Go Back   AzBilliards.com > Main Category > Main Forum
Reload this Page Break Stats -- 2015 U.S. Open 9-Ball, Oct. 2015
Reply
Page 1 of 3 1 23
 
Share Thread Tools Rate Thread
Break Stats -- 2015 U.S. Open 9-Ball, Oct. 2015
Old
  (#1)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 8,613
vCash: 500
iTrader: 76 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
Break Stats -- 2015 U.S. Open 9-Ball, Oct. 2015 - 10-27-2015, 11:46 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 33 9-Ball matches streamed this week by Accu-Stats from the 2015 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship in Norfolk, VA.

The conditions for this event included: Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets, blue Simonis 860 cloth, Accu-Rack racking template, Aramith Tournament balls, measles cue ball, winner breaks, breaker racks for himself with the 9-ball on the foot string and the 2-ball at the back of the rack, break from the box (approx. 9" to each side of the long string), the break is illegal unless at least 3 balls pass the side pockets or are pocketed, foul on all balls, jump cues are allowed, and all slop counts (except I'm not sure whether a 9-ball pocketed in a foot-rail pocket counted, as that did not happen on stream). A 40-sec. shot clock (with one extension per rack) was used on the full-production matches.

The 33 matches (572 games tracked) were as follows. The figures in parentheses for some of the matches are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

Sun., Oct. 25 -- E. Strickland (.878) d. S. Frost (.830) 11-9, H-T Liu d. M. Chamat 11-6, S. Woodward (.825) d. I. Majid (.787) 11-10, N. Ekonomopoulos (.943) d. D. Mills (.879) 11-6, J. Morra (.897) d. F. Petroni (.718) 11-2, and R. Chinakhov d. R. Gallego 11-4.

Mon., Oct. 26 -- W. Kiamco (.876) d. A. Hopkins (.718) 11-6, K. Boyes d. S. Daulton 11-6, D. Orcollo d. P-N. Pham 11-1, A. Kazakis (.921) d. A. Pagulayan (.711) 11-3, S. Van Boening (.870) d. R. Gomez (.900) 11-9, and M. Davis d. I. Majid 11-9.

Tues., Oct 27 -- E. Dominguez d. So Shaw 11-9, R. Gallego (.920) d. C. Rocha (.829) 11-7, I. Putnik (.900) d. P-C Ko (.828) 11-8, A. Pagulayan d. A. Kang 11-5, O. Ortmann (.878) d. J-L Chang (.825) 11-6, and J. Bergman (.896) d. S. Van Boening (.857) 11-7.

Wed., Oct 28 -- J. Ignacio d. E. Strickland 11-5, K. Uchigaki (.891) d. P-Y Ko (.953) 11-10, J. Mazon d. B. Shuff 11-4, K-L Hsu (.917) d. M. Dechaine (.827) 11-7, J. Shaw (.866) d. C. Biado (.848) 11-7, and D. Orcollo (.816) d. K. Uchigaki (.787) 11-7 [Note: the data below exclude results for 5 games when the stream was down during the Ignacio/Strickland match.]

Thurs., Oct 29 -- D. Appleton d. N. Van den Berg 11-4, R. Morris (.891) d. F. Felicilda (.906) 11-10, K-L Hsu (.922) d. R. Souquet (.901) 11-8, H-T Liu d. J. Bergman 11-8, K. Boyes (.921) d. J. Shaw (.874) 11-9, and H-T Liu (.891) d. K-L Hsu (.817) 11-7. [Note: the data below exclude results for 6 games when the stream was down during the Liu/Bergman match.]

Fri., Oct 30 -- Y-H Cheng (.947) d. K. Boyes (.868) 11-4 (hot-seat match), K. Boyes (.915) d. H-T Liu (.895) 11-9 (semifinal), and Y-H Cheng (.908) d. K. Boyes (.878) 13-6 (finals).

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not break illegally or foul) 62% of the time (353 of 572), won 53% of the games (302 of 572), and broke and ran 23% of the games (131 of 572).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 572 games.

