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Break Stats -- 2015 Mosconi Cup, Dec. 2015
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Break Stats -- 2015 Mosconi Cup, Dec. 2015 - 12-08-2015, 07:57 PM

Here are some break results for the Mosconi Cup played this week (Dec. 7 - Dec.10) at the Tropicana Las Vegas Casino Hotel Resort. This event is 9-ball racing to 11 matches, with each match being a race to 5 games. The format is one team match (everyone plays one game, then repeat until one side wins 5 games), 7 doubles matches, and up to 13 singles matches (only 10 were played). Europe won 11-7 (the scores favored Europe each of the 4 days -- 3-2, 3-2, 3-2, and 2-1).

The players for the U.S. were Shane Van Boening, Corey Deuel, Mike Dechaine, Justin Bergman, and Skyler Woodward. The players for Europe were Niels Feijen, Darren Appleton, Nick van den Berg, Karl Boyes, and Albin Ouschan.

The conditions for this event included the following: Diamond 9' table with 4" corner pockets, Simonis blue cloth, Aramith balls, measles cue ball, jump cues allowed, referee racks in a standard triangle rack with the 9-ball on the foot spot, alternate breaks, break from anywhere behind the head string, no illegal-break rule, 30-sec. shot clock (60 sec. after the break), one 30-sec. extension per side per game, foul on all balls, and all slop counts.

The following stats are for all 4 days of the event combined.

The U.S. broke 71 times, with the following results:
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 33 (46%)
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 21 (30%)
• Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 4 (6%)
• Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 13 (18%)

Europe also broke 71 times, with the following results:
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 31 (44%)
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 14 (20%)
• Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 12 (17%)
• Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 14 (20%)

For the two teams combined, the breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 70% (99 of 142) of the time; the breaking side won 56% (80 of 142) of the games; and the breaking side won 65% (64 of 99) of the games in which the breaker made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
• USA -- 20 out of 71 (28%)
• Europe -- 17 out of 71 (24%) including one 9-ball on the break
• Total -- 37 out of 142 (26%)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
• USA -- 20 out of 54 (37%)
• Europe -- 17 out of 45 (38%)
• Total -- 37 out of 99 (37%)

Last edited by AtLarge; 12-16-2015 at 03:28 PM.
  
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12-08-2015, 07:58 PM

Here are some results for DAYS 1 and 2 Combined -- Mon. 12/7 and Tues. 12/8. The score was 3-2 on Day 1 and 3-2 on Day 2, both in Europe's favor, for a total of 6-4 after two days.

The U.S. broke 38 times, with the following results:
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 14 (37%)
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 12 (32%)
• Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 3 (8%)
• Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 9 (24%)

Europe broke 39 times, with the following results:
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 16 (41%)
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 10 (26%)
• Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 5 (13%)
• Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 8 (21%)

For the two teams combined, the breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 68% (52 of 77) of the time; the breaking side won 49% (38 of 77) of the games; and the breaking side won 58% (30 of 52) of the games in which the breaker made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.

Break-and-run on all breaks:
• USA -- 10 out of 38 (26%)
• Europe -- 8 out of 39 (21%)
• Total -- 18 out of 77 (23%)

Break-and-run on successful breaks:
• USA -- 10 out of 26 (38%)
• Europe -- 8 out of 26 (31%)
• Total -- 18 out of 52 (35%)

Last edited by AtLarge; 12-11-2015 at 12:11 PM.
  
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12-08-2015, 09:53 PM

Are these stats weaker than usual?
  
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12-08-2015, 11:22 PM

Do you have records of how many shots that Corey and Mike doggy?
  
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12-08-2015, 11:36 PM

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Originally Posted by skip100 View Post
Are these stats weaker than usual?
Here's a comparison of this year (77 games) with last year (74 games) for the first two days combined, for both teams combined. The break rules were the same both years.

Successful breaks -- 68% this year, 73% last year.
Breaking side won game -- 49% this year, 65% last year.
Breaking side won game on successful breaks -- 58% this year, 72% last year.
B&R on all breaks -- 23% this year, 35% last year.
B&R on successful breaks -- 35% this year, 48% last year.

Perhaps the smaller pockets this year are having an effect.

Last edited by AtLarge; 12-11-2015 at 12:12 PM.
  
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12-08-2015, 11:53 PM

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Originally Posted by july9x View Post
Do you have records of how many shots that Corey and Mike doggy?
A quick look (don't hold me to it) at my notes shows about 3 misses and 4 fouls for Dechaine (and some horrible safeties that cost games) and 6 misses and 2 fouls for Deuel. Both players have been in two doubles matches; Dechaine has played a singles match but Deuel has not.
  
