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Break Stats -- WPA World 9-Ball Championship, September 2015
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Break Stats -- WPA World 9-Ball Championship, September 2015 - 09-18-2015, 01:46 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2015 WPA World 9-Ball Championship played this week in Doha, Qatar, with free live streaming by Kozoom.

The conditions for this event included: Wiraka 9-foot tables, Simonis 860 Tournament Blue cloth, Magic Rack, Super Aramith Pro TV balls with the measles cue ball, alternate breaks, breaker racks with the 1-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball at the back of the rack, break from anywhere behind the line, jump cues allowed, WPA rules (all slop counts, foul on all balls) except it is an illegal break unless at least 3 balls are pocketed or pass the head string.

The 23 matches (340 games tracked) that I watched were as follows. This sample is 10% of the total number of matches and games played in the event.

Sat., Sept. 12
  • Y. Akagariyama defeated F. Sanchez-Ruiz 9-8
  • R. Souquet d. J-L Chang 9-8
  • R. Chinakhov d. L. Vann Corteza 9-6
  • S. Van Boening d. O. Salem 9-6

Sun., Sept. 13
  • D. Orcollo d. F. Diaz-Pizarro 9-4
  • A. Yapp d. D. Appleton 9-5
  • Y-H Cheng d. M. Chamat 9-6
  • P. Makkonen d. S. Gulati 9-8

Mon., Sept. 14
  • Y. Akagariyama d. C-S Yang 9-6
  • S. Van Boening d. R. Jones 9-5
  • M. Gray d. A. Yapp 9-7

Tues, Sept. 15
  • J. Chua d. J-L Chang 9-6
  • R. Chinakhov d. N. Van Den Berg 9-4
  • F-P Chao d. K. Boyes 9-7

Wed., Sept. 16
  • C. Biado d. L. V. Corteza 11-5
  • Y. Akagariyama d. J. Chua 11-5 (stats from only 10 games because of streaming outages)
  • S. Van Boening d. T. Kaplan 11-3 (stats from only 11 games)
  • R. Chinakhov d. A. Gabica 11-5 (stats from only 14 games)

Thurs., Sept. 17
  • W. Can d. R. Chinakhov 11-7
  • S. Van Boening d. Y-L Chang 11-5
  • S. Van Boening d. D. Orcollo 11-1

Fri., Sept. 18
  • S. Van Boening d. P-C Ko 11-1
  • P-Y Ko d. S. Van Boening 13-11 -- Finals (stats from only 19 games)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not break illegally or foul) 88% of the time (300 of 340), won 62% of the games (210 of 340), and broke and ran 37% of the games (126 of 340).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 340 games.

Breaker broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 200 (59% of the 340 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 100 (29%)

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul, but broke illegally:
  • Breaker won the game: 5 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 9 (3%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 13 (4%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling, but includes the 2 breaks that were both dry and illegal):
  • Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 8 (2%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 62% (210) of all 340 games,
  • He won 67% (200 of 300) of the games in which he broke legally, made at least one ball on the break, and did not foul.
  • He won 36% (5 of 14) of the games in which he made at least one ball and did not foul, but broke illegally.
  • He won 13% (2 of 15) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 27% (3 of 11) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 25% (10 of 40) of the games in which he either broke illegally, fouled on the break, or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 126 break-and-run games represented 37% of all 340 games, 60% of the 210 games won by the breaker, and 42% of the 300 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 126 break-and-run games (including 9's on the break) consisted of 3 alternate-break 4-packs, 4 alternate-break 3-packs, 20 alternate-break 2-packs, and 62 singles.

9-balls on the break: The 126 break-and-run games included just three 9-balls on the break (0.9% of the 340 breaks). With the Magic Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.

Observation: As was true in this event last year, the effects of using the Magic Rack were quite striking. On all 15 scratches on the break, at least one object ball was pocketed. So, in total, the breaker failed to make a ball on the break in only 11 of the 340 breaks (3.2%), an enormous difference from when the Magic Rack is not used. The high stay-at-table percentage after the break means many more opportunities to run out, so the B&R percentage is also high.
  
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09-18-2015, 01:46 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2015 WPA World 9-Ball Championship
[Unless stated otherwise, this relates only to the 23 streamed matches I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 4 times once each by Gulati, Gray, Chinakhov, and Van Boening. The breaker won all 4 of those games.

