Break Stats -- TAR 37 Day 2, Van Boening vs. Deuel 8-Ball, Nov. 2, 2013

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Here are the results from Day 2 (8-Ball) of TAR 37 -- Shane Van Boening vs. Corey Deuel. Shane won 30-24.

The conditions for this call-shot 8-ball match included the following: 9-foot Diamond Smart Table with approximately 4 1/2" corner pockets, Simonis 860 cloth that is not new, Delta 13 rack, winner breaks, breaker racks for himself, table open after the break, a legal break requires that at least 4 balls hit a rail or at least one ball is pocketed (no illegal breaks occurred), breaker has choice of spotting the 8-ball or re-breaking if he makes the 8-ball on the break (did not happen), ball in hand anywhere after a foul on the break, and a 40-second shot clock with 1 extension allowed per rack (80 seconds before suits are established, I think).

Shane broke 30 times, with the following results:
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 16 (53%)​
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 2 (7%)​
Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 2 (7%)​
Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 10 (33%)​

Corey broke 24 times, with the following results:
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 9 (38%)​
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 6 (25%)​
Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 3 (13%)​
Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 6 (25%)​

For the two players combined, a ball was made on the break (without fouling) 33 of the 54 games (61%), the breaker won 30 of the 54 games (56%), and the breaker won 25 of the 33 games in which he made a ball on the break (76%).

Break-and-run games:
Shane -- 16 of 30 (53%)​
Corey -- 6 of 24 (25%)​
Total -- 22 of 54 (41%)​
​
Shane's 16 B&R games consisted of one 5-pack, one 4-pack, one 3-pack, and four singles.​
Corey's 6 B&R games consisted of one 2-pack and four singles.​
 
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AtLarge - thanks for this valuable information, you're appreciated by everyone

AtLarge said:
Here are the results from Day 2 (8-Ball) of TAR 37 -- Shane Van Boening vs. Corey Deuel. Shane won 30-24.

The conditions for this call-shot 8-ball match included the following: 9-foot Diamond Smart Table with approximately 4 1/2" corner pockets, Simonis 860 cloth that is not new, Delta 13 rack, winner breaks, breaker racks for himself, table open after the break, a legal break requires that at least 4 balls hit a rail or at least one ball is pocketed (no illegal breaks occurred), breaker has choice of spotting the 8-ball or re-breaking if he makes the 8-ball on the break (did not happen), ball in hand anywhere after a foul on the break, and a 40-second shot clock with 1 extension allowed per rack (80 seconds before suits are established, I think).

Shane broke 30 times, with the following results:
  • Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 16 (53%)
  • Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 2 (7%)
  • Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 2 (7%)
  • Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 10 (33%)

Corey broke 24 times, with the following results:
  • Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 9 (38%)
  • Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 6 (25%)
  • Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 3 (13%)
  • Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 6 (25%)

For the two players combined, a ball was made on the break (without fouling) 33 of the 54 games (61%), the breaker won 30 of the 54 games (56%), and the breaker won 25 of the 33 games in which he made a ball on the break (76%).

Break-and-run games:
  • Shane -- 16 of 30 (53%)
  • Corey -- 6 of 24 (25%)
  • Total -- 22 of 54 (41%)

Shane's 16 B&R games consisted of one 5-pack, one 4-pack, one 3-pack, and four singles. Corey's 6 B&R games consisted of one 2-pack and four singles.
Click to expand...

These are great statistics, AtLarge - thanks for this valuable information, you're appreciated by everyone in this " Texas camp". :D 'The Facts are the Teacher'
 
A few more numbers:

Number of missed shots (excluding on breaks):
Shane -- 14​
Corey -- 11​
Total -- 25​

Number of fouls (excluding on breaks):
Shane -- 1​
Corey -- 4​
Total -- 5​

Number of safeties:
Shane -- 2​
Corey -- 5​
Total -- 7​
 
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As noted in post #1, the break-and-run games numbered 16 of 30 (53%) for Shane and 6 of 24 (25%) for Corey, for a combined 22 of 54 (41%). But let's look at it a couple of other ways.

