Break Stats -- 2013 U.S. Open 9-Ball, Oct. 2013

AtLarge · Oct 19, 2013

Here are the aggregate break statistics from 34 of the 36 9-Ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats from the 2013 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship in Chesapeake, VA. [The two matches I missed were K. Uchigaki d. S. Moore and R. Hundal d. K Bein, both on Day 2.]

The conditions for this event included: Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets, Simonis 860 cloth, Diamond wooden rack, Aramith Tournament balls, measles cue ball, winner breaks, breaker racks for himself with the 2-ball at the back of the rack, break from the box (a bit narrower than 2 diamonds wide), a 9-ball made on the break spots up if it went in either of the two foot-rail pockets, no soft breaking (at least 3 balls must pass mid-table or be pocketed), cue-ball fouls only, jump cues are allowed, and all slop counts (except as stated for 9-balls on the break). A 40-sec. shot clock (with one extension per rack) was used on most of the full-production matches beginning with the third match on Wednesday.

The 34 matches (585 games) were as follows:

Sun., Oct. 13 -- S. Frost def. M. McNaughton 11-7, D. Mastermaker d. O. Santiago-Roman 11-3, and E. Moore d. D. Bollman 11-7.

Mon., Oct. 14 -- S. Daulton d. K. West 11-7, B. Tatum d. A. Kielar 11-6, B. Parks d. T. McKinney 11-6, and J. Engel d. R. Vanalla 11-8. [Note: the data below exclude results for the first game of the Parks/McKinney match, when Pat Fleming was trying to demonstrate his new TPA app,]

Tues., Oct 15 -- C. Deuel d. M. Yednak 11-2, W. Kiamco d. M. Immonen 11-10, B. Shuff d. F. Hernandez 11-4, T. Hohmann d. R. Carmona 11-2, R. Lim d. M. Ricciardella 11-2, and L. Kjoersvik d. D. Hughes 11-6.

Wed., Oct 16 -- J. Roberts d. H. Alhouri 11-9, M. Morra d. B. Stottlemyer 11-5, C. Williams d. L. Nevel 11-8, S Van Boening d. O. Al Shaheen 11-5, W. Can d. Y. Akagariyama 11-9, and O. Ortmann d. D. Peach 11-9.

Thurs., Oct 17 -- R. Souquet. d. C. Pike 11-7, C. Deuel d. R. Morris 11-8, J. Archer d. J. Klatt 11-5, C. Melling d. K. Boyes 11-5, N. Feijen d. D. Appleton 11-2, and H. Hijikata d. E. Strickland 11-7.

Fri., Oct 18 -- J. Shaw d. J. Archer 11-8, L. Vann Corteza d. H. Hijikata 11-1, K. Boyes d. C. Deuel 11-2, N. Feijen d. N. Ekonomopoulos 11-9, S. Van Boening d. C. Melling 11-6, and N. Feijen d. C. Melling 11-9.

Sat., Oct 19 -- S. Van Boening d. J. Shaw 11-5, L. Vann Corteza d. J. Shaw 12-10, and S. Van Boening d. L. Vann Corteza 13-10.

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 63% of the time (370 of 585), won 56% of the games (326 of 585), and broke and ran 21% of the games (124 of 585).

Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 585 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:

Breaker won the game: 241 (41% of the 585 games)

Breaker lost the game: 129 (22%)

Breaker fouled on the break:

Breaker won the game: 9 (2%)

Breaker lost the game: 24 (4%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):

Breaker won the game: 76 (13%)

Breaker lost the game: 106 (18%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% (326) of all 585 games,

He won 65% (241 of 370) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.

He won 27% (9 of 33) of the games in which he fouled on the break.

He won 42% (76 of 182) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.

He won 40% (85 of 215) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

9-balls on the break:
The 124 break-and-run games included just 3 9-balls on the break (0.5% of the 585 breaks). In addition, 18 9-balls (3.1% of the breaks) were made that went in one of the two bottom pockets and had to be spotted rather than counting as wins.

AtLarge · Oct 19, 2013

Here's a day-by-day listing of the key results that were summarized in post #1. Notice the improvement in the numbers as the week progressed.

Breaker made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:

Day 1 -- 28 of 50 (56%)

Day 2 -- 36 of 70 (51%)

Day 3 -- 54 of 92 (59%)

Day 4 -- 67 of 111 (60%)

Day 5 -- 66 of 100 (66%)

Day 6 -- 71 of 101 (70%)

Day 7 -- 48 of 61 (79%)

7-Day Total -- 370 of 585 (63%)

Breaker won the game:

Day 1 -- 23 of 50 (46%)

Day 2 -- 36 of 70 (51%)

Day 3 -- 52 of 92 (57%)

Day 4 -- 62 of 111 (56%)

Day 5 -- 55 of 100 (55%)

Day 6 -- 60 of 101 (59%)

Day 7 -- 38 of 61 (62%)

7-Day Total -- 326 of 585 (56%)

Break-and-run games:

Day 1 -- 2 of 50 (4%)

Day 2 -- 5 of 70 (7%)

Day 3 -- 17 of 92 (18%)

Day 4 -- 25 of 111 (23%)

Day 5 -- 23 of 100 (23%)

Day 6 -- 31 of 101 (31%)

Day 7 -- 21 of 61 (34%)

7-Day Total -- 124 of 585 (21%)

Kickin' Chicken · Oct 19, 2013

I knew this was coming...

