How to Eliminate Luck in Pool

TSW

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
There's been a lot of discussion lately about the role of luck in pool. Personally I don't think it's that big of an issue, but since it's a hot topic, I offer here my solution to remove pretty much all luck from a tournament and leave only skill.

There are two primary causes of luck in pool: the opponent and the break shot. Eliminate them both and you go a long way towards making a pool game based on skill alone.

Here's my proposal, tentatively called Runout 8 Ball:

Play a pool tournament like a golf tournament. Each day of a tournament would consist of 18 pre-determined 8 ball layouts. The layouts would be prepared using software like the Wei cuetable program. For example, a layout could start with the "8 ball break" function on Cuetable and be adjusted by the tournament director(s) for difficulty (e.g., creating clusters, blocking pockets, and so on).

A typical tournament would work like this:


  • Set up a row of 9 tables. Each table is designated for a particular layout, and the table is marked (say, with tailors' chalk) prior to play for easy repositioning of balls.

  • A player starts on Table 1 and has one opportunity to run out Layout 1. Play starts with cue ball in hand anywhere on the table. From that point, standard 8 ball rules apply. The player must pocket a called ball to select a suit, then must run out that suit through the 8 ball. Call ball, call pocket. If the player runs out successfully, he gets 1 point. If he does not run out, he gets 0 points.

  • The player then progresses to Table 2 and attempts Layout 2. And so on. At the end of the "front nine," the player's score can range from a maximum of 9 to a minimum of 0.

  • Each layout would have a strict game clock of five minutes. Take as long as you want planning a runout or a particular shot, but if your five minutes expires before running out, you get 0 points.

  • You can also utilize a shotgun start (especially in the early rounds) to keep the tournament moving.

  • The tournament could have as many or as few layouts as desired, but to keep with the golf analogy, let's posit two 9-layout rounds per day (for a total of 18 layouts per day), over a stretch of four days, leading to a total of 72 layouts. Maximum score over all four days would be a 72. You can also set up a cut line after day 2 to keep with the golf analogy, where only the top half of the field continues to the weekend. Highest total score over the four days is the winner. In the weekend rounds, players start play in reverse standings order, so the leaders are all playing at the end and at the same time, like in golf. In the event of a tie, there would be a sudden-death playoff with new layouts.

Why 8 ball?

It's the most creative game for an offense-only setup. Each player is confronted with the same layout, but by starting with cue ball in hand anywhere and choice of suit, there are a large number of potential patterns. Watching the same rotation rack over and over would be endlessly boring. Straight pool would be too easy. 8 ball offers the right balance of difficulty and creativity. Also it's the most recognizable game for amateurs.

Pros:

  1. There is no luck. No arguing over racking or breaking. No bad beats or tough draws. Everyone plays the same layout and starts with ball in hand. If you don't run out, it's your own fault.

  2. The tournament schedule is very predictable. At a maximum of 5 minutes per rack, plus, say, 5 minutes to re-set the balls, total the scores, and move everyone down one table, you know that each layout will take 10 minutes. Multiply out for the number of players and the number of tables available, and you have a schedule that actually works. Players will never have to wait to play past the posted starting time, and fans will never suffer that unpredictability.

  3. All players are guaranteed to play at least two days, or 36 layouts. And there's a good chance that all the top players will make it past the cut. Promoters do not have to worry about a top player losing early and leaving the venue.

  4. The layouts can be shared before, during, and after the tournament. You could easily take a layout to the pool room and try it yourself. And you can compare your pattern to the pros' patterns. Also the 8 balll format would help expand the game to casual players.

  5. Alternatively, the layouts could be kept secret until play begins, making the players think through a tough runout on the fly, like a regular match. The game clock becomes a much bigger deal here. And this gives the leaders an advantage, as they have more time to review the layouts before starting their round. The challenge would be preventing leaks, which is why I'm defaulting to releasing all layouts in advance.


Cons:

  1. It may be very boring to watch the same layout over and over again. On the other hand, if the layout is sufficiently challenging, maybe it would be interesting to compare the various patterns. I don't know if this would be interesting or boring.

  2. It may not work well for live streaming. This depends a lot on how boring (or not) the format turns out to be. Ideally TV coverage would work like golf, with cameras on each table and the ability to follow a particular player over various layouts. But that may not be cost-efficient given today's technology.

  3. You would need a scorekeeper/ball replacer/referee on each table. That might get prohibitively expensive. And you would have to be very precise about the ball markings and ball replacement.