The average number of balls made on the break was 1.7 (this includes illegal, dry, and fouled breaks). When the breaker stayed at the table after the break, the average was 1.8.

55% (188 of 340) of the games ended in one inning 37% (126) won by the breaker (B&R) and 18% (62) won by the non-breaker. 9% (29 of 340) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

43% (145 of 340) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 42% (126 of 300)
By the non-breaker after illegal breaks -- 29% (4 of 14)
By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 80% (12 of 15)
By the non-breaker after dry breaks 27% (3 of 11)

For the 14 races to 9 that I watched (group stage), the loser won an average of 6.1 games. The comparable number for the tournament as a whole (160 races to 9, excluding one match with no score posted), was 5.1 games.

For the 8 races to 11 that I watched (single-elimination stage other than the finals), the loser won an average of only 4.0 games. The comparable number for the tournament as a whole (62 races to 11, excluding one match with no score posted) was 6.7 games. [I picked some lopsided matches!]

The average elapsed time for the 14 races to 9 (group stage) was 95 minutes, averaging 6.3 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

The average elapsed time for the 6 races to 11 that I was able to see in full (no streaming outages) was just 85 minutes, averaging 5.8 minutes per game.

For matches where I had the starting and ending times, the match highest in average minutes per game, at 8.9, was Souquet d. J-L Chang. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.4, was Orcollo d. Diaz-Pizarro.

Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 23 games, other fouls 1 for every 7 games, and missed shots 1 for every 2 games.

About 34% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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09-18-2015, 01:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post

Observation: As was true in this event last year, the effects of using the Magic Rack were quite striking. On all 15 scratches on the break, at least one object ball was pocketed. So, in total, the breaker failed to make a ball on the break in only 11 of the 340 breaks (3.2%), an enormous difference from when the Magic Rack is not used. The high stay-at-table percentage after the break means many more opportunities to run out, so the B&R percentage is also high.
Thanks for these wonderful stats, but I think the most important takeaway is how profoundly the use of the magic rack changes the equation.

This is why I've said over and over that when 9-ball is the game and the magic rack is in use, alternate break is absolutely mandatory.
  
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09-18-2015, 02:00 PM

I understand at the US Open, the accu rack template will be used and that it is winner breaks format. But Mr. Renfro has stated that the wing ball is not wired with the accu rack like it is the magic rack.

This is where I believe his template design will change the landscape in 9 ball--eliminating racking disputes while not wiring the wing ball guaranteeing the breaker stays at the table.

Thanks for the stats At Large, can't wait for a side by side comparison with the accu rack US Open stats.
  
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09-18-2015, 02:05 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by sjm View Post
Thanks for these wonderful stats, but I think the most important takeaway is how profoundly the use of the magic rack changes the equation.

This is why I've said over and over that when 9-ball is the game and the magic rack is in use, alternate break is absolutely mandatory.
Even though no player in the matches I watched broke and ran more than 4 times in a row on his own successive breaks, I certainly agree with you. I'd even extend it (alternate breaks) to any time when the races are short, regardless of equipment or rules.

[And it's possible that big B&R packages might be more common and longer when they are uninterrupted (winner breaks) than when they are interrupted (alternate breaks).]

Last edited by AtLarge; 09-18-2015 at 02:20 PM.
  
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09-18-2015, 02:10 PM

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Originally Posted by Cardigan Kid View Post
... can't wait for a side by side comparison with the accu rack US Open stats.
Agreed. We'll see if some of these clever guys can figure that one out (Renfro's rack).

Last edited by AtLarge; 09-18-2015 at 03:14 PM.
  
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09-18-2015, 02:32 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardigan Kid View Post
I understand at the US Open, the accu rack template will be used and that it is winner breaks format. But Mr. Renfro has stated that the wing ball is not wired with the accu rack like it is the magic rack.

This is where I believe his template design will change the landscape in 9 ball--eliminating racking disputes while not wiring the wing ball guaranteeing the breaker stays at the table.
I'm skeptical, but we'll see. One definite difference is that they're going to be required to break from the middle of the table at the us open.
  