Run-outs after successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Shane -- 16 of 18 (89%)​
Corey -- 6 of 15 (40%)​
Total -- 22 of 33 (67%)​

Run-outs in first inning at table:
Shane after his own successful break -- 16 of 18​
Shane after Corey's failed break -- 5 of 9​
Shane's total -- 21 of 27 (78%)​

Corey after his own successful break -- 6 of 15​
Corey after Shane's failed break -- 9 of 12​
Corey's total -- 15 of 27 (56%)​
​
Total for Shane and Corey -- 36 of 54 (67%)​

Shane was using a power break from several inches to his right of the head spot. So the balls were well distributed around the table after his break, often making post-break run-outs easy (for them!).

Corey broke from a few inches off the long rail to his left. His first four breaks were left-handed into the ball behind the head ball; the rest of his breaks were right-handed soft breaks trying to make the 1-ball in the side pocket to his right. So the balls were not well distributed around the table after his breaks, making post-break run-outs difficult.
 
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From post #4, we see that the player who had the first shot after the break ran out from that point 67% of the time, with Shane at 78% and Corey at 56%.

But we can turn those results around just a bit to reveal the following:

Run-outs from first shot after Shane's break:
By Shane -- 16 of 18 (89%)​
By Corey -- 9 of 12 (75%)​
Total -- 25 of 30 (83%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Corey's break:
By Corey -- 6 of 15 (40%)​
By Shane -- 5 of 9 (56%)​
Total -- 11 of 24 (46%)​

Clearly, Shane's power break opened up the table for a high run-out opportunity by either player, whereas Corey's soft break created a much lower run-out opportunity.
 
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As always thanks for these stats, they're pretty revealing. It's cool you've started
to incorporate a few bonus stats that paint more of the picture.

I wonder how it'd have gone if Corey had gone with the traditional strategy of just
trying to break hard? Their percentage of wet breaks was not that different
(favoring corey a hair) but when they broke dry, shane got out about 1/3rd less often.
So shane might have won by even a larger margin if he'd been able to get out 75%
of the time off Corey's failed breaks.

But if Corey broke harder, I'm sure his runout percentage after a wet break
would go up. The question is, would he still make a ball as reliably?

Maybe for corey the best tactic might have been to play the 1 in the side,
but break hard (at the risk of the cue ball going wild). Shane plays those 2nd row balls
and seems to have very limited success. A lot of his wet breaks were the "Consolation prize"
where the last ball rolling went in.
 
CreeDo said:
As always thanks for these stats, they're pretty revealing. It's cool you've started to incorporate a few bonus stats that paint more of the picture.

I wonder how it'd have gone if Corey had gone with the traditional strategy of just
trying to break hard? Their percentage of wet breaks was not that different
(favoring corey a hair) but when they broke dry, shane got out about 1/3rd less often.
So shane might have won by even a larger margin if he'd been able to get out 75%
of the time off Corey's failed breaks.

But if Corey broke harder, I'm sure his runout percentage after a wet break
would go up. The question is, would he still make a ball as reliably?

Maybe for corey the best tactic might have been to play the 1 in the side,
but break hard (at the risk of the cue ball going wild). Shane plays those 2nd row balls
and seems to have very limited success. A lot of his wet breaks were the "Consolation prize" where the last ball rolling went in.
Click to expand...

Thanks, CreeDo. I wonder how much of Corey's soft breaking was really a strategic decision as opposed to trying to protect his arm/elbow from further pain or damage and save it for tonight's 9-Ball. I guess the arm must hurt; why else start out with an opposite-handed soft break?
 
AtLarge said:
Thanks, CreeDo. I wonder how much of Corey's soft breaking was really a strategic decision as opposed to trying to protect his arm/elbow from further pain or damage and save it for tonight's 9-Ball. I guess the arm must hurt; why else start out with an opposite-handed soft break?
Click to expand...

Hrm, I remember that comment during the 8-ball opening interview,
did he do a specific injury to it?
The left-handed thing was certainly puzzling.

I'd assumed he was gonna soft-break tonight, and maybe "save my arm"
was him being funny.
 
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