Break Stats -- Turning Stone XXI 9-Ball, Sept. 2013

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AtLarge

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Here are the aggregate break statistics from the 21 9-Ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats/AzB from the Turning Stone Classic XXI in Verona, New York.

The conditions for this event included: Diamond 9-foot Pro-Am table with pro-cut pockets, Simonis 860 cloth, Diamond wooden rack, winner breaks, loser racks, fouls on all balls, no jump cues allowed, and all slop counts.

The 21 matches (308 games) were as follows:

Thurs., Sept. 19 -- T. Hohmann def. S. Mack 9-5, G. Bedard d. S. Wilke 9-4, R. Casanzio d. M. Dechaine 9-6,​
T. D'Alfonso d. H. Lombardo 9-6.​
​
Fri., Sept. 20 -- T. Hohmann d. H. See 9-2, M. Eisland d. E. Culhane 9-4, E. Laurance d. D. Steele 9-8,​
J. Crowe d. B. Andoni 9-1, B. Shuff d. K. Corr 9-3, O. Dominguez d. J. Ulrich 9-8.​
​
Sat., Sept. 21 -- O. Dominguez d. R, Morris 9-5, E. Strickland d. J. Klatt 9-8, D. Hatch d. S. Wilke 9-8,​
M. Dechaine d. M. Daigle 9-5, J. Sossei d. T. Hohmann 9-8, O. Dominguez d. T. Hohmann 9-6.​
​
Sun., Sept. 22 -- D. Hatch d. O. Dominguez 9-8, E. Strickland d. J Dupuis 9-5, J Sossei d. D. Normandin 9-5,​
E. Strickland d. D. Normandin 9-3, and E. Strickland d. J. Sossei 13-7 (finals).​
​
Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 56% of the time (173 of 308), won 56% of the games (174 of 308), and broke and ran 19% of the games (59 of 308).

Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 308 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 113 (37% of the 308 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 60 (19%)​
​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 7 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 16 (5%)​
​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 54 (18%)​
Breaker lost the game: 58 (19%)​
​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% (174) of all 308 games,​
He won 65% (113 of 173) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 30% (7 of 23) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 48% (54 of 112) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 45% (61 of 135) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

9-balls on the break:
The 59 break-and-run games included 6 9-balls on the break (1.9% of the 308 breaks).
 
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Interesting, didn't notice they play all ball fouls, no jump cues.
Probably no huge impact on the stats.

One choice that DID have a big impact: wooden rack instead of magic rack (or accurack).

Not a sales pitch or anything, I just think it's a little goofy that professional players who know
how to hit the ball properly are coming up dry a whopping 36% of the time.
I'm sure with careful rack inspection and practice you can improve that, but even 25% is too much.

I can understand why people don't like MBR turning it to 99% success, and making the
wing ball a foregone conclusion. But with so little money in pool it sucks to think
that a lot of these guys are counting on hit-hard-and-hope to decide their paycheck.
 
CreeDo said:
... I just think it's a little goofy that professional players who know how to hit the ball properly are coming up dry a whopping 36% of the time. ...
Click to expand...

It was actually a little higher than that, because the "fouled" category in my post includes fouls on both wet and dry breaks. Here's a different breakdown:

Wet without fouling = 173 of 308 breaks (56%)
Wet but fouled = 12 (4%)

Dry without fouling = 112 (36%)
Dry and fouled = 11 (4%)

So no object ball was pocketed on 40% of the breaks.
 
AtLarge said:
It was actually a little higher than that, because the "fouled" category in my post includes fouls on both wet and dry breaks. Here's a different breakdown:

Wet without fouling = 173 of 308 breaks (56%)
Wet but fouled = 12 (4%)

Dry without fouling = 112 (36%)
Dry and fouled = 11 (4%)

So no object ball was pocketed on 40% of the breaks.
Click to expand...

That'd be frustrating, but I bet Earl loved it, it's like 9 ball from 2 decades ago.
Break 'em hard, wait for a chance, run out every time you get a look.
 
Thanx, AtLarge.

Years ago, the wild 8 was considered equal to the break.....high level players, of course.

I wonder if it still is?
 
Miscellany from the Turning Stone XXI data:

• Although the 9-ball was made on the break only 6 times in 308 games, 2 of them were by Guy Bedard in his win over Shaun Wilke.

• The 59 B&R games (including 9's on the break) consisted of one 3-pack (Hohmann), eight 2-packs (twice for Hohmann and once each for D'Alfonso, Daigle, Dechaine, Hatch, Dominguez, and Strickland), and 40 singles.

• Strickland appeared on stream for four matches. In the first three, he broke and ran just 4 times in total. In the finals match, he broke and ran 5 times.

• Hohmann appeared on stream for four matches. He broke and ran 31% of his 32 breaks.

• The most balls made on the break was four, twice -- once by Dechaine and once by Hatch. Both times the breaker won the game.

• Sossei was down 3-5 to Normandin in the hot-seat match. Sossei then won the last 6 games in a row, one of them on a 3/9 carom and three of them on 2/9 combos.

• In the 20 races to 9 that were streamed, the loser won an average of 5.4 games.

• In the 20 races to 9 that were streamed, the average elapsed time for the matches was 86 minutes, or 6.0 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made, so it includes time for racking, bathroom/smoking breaks, calls to the referee, and "discussions."

• The longest match in elapsed time was Sossei def. Hohmann -- 122 minutes. This match tied with the D'Alfonso-def.-Lombardo match for highest minutes per game in a match -- 7.2.

• The shortest match in elapsed time and lowest in minutes per game was Strickland def. Normandin -- 38 minutes, or 3.2 minutes per game for the 12 games.
 
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What were the numbers for pushes at the Turning Stone XXI event? Conventional wisdom is that the player who pushes out is at a disadvantage, because it is the other player who then has the choice on whether to shoot.

Out of the 308 games in 21 streamed matches, 37 games (12%) involved a push out, and the results were as follows:
  • Breaker pushed and won the game -- 13
  • Breaker pushed and lost the game -- 9
  • Non-breaker pushed and won the game -- 10
  • Non-breaker pushed and lost the game -- 5
So, overall, the person who pushed won 23 of the 37 games (62%) and lost 14 (38%). Both breakers and non-breakers, when pushing, won more games than they lost.

The pusher winning 62% of the time contradicts conventional wisdom. But, as before, the sample size is quite small.

Of the 37 pushes, 13 were returned (passed back to the pusher to shoot), and the pusher won 8 of those 13 games.

For comparison, here are essentially the same posts regarding the Turning Stone XX event from Jan., 2013; the Turning Stone XIX event from Aug., 2012; and the Turning Stone XVIII event from Dec., 2011:
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=3967601&postcount=20
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=3742685&postcount=9
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=3363888&postcount=5
 
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Aggregating the numbers for pushes in the 4 most recent Turning Stone events (XXI, XX, XIX, and XVIII), we have the following.

Out of 930 games in 64 streamed matches, 115 games (12.4%) involved a push out, and the results were as follows:
  • Breaker pushed and won the game -- 39
  • Breaker pushed and lost the game -- 31
  • Non-breaker pushed and won the game -- 30
  • Non-breaker pushed and lost the game -- 15
So, overall, the person who pushed won 69 of the 115 games (60%) and lost 46 (40%). Both breakers and non-breakers who pushed won the majority of their pushes. This contradicts conventional wisdom.

Of the 115 pushes, 45 were returned (passed back to the pusher to shoot), and the pusher won 29 of those 45 games (64%).
 
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