And I wanted to be 1st to say thank you, AtLarge, for being our terrific resident statistician. :thumbup:

:thumbup:

Now let me read all about it. :smile:

best,
brian kc

pt109 · Oct 20, 2013

The best results for the breaker were on the last day....

...hmm...adrenalin flowing....and thinning the herd...

Thanx, AtLarge

dom_poppa · Oct 20, 2013

So it seems that the difference between a shortstop and a professional player is in the breaks.

They can't beat you if you are running out too.

ceebee · Oct 20, 2013

Thanks very much for this great information.... Everybody needs to practice the Break Shot, but very few will take the time.

AtLarge · Oct 20, 2013

The 34 matches covered in post #1 involved 52 different players. Shane appeared in 4 of the 34 matches. Here's how he did compared to the other 51 players combined.

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:

Shane -- 82% (37 of 45)

Other 51 players -- 62% (333 of 540)

Total -- 63% (370 of 585)

Won the game when breaking:

Shane -- 71% (32 of 45)

Other 51 players -- 54% (294 of 540)

Total -- 56% (326 of 585)

Break-and-run games:

Shane -- 36% (16 of 45)

Other 51 players -- 20% (108 of 540)

Total -- 21% (124 of 585)

So, Shane's break results were quite a bit better than the combined results for the other players in the streamed matches.

However, ... see next post.

AtLarge · Oct 20, 2013

Shane played in 4 streamed matches (out of his total of 8 matches). The players who finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, and one of the players who finished 5th, each played in 3 streamed matches. Here is how the break results compared for those 5 players.

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:

Van Boening -- 82% (37 of 45)

Vann Corteza -- 72% (23 of 32)

Shaw -- 81% (21 of 26)

Feijen -- 66% (21 of 32)

Melling -- 76% (19 of 25)

Total excl. Van Boening -- 73% (84 of 115)

Won the game when breaking:

Van Boening -- 71% (32 of 45)

Vann Corteza -- 69% (22 of 32)

Shaw -- 62% (16 of 26)

Feijen -- 66% (21 of 32)

Melling -- 52% (13 of 25)

Total excl. Van Boening -- 63% (72 of 115)

Break-and-run games:

Van Boening -- 36% (16 of 45)

Vann Corteza -- 38% (12 of 32)

Shaw -- 42% (11 of 26)

Feijen -- 31% (10 of 32)

Melling -- 28% (7 of 25)

Total excl. Van Boening -- 35% (40 of 115)

So, whereas Shane's break results were a lot better than those for the rest of the streamed players combined (see my last post in this thread), the other top finishers' results were much closer to Shane's (not an unexpected result).

pt109 · Oct 20, 2013

AtLarge said:
The 34 matches covered in post #1 involved 52 different players. Shane appeared in 4 of the 34 matches. Here's how he did compared to the other 51 players combined.

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:

Shane -- 82% (37 of 45)

Other 51 players -- 62% (333 of 540)

Total -- 63% (370 of 585)

Won the game when breaking:

Shane -- 71% (32 of 45)

Other 51 players -- 54% (294 of 540)

Total -- 56% (326 of 585)

Break-and-run games:

Shane -- 36% (16 of 45)

Other 51 players -- 20% (108 of 540)

Total -- 21% (124 of 585)

So, Shane's break results were quite a bit better than the combined results for the other players in the streamed matches.

However, ... see next post.

These figures make Shane look like a fox in a chicken coop.
Very impressive

victhestick · Oct 20, 2013

Presuming that the player who won each match was the better player in that match and that the winner of each match broke approximately 65% of the time , I think that except for the best players mentioned it was a significant disadvantage to be breaking.

JAM · Oct 20, 2013

pt109 said:
These figures make Shane look like a fox in a chicken coop.
Very impressive

Definitely, he's got that break working for him.

What percentage would you think, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, would you say the break is in 9-ball? Just curious.

By these stats, it would appear that the break is definitely a statistical significant factor in winning, but what percent, I wonder.

plfrg · Oct 20, 2013

Great job with the stats again - Thanks AtLarge!

I seem to be one of the few that take an opposite view of the results - that the break is important but that most of us should NOT be going out and trying to become a world class breaker. For the vast majority of people out there it's almost a waste of time.

- 56% of the games were won when they were breaking.
- The best players in the world are only breaking and running 21% of the time. The best player in the world only broke and ran 36% of the time.

I'm not saying these averages aren't impressive, I think they played great.