Breaker broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul:
  • • Breaker won the game: 224 (39% of the 572 games)
  • • Breaker lost the game: 129 (23%)

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul, but broke illegally:
  • • Breaker won the game: 4 (1%)
  • • Breaker lost the game: 7 (1%)

Breaker fouled on the break (includes 1 break that was both fouled and illegal):
  • • Breaker won the game: 13 (2%)
  • • Breaker lost the game: 28 (5%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling, but includes the 11 breaks that were both dry and illegal):
  • • Breaker won the game: 61 (11%)
  • • Breaker lost the game: 106 (19%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 53% of all games (302 of 572),
  • • He won 63% (224 of 353) of the games in which he broke legally, made at least one ball on the break, and did not foul.
  • • He won 36% (4 of 11) of the games in which he made at least one ball and did not foul, but broke illegally.
  • • He won 32% (13 of 41) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • • He won 37% (61 of 167) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • • He won 36% (78 of 219) of the games in which he either broke illegally, fouled on the break, or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 131 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 572 games, 43% of the 302 games won by the breaker, and 37% of the 353 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 131 break-and-run games consisted of 2 4-packs (Y-H Cheng and K-L Hsu), 4 3-packs, 16 2-packs, and 79 singles.

9-balls on the break: The 131 break-and-run games included just two 9-balls on the break (0.3% of the 572 breaks). With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.

Last edited by AtLarge; 10-30-2015 at 09:18 PM. Reason: Replacing the "reserved" post with the actual results.
  
Reply With Quote

Old
  (#2)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 8,613
vCash: 500
iTrader: 76 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-27-2015, 11:46 PM

Here's a day-by-day listing of some key break results after all 6 days (33 streamed matches) of the 2015 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship.

Breaker broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul:
Day 1 -- 66 of 103 (64%)
Day 2 -- 61 of 100 (61%)
Day 3 -- 62 of 108 (57%)
Day 4 -- 63 of 101 (62%)
Day 5 -- 67 of 106 (63%)
Day 6 -- 34 of 54 (63%)
6-Day Total -- 353 of 572 (62%)

Breaker won the game:
Day 1 -- 53 of 103 (51%)
Day 2 -- 55 of 100 (55%)
Day 3 -- 56 of 108 (52%)
Day 4 -- 48 of 101 (48%)
Day 5 -- 59 of 106 (56%)
Day 6 -- 31 of 54 (57%)
6-Day Total -- 302 of 572 (53%)

Break-and-run games:
Day 1 -- 24 of 103 (23%)
Day 2 -- 21 of 100 (21%)
Day 3 -- 20 of 108 (19%)
Day 4 -- 20 of 101 (20%)
Day 5 -- 27 of 106 (25%)
Day 6 -- 19 of 54 (35%)
6-Day Total 131 of 572 (23%)--

[Note -- The stats exclude some games when my stream was down -- 5 games in the Ignacio/Strickland match and 6 games in the Liu/Bergman match.]


The comparable figures last year for all 6 days were 53% (stay at table), 50% (breaker won game), and 20% (B&R games).

Last edited by AtLarge; 10-30-2015 at 08:11 PM.
  
Reply With Quote
Great Work, as usual!
Old
  (#3)
King T
AzB Silver Member
King T has a reputation beyond reputeKing T has a reputation beyond reputeKing T has a reputation beyond reputeKing T has a reputation beyond reputeKing T has a reputation beyond reputeKing T has a reputation beyond reputeKing T has a reputation beyond reputeKing T has a reputation beyond reputeKing T has a reputation beyond reputeKing T has a reputation beyond reputeKing T has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 1,562
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: May 2011
   
Great Work, as usual! - 10-28-2015, 01:54 AM

I keep waiting for the day that you post the stats and the breaker has won 75% on their break....,

with all the arguing over the break, the rack and how the game is so easy because all you have to do is break and you win..,

Your stats tell a different story, Thanks again.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#4)
Colin Colenso
<-- My Kids
Colin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond repute
 
Colin Colenso's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 7,377
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Blog Entries: 1
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Australia
   
10-28-2015, 04:55 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by King T View Post
I keep waiting for the day that you post the stats and the breaker has won 75% on their break....,

with all the arguing over the break, the rack and how the game is so easy because all you have to do is break and you win..,

Your stats tell a different story, Thanks again.
This data doesn't tell us much about the importance of the break result.

Around 60% of wet legal breaks tells one part... a slight advantage, but probably only 60% of those wet legal breaks result in a nice starting shot on the lowest ball.

On some tables the wet legal break percent is closer to 80% and when that is occurring, the position to the lowest ball is also usually higher too.

