, loser racks (unless both players want breaker racks), break from the box, fouls on all balls, no jump cues allowed, all slop counts.

The 21 matches were as follows:
Thurs., Jan. 10 -- Hohmann def. Antonakos 9-3, Deuel d. Michas 9-1, Corr d. Carroll 9-6, and Kielar d. Shuff 9-8.

Fri., Jan. 11 -- Hohmann d. Klatt 9-2, Shuff d. Fernandez 9-5, Archer d. Chau 9-6, Klatt d. Shuff 9-8, Archer d. Hatch 9-7, and Zvi d. Pinkston 9-3.

Sat., Jan. 12 -- Morra d. Saez 9-6, Shaw d. Dominguez 9-6, Hatch d. Kielar 9-7, Alcano d. Engel 9-6, Van Boening d. Shaw 9-8, and Hohmann d. Deuel 9-8.

Sun., Jan. 13 -- Dechaine d. Hatch 9-3, Hohmann d. Corr 9-5, Archer d. Van Boening 9-8, Van Boening d. Hohmann 9-6, and Van Boening d. Archer 13-5.

[Note -- These 21 matches totaled 310 games. But because the stream was down or frozen for me for the start of 3 of these games, my stats are for 307 games.]​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 58% of the time (177 of 307), won 51% of the games (156 of 307), and broke and ran 19% of the games (58 of 307).

The break-and-run percentage was twice as high on the final day (30% of 76 games) as it was for the first three days combined (15% of 231 games).

Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 307 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 108 (35% of the 307 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 69 (22%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 5 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 25 (8%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 43 (14%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 57 (19%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 51% (156) of all 307 games,
- He won 61% (108 of 177) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
- He won 17% (5 of 30) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
- He won 43% (43 of 100) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
- He won 37% (48 of 130) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

9-balls on the break:
The 58 break-and-run games included 5 9-balls on the break (1.6% of the 307 breaks).
Click to expand...

This is FANTASTIC information.....thanks a lot for your efforts "AtLarge"....this helps the game be the teacher much more effectively. :)
 
Always a great read!

I always look for your stats post after the big tournament! Keep up the great work AtLarge!
 
9 ball Break & Run Summary

I thought it would be interesting to see the B & R % in aggregate from what you have compiled from several events. Results as follows:

Event Games Played Break & Runs Break & Run %
Break Stats -- Turning Stone XX 9-Ball, Jan. 2013 307 58 18.89%
Break Stats -- 2012 Mosconi Cup, Dec. 2012 79 22 27.85%
Break Stats -- 2012 US Open 9-Ball, Oct. 2012 638 145 22.73%
Break Stats -- Turning Stone XIX 9-Ball, Aug. 2012 147 31 21.09%
Break Stats -- Tunica 9-Foot 9-Ball, July 2012 82 24 29.27%
Breaking Stats -- 2011 US Open 9-Ball 660 137 20.76%
Breaking Stats -- Turn. Stone XVIII 9-Ball, Dec. 2011 168 39 23.21%
Breaking Stats -- Turning Stone XVII 9-Ball 184 40 21.74%


Total games played: 2,265
Total B& R games: 496
Total B & R %: 21.90%


Interesting to see that out of 2,265 games played, 21.9% were won by break and run.
 
10 ball B & R summary for comparison

This is from a previous post in another thread to use for possible comparison:

Event, B & R's , Total Games Played, B & R %
Tunica 10-Foot 10-Ball July 2012, 13, 150, 8.67%
Derby City Classic 10-Ball Jan. 2012 22, 115, 19.13%
Turning Stone XVII 10-Ball 70, 375, 18.67%
10-Ball Masters event in Virginia 49, 256, 19.14%
SBE 10-Ball Pro Players Championship in Pennsylvania 21, 119, 17.65%
Johnny Archer Classic 10-Ball, Oct. 2012 19, 86, 22.09%

Total 194, 1101, 17.62%
 
Looks like 10 ball produced a break and run 4.28% less than 9 ball. I am not convinced that this % difference is all that significant when weighing the 10 ball vs. 9 ball debate. Some folks say that 9 ball is WAY easier than 10 ball. I'm not sure that the data supports this conclusion, but I guess it is a matter of opinion.

