Break Stats -- Orcollo vs. Ko P-Y 10-Ball Challenge Match, January 2016

AtLarge

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Here are some results from Day 3 (only) of the 10-Ball challenge match between Dennis Orcollo and Ko Pin-Yi played the past 3 days (Jan. 13-15) at Steinway Billiards in NYC with pay-per-view live streaming from AzBtv.

This event was a race to 100, with Orcollo leading 33-28 after Day 1, 66-64 after Day 2, and 100-92 at the end.

The conditions for this call-shot (but not call-safety) 10-ball match included the following: 9-foot Brunswick Gold Crown III table with 4" corner pockets, Simonis 860 HR green cloth, player choice of a racking template (Magic Rack, I think) or a Delta 13 rack (all breaks were with the template on Day 3), jump cues allowed, winner breaks from anywhere behind the line, and breaker racks for himself with the 1-ball on the foot spot and the 2- and 3-balls on the back corners.

Orcollo broke 33 times, with the following results:
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 16 (48%)​
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 8 (24%)​
Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 5 (15%)​
Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 4 (12%)​

Ko broke 29 times, with the following results:
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 16 (55%)​
Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 9 (31%)​
Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 0 (0%)​
Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 4 (14%)​

For the two players combined, the breaker made at least one ball and did not foul 79% of the time (49 of 62), won 60% of the games (37 of 62), won 65% of the games (32 of 49) in which he made a ball on the break without fouling, broke and ran 29% of the games (18 of 62), and broke and ran 37% of the games (18 of 49) in which he made a ball on the break without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Orcollo -- 6 of 33 (18%), consisting of one 2-pack and four singles​
Ko -- 12 of 29 (41%), consisting of one 5-pack, three 2-packs, and one single​
Total -- 18 of 62 (29%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Orcollo -- 6 of 24 (25%)​
Ko -- 12 of 25 (48%)​
Total -- 18 of 49 (37%)​

Fouls:
Orcollo -- 7 (including 3 on the break)​
Ko -- 11 (including 3 on the break)​
Total -- 18​

Missed shots (approximately):
Orcollo -- 18​
Ko -- 26​
Total -- 44​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Orcollo -- 1.2 on all breaks; 1.4 on successful breaks​
Ko -- 1.4 on all breaks; 1.5 on successful breaks​
Total -- 1.3 on all breaks; 1.5 on successful breaks​

Match (Day 3) length = 9 hours and 24 minutes, for an average of 9.1 minutes per game. [Note: This included racking and timeouts.]
 
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The biggest thing I gather from those stats is 10-Ball is not all about the break. At least in this match.

Would that be a fair assessment?

Oh, and thanks as always.
 
I disagree; the break is huge in 10 ball. Then again, so are missed shots. Ko missed a lot (~50% more times) then Dennis.

Excluding the misses, Ko out broke and out ran racks. If he cut his unforced errors down, day 3 would have been like Custers last stand (in favor of Ko).

On a side note, if Dennis doesnt break better, he is not gonna hold that $20k winnings for a long time. Shanes break/run numbers look more like Ko's.


Eric
 
I was there, and saw the entire match. Not true that it's not about the break. The table conditions made it extremely difficult for the two to find the sweet spot, but eventually, about 1/2 way into day two, bot Dennis and Ko had the break down averaging almost 2 balls per break. The difference was Dennis' defensive play, fewer unforced errors and his mental toughness to the end.

The table was very tight with 4 inch pockets and 4 month old cloth, which was not conducive to sinking balls on the snap, but after about 20 hours, both players figured it out.

20k.jpg
 
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The biggest stat:

Missed shots (approximately):
Orcollo -- 18
Ko -- 26
Total -- 44

Maybe Ko's shot selection or pattern play or both needs work.
 
I think the stat that At Large hung in for every game of a 3-day match is unparalleled on this forum.

Huge thanks to you sir. He only took breaks when they did! Unreal unreal unreal.

FACT: At Large is the Willie Mosconi of Rail Birds.

:clapping::bow-down::clapping::bow-down::clapping::bow-down::clapping::bow-down:

Green to you sir!
 
The biggest stat:

Missed shots (approximately):
Orcollo -- 18
Ko -- 26
Total -- 44

Maybe Ko's shot selection or pattern play or both needs work.

I agree.

Ko definitely (from what I saw) went for shots that had a higher percentage for the safety.
 
One thing I have to give to Dennis is that nobody gives 100% on each shot like he does.
 
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The biggest stat:

Missed shots (approximately):
Orcollo -- 18
Ko -- 26
Total -- 44

Maybe Ko's shot selection or pattern play or both needs work.

Many of the shots Ko missed were high percentage. He seemed to have lost focus at times. Dennis actually attempted many very difficult shots, but with his concentration and accuracy he was able to pull them off.

I thought Ko's patterns were exceptionally good, but the grind or heat got to him a bit more on day 3.Let's not forget this was a very close match. These are two evenly paired opponents.
 
The long race tends to bring out the true player. I wish that I could have watched it but I had to work. I do appreciate everyone's input on the updates.

Onestroke, you're sounding like some of the die hard SVB fans. There's always an excuse. Ko missed more shots so he lost. He's still one of the best in the world. He'll be back.

Stats don't lie. So if he played solid patterns but missed easy shots, then he needs to put a leash on the dog.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Thanks for the kudos there, CK, but I think you didn't read post #1 closely enough.:smile:

Ha ha - I missed that.

You still get green from the 9 hours on Day 3.
I purchased Day 1 and 3 and couldn't hang in there for more than 4 or 5 hours combined.

That's quite the commitment and your work should be honored here. I suggest your own section of the forum with a catalog of your statistics. With compensation of course.:thumbup:
 
No, his shot selection and pattern play were impeccable. Most of those missed shots came in the second half of the 3rd session, when it was critical that Ko stay with Dennis. What he needs to work on is mental toughness, when your physical self is under great stress.
 
No, his shot selection and pattern play were impeccable. Most of those missed shots came in the second half of the 3rd session, when it was critical that Ko stay with Dennis. What he needs to work on is mental toughness, when your physical self is under great stress.[/QUOTE

True ,, however if your not used to playing these long sets the mental toughness wears out not cause you don't have it but because your not trained for it ,, as someone if not the only one here that's actualy seen a sports shrink
I can tell you that you just can't step up to a match like this and expect your best performance ,, DO has played many of them we have seen him wilt under the same pressures ,, considering it's Kos first Rodeo he held up really well ,, he will grow from this no doubt ,, next time late in the match instead of walking around taking pictures with the rail birds he might make sure his opponents not practicing breaks trying to improve ,,
That long of match is no longer a battle of the best skilled player it's a battle cof contrition

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