Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXV 9-Ball Open, January 2016

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 23 9-Ball matches streamed free by AZBtv this week from the Turning Stone Classic XXV in Verona, New York.

The conditions for this event included: Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets, Tournament Blue Simonis 860 cloth, Aramith Tournament TV balls with the measles cue ball, Diamond wooden rack, winner breaks from the box (2 diamonds wide), loser racks, cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting, no jump cues allowed, and all slop counts.

The 23 matches (329 games) were as follows. [Note: These stats are for 320 games instead of 329, as I missed the first 2 games of the Morgan/Nagle match and the first 7 games of the Archer/Herring match.]

Thurs., Jan. 7, 2016
Yu-Hsuan ("Keven") Cheng defeated Greg Antonakos 9-1, Shaun Wilke d. Danny Hewitt 9-5,​
Mario Morra d. Holden Chin 9-5, and Rodney Morris d. Ron Casanzio 9-6.​
Fri., Jan. 8
Sean Morgan d. Bruce Nagle 9-8, Brandon Shuff d. Joe Dupuis 9-2,​
Jerry Crowe d. Randy Labonte 9-7, Ko Pin-Yi d. Karen Corr 9-4,​
Tom McGonagle d. Ed Saur 9-6, Jayson Shaw d. R. Morris 9-8, and Luc Salvas d. Lee Brett 9-4.​
Sat., Jan. 9
Johnny Archer d. Earl Herring 9-5, Jeremy Sossei d. Matt Krah 9-7,​
Oscar Dominguez d. J. Shaw 9-5, D. Hewitt d. K. Corr 9-3,​
Mike Dechaine d. Ko Ping-Chung 9-6, Mika Immonen d. K. Cheng 9-8, and R. Morris d. M. Morra 9-7.​
Sun., Jan. 10
Erik Hjorleifson d. O. Dominguez 9-4, O. Dominguez d. K. Cheng 9-6,​
E. Hjorleifson d. M. Immonen 9-4, M. Immonen d. O. Dominguez 9-5, and M. Immonen d. E. Hjorleifson 13-2 (Finals).​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 56% of the time (179 of 320), won 52% of the games (166 of 320), and broke and ran 19% of the games (61 of 320).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 320 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 111 (35% of the 320 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 68 (21%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 8 (3%)​
Breaker lost the game: 15 (5%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 47 (15%)​
Breaker lost the game: 71 (22%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 52% (166 of 320) of all games,​
He won 62% (111 of 179) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 35% (8 of 23) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 40% (47 of 118) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 39% (55 of 141) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

Break-and-run games: The 61 break-and-run games represented 19% of all 320 games, 37% of the 166 games won by the breaker, and 34% of the 179 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul). The 61 break-and-run games (including 9's on the break) consisted of one 5-pack (by Immonen in the Finals), two 3-packs (by Immonen in the Finals and by Casanzio), five 2-packs, and 40 singles.

9-balls on the break:
The 61 break-and-run games included 8 9-balls on the break (2.5% of the 320 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on the break when the breaker scratched, so it was spotted. [I also understand, from the commentators, that Archer made the 9-ball on the break twice in the 7 games I missed from his match with Herring. That would raise the percentage to 3.1%.]
 
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Miscellany from the data for the Turning Stone Classic XXV 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 23 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• No one made more than 3 balls on the break, and that happened just 6 times.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.8 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). Excluding dry breaks, the average was 1.4. When the breaker stayed at the table (i.e., excluding dry and fouled breaks), the average also was 1.4.

• 39% (126 of 320) of the games ended in one inning – 19% won by the breaker (B&R) and 20% won by the non-breaker. 13% (40 of 320) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 30% (97 of 320) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 34% (61 of 179)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 52% (12 of 23)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 20% (24 of 118)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 49% of the time (153 of 312)​
- Won the game in a later inning 21% of the time (67 of 312)​
- Lost the game 29% of the time (92 of 312)​
[Note -- total games used here are 312 rather than 320 to eliminate the 8 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• For the 22 races to 9 (i.e., excluding the finals race to 13) the loser won an average of 5.3 games. The loser won 3 or fewer games in 3 of those 22 matches. Three of those 22 matches went hill/hill.

• The average elapsed time for the 22 races to 9 was 79 minutes, or 5.5 minutes per game. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The Dominguez d. Cheng match was longest in elapsed time at 120 minutes and highest in average minutes per game at 8.0 min./game for the 15 games.

• The Salvas d. Brett match was shortest in elapsed time at 35 minutes and lowest in average minutes per game at 2.7 for the 13 games.

• Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 14 games, other fouls 1 for every 4 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.7 games.

• About 45% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 
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Tournament winner Mika Immonen appeared in 4 streamed matches.

For his first 3 appearances combined, he broke successfully at a 75% rate (15 of 20), won the game on 40% (8 of 20) of his breaks, and broke and ran on 15% (3 of 20) of his breaks.

In the finals, he broke successfully on all 12 of his breaks, won 10 of those 12 games (83%), and notched 8 B&R's on the 12 breaks (67%).
 
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