Colin


Quote:
"The first essential step in the direction of learning any subject is to find principles of numerical reckoning and practicable methods for measuring some quality connected with it. I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind." - Lord Kelvin
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#5)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 8,613
vCash: 500
iTrader: 76 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-28-2015, 11:49 PM

Post #2 has been updated with results from Day 4.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#6)
pt109
WO double hemlock

pt109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond repute
 
pt109's Avatar
 
Status: Online
Posts: 20,646
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: out of country but incontinent
   
10-29-2015, 12:07 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Post #2 has been updated with results from Day 4.
I'm curious about the stats on fouls on breaks....the cue ball was headed for the side pocket
a lot, and found it more than I expected.
Orcollo scratched two or three times by midway through his last match alone.


Lionize your game.
http://www.alexpagulayan.com/

MAGIC CHALK call Marco Polo 647-287-8131

https://www.facebook.com/skriptik/?ref=page_internal POOL PENS
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#7)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 8,613
vCash: 500
iTrader: 76 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-29-2015, 12:12 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
I'm curious about the stats on fouls on breaks....the cue ball was headed for the side pocket
a lot, and found it more than I expected.
Orcollo scratched two or three times by midway through his last match alone.
So far, 33 breaking fouls in 412 games = 8%.

Last year, for all 6 days of streamed matches, the figure was 9%.

[Orcollo ended up with 4 scratches on the break in that last match and still won 11-7!]
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#8)
pt109
WO double hemlock

pt109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond repute
 
pt109's Avatar
 
Status: Online
Posts: 20,646
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: out of country but incontinent
   
10-29-2015, 12:21 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
So far, 33 breaking fouls in 412 games = 8%.

Last year, for all 6 days of streamed matches, the figure was 9%.

[Orcollo ended up with 4 scratches on the break in that last match and still won 11-7!]
I think Orcollo got lucky...Uchigaki looked tired and made untypical mistakes.

I saw a lot of cue balls heading for side pocket on the breaker's left....a lot got kissed out
but I figured the scratch rate might be high.
The best breaks I saw....the cue ball was hitting the second rail after passing the side pocket.

As usual, sir, thanx for your info.


Lionize your game.
http://www.alexpagulayan.com/

MAGIC CHALK call Marco Polo 647-287-8131

https://www.facebook.com/skriptik/?ref=page_internal POOL PENS
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#9)
jwilliams
Lapsus calami!
jwilliams has a reputation beyond reputejwilliams has a reputation beyond reputejwilliams has a reputation beyond reputejwilliams has a reputation beyond reputejwilliams has a reputation beyond reputejwilliams has a reputation beyond reputejwilliams has a reputation beyond reputejwilliams has a reputation beyond reputejwilliams has a reputation beyond reputejwilliams has a reputation beyond reputejwilliams has a reputation beyond repute
 
jwilliams's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 288
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
   
10-29-2015, 02:09 AM

Something that would also be interesting to see, would be the percentage of games won by the "top tier" players who made a ball on the break vs the win percentage of "lower tier" players who made a ball on the break. Admittedly these two categories are a bit subjective, but we could probably come to a reasonable consensus on the top 5 to 10 players vs the bottom 5 to 10 players in the tournament. It wouldn't have to be perfect. Fargo rate would work well enough. It would just be interesting to see how much those two groups skew the overall average. Not really expecting this by the way...just thinking out loud. :-)
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#10)
Dan_B
AzB Silver Member
Dan_B has a reputation beyond reputeDan_B has a reputation beyond reputeDan_B has a reputation beyond reputeDan_B has a reputation beyond reputeDan_B has a reputation beyond reputeDan_B has a reputation beyond reputeDan_B has a reputation beyond reputeDan_B has a reputation beyond reputeDan_B has a reputation beyond reputeDan_B has a reputation beyond reputeDan_B has a reputation beyond repute
 
Dan_B's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 875
vCash: 480
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Conway, Arkansas
   
10-29-2015, 06:17 AM

Understanding post #2; after 412 games there have been no “9 on the break” wins and, a slight decrease of favoring the breaker with the 9 on the spot...

...on smaller tables?
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#11)
Tobermory
AzB Silver Member
Tobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 214
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Sep 2012
   
10-29-2015, 06:44 AM

I know that many people hate the following idea, but I will, once again, make the suggestion.