  4. You would need an interested tournament director to design layouts that are interesting and at the right level of difficulty. Not too hard, not too easy. Many realistic patterns. It's akin to the job of a golf course designer. I don't know how easy or hard it would be to do this.

  5. There is no safety play. Personally I love watching good safety battles, so that's a real tough thing to give up. However there is still creativity in pattern selection. So it's not a total loss.


At the end of the day I think you would see the same people winning. I certainly don't think this is a replacement for the regular tournament format, but I would be very curious to see it played occasionally at the highest level.


All thoughts welcome. And apologies for the length of this post - kudos to anyone who made it all the way through.

- Geoff
 
Conceptually I actually Like it... Change the scoring tho... And let em keep shooting.... RUN out no points... Miss once you are 1 over... miss twice and you have a good old double bogey... Par would be zero and no one could break it but shooting par for the whole day would be rough action with the right layouts....

Chris
 
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Conceptually I actually Like it... Change the scoring tho... And let em keep shooting.... RUN out no points... Miss once you are 1 over... miss twice and you have a good old double bogey... Par would be zero and no one could break it but shooting par for the whole day would be rough action with the right layouts....

Chris

I want to keep the scoring simple, which is why I laid it out with a binary 1/0 concept. I'd be happy to see it played with different scoring if that worked in practice.
 
This is the biggest reason no one plays 14.1.......the lack of luck in the game. 14.1 has the least amount of luck factor than 9 ball or 8 ball.

You miss in 14.1, you can be punished for it unlike in 9 ball where you can miss and because of the luck of the roll, leave no shot, same in 8 ball. And because of the luck of the roll, you have no shot not because the other player planned a perfect safety, but was just plain lucky in getting the perfect safety. I can tell the difference.

I've often said, you can not beat luck, during a short race 9 ball match. But I have never said such a thing when in a 14.1 match.

Whenever I hear that there is too much luck in pool, right away I know whoever is saying this does not play 14.1.

Plus being a point game, getting behind in the points hurts. Try being 15 points behind after the opening break in a race to 50. I've been there and have come from behind for the win. This type of satisfaction is missing in the format being presented in the OP. Sometimes you just want to crush your opponent, let them know you came to play.

Safety play is a big part of the games also. With this idea, there is no safety play. There is no one on one battles. Some of my best 8 ball games were the ones with safety battles. Some of the best games I've watched has had safety battles in them.

Since 14.1 is all call ball and call pocket even the break, 14.1 is normally started with a safety shot as a break, so there are very little issues with the rack.

If there is too much luck in the game you are playing, try 14.1. I mean it is so simple, any ball in any pocket, just got to call what ball in what pocket.

Or, if you don't want to change your game, then play heads up, with long races to even out the rolls. The more luck in a game, the longer the races need to be.

But, 14.1 also requires more skill in knowing how the balls move, how to see problems and taking care of them asap. Doing high runs in 14.1 is not because of luck, but skill.

FWIW
 
This is the biggest reason no one plays 14.1.......the lack of luck in the game. 14.1 has the least amount of luck factor than 9 ball or 8 ball.

....

FWIW

I enjoy 14.1. But 14.1 still has problems. Your opponent can run 150 and out on you and knock you out. That's not "bad luck" in the classic sense but in a way it is. In any match play format, you run the risk of your opponent catching a gear and playing above his head.

I'm proposing a new type of tournament where that can't happen. Everyone has equal opportunities to score.

To be clear, this is not meant to replace traditional tournaments or disciplines. What it is intended to do is minimize luck as much as possible.
 
I enjoy 14.1. But 14.1 still has problems. Your opponent can run 150 and out on you and knock you out. That's not "bad luck" in the classic sense but in a way it is. In any match play format, you run the risk of your opponent catching a gear and playing above his head.

I'm proposing a new type of tournament where that can't happen. Everyone has equal opportunities to score.

To be clear, this is not meant to replace traditional tournaments or disciplines. What it is intended to do is minimize luck as much as possible.

that is why you play round robin.. that then seeds a single elimination tournament.. everyone plays everyone to determine seeding... y'know like real sports...

that's why 14.1 world champion is THE list... and all the rest is merely hustler horseshit

the true test never left... the players did
 
I like it!

But not to end luck..., the problem is there arent enough opportunities to get lucky. If there were more toury's that paid more a guy could loose and go to the next stop and try to get his chance at getting lucky...,

That doesnt happen because there are not enough tourny's and the most of them dont pay well.