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12-09-2015, 12:39 AM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
A quick look (don't hold me to it) at my notes shows about 3 misses and 4 fouls for Dechaine (and some horrible safeties that cost games) and 6 misses and 2 fouls for Deuel. Both players have been in two doubles matches; Dechaine has played a singles match but Deuel has not.
Do you have anything similar for Woodward?
  
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12-09-2015, 12:46 PM

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Originally Posted by SakuJack View Post
Do you have anything similar for Woodward?
Through the first two days, I've got Woodward with 7 misses and 4 fouls. Six of the misses came in the singles match loss to Boyes.
  
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12-09-2015, 12:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Here's a comparison of this year (77 games) with last year (74 games) for the first two days combined, for both teams combined. The break rules were the same both years.

Successful breaks -- 68% this year, 73% last year.
Breaking side won game -- 49% this year, 65% last year.
Breaking side won game on successful breaks -- 58% this year, 72% last year.
B&R on all breaks -- 22% this year, 35% last year.
B&R on successful breaks -- 33% this year, 48% last year.

Perhaps the smaller pockets this year are having an effect.
Thanks for the info. With identical break rules the pockets are the obvious culprit.
  
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12-09-2015, 01:01 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Through the first two days, I've got Woodward with 7 misses and 4 fouls. Six of the misses came in the singles match loss to Boyes.
Thanks (apparently I have to spread some around before repping you again).
  
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12-09-2015, 06:57 PM

Here are some results for DAYS 1 through 3 Combined -- Mon. 12/7 - Wed. 12/9. The score was 3-2 in Europe's favor on each of the 3 days, for a total of 9-6 after 3 days.

The U.S. broke 57 times, with the following results:
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 26 (46%)
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 16 (28%)
• Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 3 (5%)
• Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 12 (21%)

Europe broke 58 times, with the following results:
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 25 (43%)
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 12 (21%)
• Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 10 (17%)
• Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 11 (19%)

For the two teams combined, the breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 69% (79 of 115) of the time; the breaking side won 56% (64 of 115) of the games; and the breaking side won 65% (51 of 79) of the games in which the breaker made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
• USA -- 15 out of 57 (26%)
• Europe -- 13 out of 58 (22%) including one 9-ball on the break
• Total -- 28 out of 115 (24%)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
• USA -- 15 out of 42 (36%)
• Europe -- 13 out of 37 (35%)
• Total -- 28 out of 79 (35%)

Last edited by AtLarge; 12-11-2015 at 12:14 PM.
  
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12-10-2015, 01:54 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
The U.S. broke 57 times, with the following results:
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 26 (46%)
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 16 (28%)
Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 3 (5%)
Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 12 (21%)

Europe broke 58 times, with the following results:
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 25 (43%)
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 12 (21%)
Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 10 (17%)
Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 11 (19%)
Thanks for this.

Interesting that the US are clearly out-breaking Europe this year. I know in previous years the break has been cited as an advantage for the European team, so credit to the US team's preparation this year.

Also, it was interesting to hear the commentary team last night repeatedly refer to Europe's breaking advantage.

A key stat for me is the US only winning 20% of the games they break dry in, compared to Europe winning 48% of theirs. To me, that indicates a European advantage in the safety battles, something I would say is backed up anecdotally from the matches I've seen.
  
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12-10-2015, 04:57 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by SakuJack View Post
Thanks for this.

Interesting that the US are clearly out-breaking Europe this year. I know in previous years the break has been cited as an advantage for the European team, so credit to the US team's preparation this year.

Also, it was interesting to hear the commentary team last night repeatedly refer to Europe's breaking advantage.

A key stat for me is the US only winning 20% of the games they break dry in, compared to Europe winning 48% of theirs. To me, that indicates a European advantage in the safety battles, something I would say is backed up anecdotally from the matches I've seen.
While I don't disagree that Eur plays better safeties, that stat doesn't necessarily mean they do.

Maybe the Euros are getting clearer shots on the 1 ball to play safe, while the Americans are pushing out more (a disadvantage in itself).
  
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12-10-2015, 04:57 AM

AtLarge

You're missing the most important stat. The one thing the Americans were supposed to work on more than anything else.

THE LAG!
  
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12-10-2015, 05:10 AM

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Originally Posted by BeiberLvr View Post
While I don't disagree that Eur plays better safeties, that stat doesn't necessarily mean they do.

Maybe the Euros are getting clearer shots on the 1 ball to play safe, while the Americans are pushing out more (a disadvantage in itself).
Yeah sorry I wasn't all that clear. I don't think it necessarily means they play better safeties (correlation =/= causation and all that) and the sample size is hardly huge, but it definitely backs up what I've observed from the matches this year; Europe winning the safety battles and generally coming out on top in the tighter, pressure filled frames.
  
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