If "At Large's" statistics hold true--that the breaker makes a ball only fifty percent of the time and that only 20% of the time that he does make a ball on the break does he run out--it seems to me that nine ball would not lose a great deal in spectator appeal if it were played that WHOEVER WINS THE BREAK MUST PUSH OUT! Speaking for myself, I would rather watch a player agonize over where to push out to or calculate whether to accept the shot after a push out than watch a player endlessly rack and re-rack the balls.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#12)
JAM
On the Hill
JAM has a reputation beyond reputeJAM has a reputation beyond reputeJAM has a reputation beyond reputeJAM has a reputation beyond reputeJAM has a reputation beyond reputeJAM has a reputation beyond reputeJAM has a reputation beyond reputeJAM has a reputation beyond reputeJAM has a reputation beyond reputeJAM has a reputation beyond reputeJAM has a reputation beyond repute
 
JAM's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 33,071
vCash: 325
iTrader: 1 / 100%
Join Date: Oct 2004
   
10-29-2015, 06:49 AM

Just curious, but what percentage do you think the break is to winning a match?

I'm thinking that the way these guys shoot, the break is at least 50 percent of the game. What are your thoughts?


.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#13)
Tobermory
AzB Silver Member
Tobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond reputeTobermory has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 214
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Sep 2012
   
10-29-2015, 07:30 AM

Dear "JAM,"

Looking at "At Large's" statistics, I have to come to the conclusion that the break is not significant at all. If the breaker wins only half of the games on which he makes a ball and doesn't foul, the advantage of the break looks as if it is nearly the same as a coin flip!

"JRWilliams," however, complicates the analysis by suggesting that the numbers have to be filtered according to the success rate of "top tier" players contrasted with middle range players. Perhaps there is an advantage for top tier players to make a ball on the break.

I am viewing this from the angle of a spectator. "At Large's" statistics seem to indicate that, for pool players as a whole, the break doesn't have much to do with the outcome of a game. But the fiddling with the rack does have a great deal to do with the enjoyment of the audience. I'm willing to trade whatever slight apparent advantage the top players may have on the break for a fairly large increase in the general appeal of the sport.

I'll let a cat out of the bag. When I play in a one-pocket tournament and I draw a player whom I do not recognize, I often go out of my way to lose the lag for the opening break. I have a lot more opponents leak a ball out for me on their first break than I have lay a killer trap on me. Even when the break looks like a great advantage, it may not be.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#14)
Joe T
Senior Member
Joe T has a reputation beyond reputeJoe T has a reputation beyond reputeJoe T has a reputation beyond reputeJoe T has a reputation beyond reputeJoe T has a reputation beyond reputeJoe T has a reputation beyond reputeJoe T has a reputation beyond reputeJoe T has a reputation beyond reputeJoe T has a reputation beyond reputeJoe T has a reputation beyond reputeJoe T has a reputation beyond repute
 
Joe T's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 1,979
vCash: 3000
iTrader: 13 / 100%
Join Date: May 2003
   
10-29-2015, 07:55 AM

Thanks again AtLarge.

Stats looking similar but it its a lot more fun for me to watch. Racking is faster, arguments reduced, less cheating, more cue ball risk of scratching when playing the corner ball. The break that seems to work best calls for accuracy with some pace which makes things less predictable. And definitely MORE play battling for shots.

To me it looks like a nice compromise of the smash and hope break and the soft break. Corner ball is playable with a good hit, far from dead and its not as easy to pay shape on the 1 ball as it use to be.

Knocking on wood as I type.


Joe T
New Video School now up & it's free!
http://www.joetucker.net
1999 "10 Ball is a coming, slowly but surely!"
Racking Secrets II with Breaking Secrets now available
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#15)
pt109
WO double hemlock

pt109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond repute
 
pt109's Avatar
 
Status: Online
Posts: 20,646
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: out of country but incontinent
   
10-29-2015, 08:58 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan_B View Post
Understanding post #2; after 412 games there have been no “9 on the break” wins and, a slight decrease of favoring the breaker with the 9 on the spot...

...on smaller tables?
I've seen one nine made on the break....in the side...breaker's left.


Lionize your game.
http://www.alexpagulayan.com/

MAGIC CHALK call Marco Polo 647-287-8131

https://www.facebook.com/skriptik/?ref=page_internal POOL PENS
  
Reply With Quote
Reply
Page 1 of 3 1 23

Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.