I think that a skills tourny with your new game would be cool, something different and fun towatch.
 
The better the players are, the less luck is in the game. Fact!
But a little amount of luck will always be included. This is kind of the *salt* in the game imo. Rolls will always be something to discuss......it just happens.
In golf noone discuss about this- strange, hm?
Again..just in pool...
 
Or just play bankpool. The game with THE least amount of luck and the most amount of skill and poolball knowledge. Did I say the least amount of luck?:thumbup: John B.
 
Really?

Not that I object to your game or idea. But why does everyone want to get rid of a part of life? Luck is in everything, either good or bad and should not be eliminated. As others have said, better players overcome luck in the long run.

Tiger Woods hit a great shot in the Masters, hit the pin, and the ball rolled into the drink. Under many peoples premise of eliminating luck, he probably should have gotten credit for holing the shot, right?
 
Luck !

Sometimes I hate the APA,.....butits the only league around here. "Luck",..... slop,...whatever you wanna call it counts in APA scoring so long as you hit your ball first. I can kind of understand that concept since it gives a degree of uncertainty to a match,...................... BUT

When a player (I'll insert me here), has an opponent in check by having control of the table in a match, and "Luck" comes into play(I'll insert my opponent here); well its not amusing at all. Itsa fluke if it happens once, but it happened 3 TIMES all 3 of them were drill shots that missed and went 3 rails to (you guessed it) an unintended pocket. helluva way to lose.
No, my opp is not a 3-cushion artist.

Ok. I'm done ! :embarrassed2: sorry for the rant,... (I feel better now) :)

This looks like an intelligent and thought out post. I'll get back to it later when i'm awake. :cool:
 
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I think your game takes away all of the strategy which is what makes any game interesting. Ball-pocketing and position play are only the physical aspects of the game, the mental aspects are important too. Sure you can see who can shoot the best but how is that any different from a homerun derby in baseball or long drive contest in golf?

If you really wanted an offensive game that removes some/most of the luck, how about rack-your-own Pool 300, Bowliards, Equal Offense, or Fargo?
 
Luck adds spice and fun to almost any game... in the right dose. A game with zero luck would be kind of dull, and I expect the same two or three guys would keep winning tournaments in a zero luck game year after year.

10b (call shot with passback option) is an example of when luck is adjusted to the correct amount.
 
Thanks for the feedback everyone.

Personally I think there is nothing wrong with the skill to luck ratio in pool today. But some people clearly think there is, since there have been a bunch of rule variations lately designed to reduce luck, such as bigger tables, tighter pockets, call shot/call safe 10-ball, etc.

This thread started as a thought experiment. Why go halfway by reducing luck if you can eliminate luck? So the challenge became to create a game that eliminates luck but is still interesting to watch.

There are plenty of ways to create a boring game with no luck. That's easy. You could have everyone run the PAT drills and the highest score wins. That would be incredibly boring but would be a pure test of skill. Or you could shoot spot shots over and over - again, endlessly boring but also no luck. You could have a break speed contest - fastest break wins, period. That would be akin to a golf long drive contest, and would probably be dull.

Runout 8 Ball is designed to eliminate luck while preserving strategy and creativity, and being interesting to watch. I'd like to see it come to life, if only to test the concept.
 
Thanks for the feedback everyone.

Personally I think there is nothing wrong with the skill to luck ratio in pool today. But some people clearly think there is, since there have been a bunch of rule variations lately designed to reduce luck, such as bigger tables, tighter pockets, call shot/call safe 10-ball, etc.

This thread started as a thought experiment. Why go halfway by reducing luck if you can eliminate luck? So the challenge became to create a game that eliminates luck but is still interesting to watch.

There are plenty of ways to create a boring game with no luck. That's easy. You could have everyone run the PAT drills and the highest score wins. That would be incredibly boring but would be a pure test of skill. Or you could shoot spot shots over and over - again, endlessly boring but also no luck. You could have a break speed contest - fastest break wins, period. That would be akin to a golf long drive contest, and would probably be dull.

Runout 8 Ball is designed to eliminate luck while preserving strategy and creativity, and being interesting to watch. I'd like to see it come to life, if only to test the concept.

I would make the argument that you can never eliminate luck simply because "luck" is a thing that a person attributes to a series of events. Usually those events are dependent on at least one non-deterministic (i.e., random) occurrence. However, randomness is not required for an event to be considered the result of "luck."

In other words, there's always going to be someone complaining that he lost because the other guy got lucky.
 
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