Thanks again Atlarge!
 
Atlarge, thank you again for the stats. Seriously, this work is invaluable to any pool player.

I think the big take-away here is this - Obviously, the first person to be at the table after the break has the advantage (which is something I think any pool player could have guessed). However, examining the array of percentages leads us to a few conclusions. 1. Don't scratch. Scratching consistently has the most dramatic impact on winning and losing. 2. Do your best to make a ball but not at the risk of scratching. Your chances of winning improve to 2:1 just by making a ball on the break but if you're scratching half the time, you've negated your advantage.

If anything, I think this proves that the alternate-break format might be a bit over-rated. The average break amongst professionals already possesses a coin-flip scenario.
 
jalapus logan said:
Looks like 10 ball produced a break and run 4.28% less than 9 ball. I am not convinced that this % difference is all that significant when weighing the 10 ball vs. 9 ball debate. Some folks say that 9 ball is WAY easier than 10 ball. I'm not sure that the data supports this conclusion, but I guess it is a matter of opinion.

Thanks again Atlarge!
Click to expand...

Actually 10-ball produced a break-and-run 20% less often than 9-ball did (21.9% vs. 17.62%). It's basically 20% more difficult to break-and-run in 10-ball than it is in 9-ball. I think that's a pretty significant difference...although my record in both games is 0% :grin-square:

Interesting that a 10% increase in balls on the table (10 vs. 9) results in a 20% increase in difficulty. The great thing is that the sample size is so big (3000+ games) that the numbers are very stable.
 
Hey AtLarge,

Thanks for continuing to do this. I'm one of those guys that finds this shit interesting. I like seeing how much (or not) of a factor that the break is.


Eric
 
bdorman said:
Actually 10-ball produced a break-and-run 20% less often than 9-ball did (21.9% vs. 17.62%). It's basically 20% more difficult to break-and-run in 10-ball than it is in 9-ball. I think that's a pretty significant difference...although my record in both games is 0% :grin-square:

Interesting that a 10% increase in balls on the table (10 vs. 9) results in a 20% increase in difficulty. The great thing is that the sample size is so big (3000+ games) that the numbers are very stable.
Click to expand...

This difference is non-zero, for sure. But, at least to me, it does not add any ammunition to the arsenal of those who say 9 ball is a "bad" game or is too "easy". For the record, I like both games and think they both have their place.
 
jalapus logan -- Thanks for consolidating the B&R results from past events and comparing 9-ball vs. 10-ball. I was planning to do some summarizing across events at some point, and you've made a good start. I think it's important to keep several factors in mind when comparing across events (e.g., breaking from anywhere behind the line vs. the break box, breaking your own racks vs. not, the size of the table, and the size of the sample), but the overall comparisons are interesting as well.

Glad you, too, like the numbers!
 
AtLarge said:
jalapus logan -- Thanks for consolidating the B&R results from past events and comparing 9-ball vs. 10-ball. I was planning to do some summarizing across events at some point, and you've made a good start. I think it's important to keep several factors in mind when comparing across events (e.g., breaking from anywhere behind the line vs. the break box, breaking your own racks vs. not, the size of the table, and the size of the sample), but the overall comparisons are interesting as well.

Glad you, too, like the numbers!
Click to expand...

I do like the numbers. Quite a bit actually. I also appreciate your thoughs above as well. I also think that it is worth noting that the matches you compiled (forgive me if I mis-speak here) are from the TV table matches from misc. event. As such, I think that it is safe to say that this represents the cream of the crop that producers saw fit to highlight as marquee matches. Thus, it likely follows that true overall performance stats are somewhere south of these figures presented, especially if the event is an "open" event. Very enlightening to see these numbers from the best of the best! Thanks again.
 