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09-18-2015, 02:48 PM

Nice work as always at atlarge... Would it be possible to see svb's tourney stats combined? Curious to see if his bnr rate was up over 50%... It seemed like his play improved as the tourney progressed. Hitting his stride vs dennis, then lil ko. Tx again
  
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09-18-2015, 05:12 PM

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Originally Posted by Playin4Dinner View Post
Nice work as always at atlarge... Would it be possible to see svb's tourney stats combined? Curious to see if his bnr rate was up over 50%... It seemed like his play improved as the tourney progressed. Hitting his stride vs dennis, then lil ko. Tx again
For the entire tournament, Shane played 8 matches (123 games) and broke 61 times.

My stats in post #1 include 7 of those matches (all but Diaz-Pizarro -- 8 breaks). They also exclude 1 game in the Kaplan match and 2 games in the P-Y Ko match because of streaming problems. That means 50 of Shane's 61 breaks are in the stats, as follows:

Broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul:
  • • Won the game: 40 (80% of the 50 games)
  • • Lost the game: 6 (12%)

Made at least one ball and did not foul, but broke illegally:
  • • Won the game: 0
  • • Lost the game: 1 (2%)

Fouled on the break:
  • • Won the game: 0
  • • Lost the game: 0

Broke dry (without fouling):
  • • Won the game: 1 (2%)
  • • Lost the game: 2 (4%)

So Shane made at least one ball (and did not break illegally or foul) 92% of the time (46 of 50) and won 82% of the games (41 of 50) on his break.

His break-and-run games numbered 24 in those 50 breaks (48%), as follows:

4 of 7 vs. Salem
2 of 7 vs. Jones
3 of 6 vs. Kaplan
4 of 8 vs. Y-L Chang
3 of 6 vs. Orcollo
4 of 6 vs. P-C Ko
4 of 10 vs. P-Y Ko

Total -- 24 of 50 (48%)

After the stats were posted, I learned from a replay of the final match that the 2 breaks I missed for Shane in that match were 1 B&R and 1 foul scratch. So that makes 25 B&R's out of 52 breaks (still 48%), with 9 breaks unknown to me.

Since the overall stats have 126 B&R games on 340 breaks (37%), if we exclude Shane's 24 out of 50, we have 102 out of 290 (35%) for the other players combined.
  
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09-19-2015, 10:29 AM

Although the sample size for the matches I watched was one-third larger this year than last year (340 games vs. 255 games), the stats for the matches were remarkably similar:

Breaker broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 58% in 2014, 59% in 2015
  • Breaker lost the game: 30% in 2014, 29% in 2015

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul, but broke illegally:
  • Breaker won the game: 1% both years
  • Breaker lost the game: 2% in 2014, 3% in 2015

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 1% both years
  • Breaker lost the game: 5% in 2014, 4% in 2015

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 1% both years
  • Breaker lost the game: 2% both years

Break-and-run games:
  • As a percentage of all games: 35% in 2014, 37% in 2015
  • As a percentage of games won by the breaker: 57% in 2014, 60% in 2015
  • As a percentage of successful breaks (made a ball, legal, no foul): 39% in 2014, 42% in 2015
  
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09-19-2015, 01:31 PM

Thanx for the stats, AtLarge....I always read them.

I would still like the break box moved back....one diamond square...center of end rail.


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09-19-2015, 02:53 PM

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Thanx for the stats, AtLarge....I always read them.

I would still like the break box moved back....one diamond square...center of end rail.
That's interesting, pt. So by "one diamond square" you mean the box (on a 9-footer) would be just 6 1/4" to each side of the long string and 12 1/2" out from the head rail? In that case, just about everyone would put their bridge hand on the head rail.

The Mosconi Cup used a narrow box like that in 2013, but it was 2 diamonds long -- head rail to head string. [Maybe that is what you mean?]
  
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09-19-2015, 06:07 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
That's interesting, pt. So by "one diamond square" you mean the box (on a 9-footer) would be just 6 1/4" to each side of the long string and 12 1/2" out from the head rail? In that case, just about everyone would put their bridge hand on the head rail.

The Mosconi Cup used a narrow box like that in 2013, but it was 2 diamonds long -- head rail to head string. [Maybe that is what you mean?]
Yep, that's it, sir....like moving the pitcher's mound back, 'cause they got too good.


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