I think the value in these statistics is that they clearly dispel common myths (like 9-ball is simply a runout derby from the person that breaks - 20% is hardly overwhelming). And the myth that you should practice your break to get as good as Shane. That's only true after you're able to consistently run out the table under pressure, which well over 90% of the people out there cannot do.

realkingcobra · Oct 20, 2013

AtLarge said:
Shane played in 4 streamed matches (out of his total of 8 matches). The players who finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, and one of the players who finished 5th, each played in 3 streamed matches. Here is how the break results compared for those 5 players.

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:

Van Boening -- 82% (37 of 45)

Vann Corteza -- 72% (23 of 32)

Shaw -- 81% (21 of 26)

Feijen -- 66% (21 of 32)

Melling -- 76% (19 of 25)

Total excl. Van Boening -- 73% (84 of 115)

Won the game when breaking:

Van Boening -- 71% (32 of 45)

Vann Corteza -- 69% (22 of 32)

Shaw -- 62% (16 of 26)

Feijen -- 66% (21 of 32)

Melling -- 52% (13 of 25)

Total excl. Van Boening -- 63% (72 of 115)

Break-and-run games:

Van Boening -- 36% (16 of 45)

Vann Corteza -- 38% (12 of 32)

Shaw -- 42% (11 of 26)

Feijen -- 31% (10 of 32)

Melling -- 28% (7 of 25)

Total excl. Van Boening -- 35% (40 of 115)

So, whereas Shane's break results were a lot better than those for the rest of the streamed players combined (see my last post in this thread), the other top finishers' results were much closer to Shane's (not an unexpected result).

Now, can you compare Shane's stats to last years when he won? Reguardless of who he was playing, the stats for Shane only speaks for Shane, last year and this year. Did he improve over last years win, or play the same?

Glen

gxman · Oct 20, 2013

BNR rates on day 1 & 2 is only 3% and 7%?

2-50 on day 1??

Seems very very low.

AtLarge · Oct 20, 2013

dom_poppa said:
So it seems that the difference between a shortstop and a professional player is in the breaks.

They can't beat you if you are running out too.

I'd say it is more than breaking.

AtLarge · Oct 20, 2013

victhestick said:
Presuming that the player who won each match was the better player in that match and that the winner of each match broke approximately 65% of the time , I think that except for the best players mentioned it was a significant disadvantage to be breaking.

If you exclude the 5 players whose results were shown in post #8, the other 47 players who played in the 34 streamed matches I watched still won 52% of the games in which they were the breaker. I would not really agree with the word "significant" in your last sentence quoted above.

The percentage of games won by the breaker in pro events is generally in the range of 45% - 60%. It can get much higher than that for the top players near the end of an event when they are dialed in on the break and running out a lot. It can also be influenced by matches involving a strong player and a weak player. A very lopsided match in a winner-breaks format obviously leads to a very high "breaker-won-game" percentage.

Despite the fact that the stats sometimes seem to indicate that it is no great advantage to be breaking, I doubt that many top players would want to give the break to an opponent coming down the stretch in a big event.

AtLarge · Oct 20, 2013

JAM said:
Definitely, he's got that break working for him.

What percentage would you think, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, would you say the break is in 9-ball? Just curious.

By these stats, it would appear that the break is definitely a statistical significant factor in winning, but what percent, I wonder.

See my response in the prior post.

AtLarge · Oct 20, 2013

realkingcobra said:
Now, can you compare Shane's stats to last years when he won? Reguardless of who he was playing, the stats for Shane only speaks for Shane, last year and this year. Did he improve over last years win, or play the same?

Glen

Compared with last year, 2013 was a down year for Shane.

Coincidentally, he appeared on 4 streamed matches and broke 45 times both years. Here's the comparison:

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:

2013 -- 82% (37 of 45)

2012 -- 91% (41 of 45)

Won the game when breaking:

2013 -- 71% (32 of 45)

2012 -- 78% (35 of 45)

Break-and-run games:

2013 -- 36% (16 of 45)

2012 -- 49% (22 of 45)

AtLarge · Oct 20, 2013

gxman said:
BNR rates on day 1 & 2 is only 3% and 7%?

2-50 on day 1??

Seems very very low.

Yes, it was a slow start on B&R's -- 2 of 50 breaks, for 4%, on Sunday and 5 of 70 breaks, for 7%, on Monday.

(Note that I missed two of the matches on Monday, but, from what I read, they were not stellar matches either.)

realkingcobra · Oct 20, 2013

AtLarge said:
Compared with last year, 2013 was a down year for Shane.:smile:

Coincidentally, he appeared on 4 streamed matches and broke 45 times both years. Here's the comparison:

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:

2013 -- 82% (37 of 45)

2012 -- 91% (41 of 45)

Won the game when breaking:

2013 -- 71% (32 of 45)

2012 -- 78% (35 of 45)

Break-and-run games:

2013 -- 36% (16 of 45)

2012 -- 49% (22 of 45)

This is the begining of the end for Shane, I knew with him getting a year older, it would start to catch up to him, and it clearly shows:rotflmao1::rotflmao1:

Break Stats -- 2013 U.S. Open 9-Ball, Oct. 2013

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