Jude Rosenstock said:
... Your chances of winning improve to 2:1 just by making a ball on the break but if you're scratching half the time, you've negated your advantage.

If anything, I think this proves that the alternate-break format might be a bit over-rated. The average break amongst professionals already possesses a coin-flip scenario.
Click to expand...

Not quite 2:1 in this event. The breaker won 61% of the wet breaks and 37% of the fouled or dry breaks.

As to the coin-flip comment, you're right that the results quite often are right around 50% for the breaker winning the game. But the overall results include, of course, both weaker and stronger players. I imagine the very top players would always prefer to be breaking.

Here is sort of an extreme example, singling out SVB from yesterday. On Sunday, he broke 30 times in his 3 streamed matches. He broke wet without fouling 21 times (70%), won 21 times on his break (70%), and had 13 B&R games (43%).

If we subtract SVB's Sunday results from the overall 4-day results, the other 277 games showed: the breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 56% of the time (instead of 58% with SVB), won 49% of the games (instead of 51% with SVB), and broke and ran 16% of the games (instead of 19% with SVB).

So it may be a coin flip overall, but not so much for some of the top guys.
 
jalapus logan said:
... I also think that it is worth noting that the matches you compiled (forgive me if I mis-speak here) are from the TV table matches from misc. event. As such, I think that it is safe to say that this represents the cream of the crop that producers saw fit to highlight as marquee matches. Thus, it likely follows that true overall performance stats are somewhere south of these figures presented, especially if the event is an "open" event. Very enlightening to see these numbers from the best of the best! Thanks again.
Click to expand...

Right you are -- they try to pick an interesting match from those available for each time slot. So they probably always have at least one good player, but we still see some sub-par performances, especially from players who are not used to being in the spotlight of streaming.
 
AtLarge said:
Not quite 2:1 in this event. The breaker won 61% of the wet breaks and 37% of the fouled or dry breaks.

As to the coin-flip comment, you're right that the results quite often are right around 50% for the breaker winning the game. But the overall results include, of course, both weaker and stronger players. I imagine the very top players would always prefer to be breaking.

Here is sort of an extreme example, singling out SVB from yesterday. On Sunday, he broke 30 times in his 3 streamed matches. He broke wet without fouling 21 times (70%), won 21 times on his break (70%), and had 13 B&R games (43%).

If we subtract SVB's Sunday results from the overall 4-day results, the other 277 games showed: the breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 56% of the time (instead of 58% with SVB), won 49% of the games (instead of 51% with SVB), and broke and ran 16% of the games (instead of 19% with SVB).

So it may be a coin flip overall, but not so much for some of the top guys.
Click to expand...

Wow, SVB's influence over these stats is very interesting. I wonder how he's done in past events and if he's maintained something resembling a 2:1 advantage.
 
What were the numbers for pushes at the Turning Stone XX event? Conventional wisdom is that the player who pushes out is at a disadvantage, because it is the other player who then has the choice on whether to shoot.

Out of the 307 games in 21 streamed matches, 32 games (10%) involved a push out, and the results were as follows:
  • Breaker pushed and won the game -- 9
  • Breaker pushed and lost the game -- 11
  • Non-breaker pushed and won the game -- 8
  • Non-breaker pushed and lost the game -- 4
So, overall, the person who pushed won 17 of the 32 games (53%) and lost 15 (47%). Breakers who pushed came out fairly even, while non-breakers who pushed won a substantial majority of their pushes.

The pusher winning 53% of the time contradicts conventional wisdom. But, as before, the sample size is quite small.

Of the 32 pushes, 14 were returned (passed back to the pusher to shoot), and the pusher won 7 of those 14 games.

For comparison, here are essentially the same posts regarding the Turning Stone XIX event from last August and the Turning Stone XVIII event from December, 2011:
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=3742685&postcount=9
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=3363888&postcount=5
 
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