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Break Stats -- 2016 US Open 8-Ball Championship, July 2016
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Break Stats -- 2016 US Open 8-Ball Championship, July 2016 - 07-25-2016, 08:57 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2016 US Open 8-Ball Championship, played the past three days at the Rio Las Vegas Resort & Casino. The promoter, CueSports International, provided pay-per-view streaming.

Conditions -- The conditions for this call-shot 8-Ball event included:
- Diamond 7-foot table with 4½" pro-cut corner pockets;
- Simonis 860 Tournament Blue cloth;
- Cyclop TV balls, including the red-spot cue ball;
- jump cues allowed;
- breaker racks using the Magic Rack template;
- alternating breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- table open after the break;
- ball in hand anywhere on the table after a foul on the break;
- cue-ball fouls only;
- for an 8-ball made on the break, it is breaker's choice to spot the 8-ball and continue shooting or to re-break..

These stats are for all 13 streamed matches, which were 11% of the event's total matches:

Saturday, July 23
  • Francisco Bustamante defeated Robb Saez 9-3
  • Rodney Morris d. Mike Dechaine 9-7
  • Oscar Dominguez d. Shaun Wilkie 9-8
  • Thorsten Hohmann d. Justin Bergman 9-8

Sunday, July 24
  • Josh Roberts d. Matt Edwards 9-6
  • Corey Deuel d. Skyler Woodward 9-5
  • Shane Van Boening d. Shane McMinn 9-5
  • Rory Hendrickson d. Jesse Bowman 9-8 (hot-seat match)
  • Van Boening d. Bustamante 9-8

Monday, July 25
  • Roberts d. Dechaine 9-4
  • Van Boening d. Roberts 9-6
  • Van Boening d. Bowman 9-4 (semifinals)
  • Van Boening d. Hendrickson 11-6 (finals)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball and did not foul 76% of the time (149 of 197), won 64% of the games (127 of 197), and broke and ran 53% of the games (104 of 197).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 197 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • • Breaker won the game: 112 (57% of the 197 games)
  • • Breaker lost the game: 37 (19%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • • Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)
  • • Breaker lost the game: 15 (8%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • • Breaker won the game: 13 (7%)
  • • Breaker lost the game: 18 (9%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 64% (127) of all 197 games,
  • • He won 75% (112 of 149) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • • He won 12% (2 of 17) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • • He won 42% (13 of 31) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • • He won 31% (15 of 48) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 104 break-and-run games represented 53% of all 197 games, 82% of the 127 games won by the breaker, and 70% of the 149 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 104 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 8-pack (Van Boening), 1 alternate-break 7-pack (Deuel), 1 alternate-break 5-pack (Van Boening), 3 alternate-break 4-packs, 4 alternate break 3-packs, 18 alternate-break 2-packs, and 24 singles.

8-balls on the break: The 8-ball was made on the break 6 times (3.0% of the 197 games). The breaker chose to spot it 5 times and to re-break once.
  
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07-25-2016, 08:58 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2016 US Open 8-Ball Championship:
[This relates only to the 13 streamed matches, not to all the matches in the event.]

• In tournament winner Van Boening's 5 streamed matches, he broke successfully at a 79% rate (30 of 38), won on his break at an 82% rate (31 of 38), and broke and ran at a 68% rate (26 of 38). The comparable figures for the other players in the streamed matches were 75%, 60%, and 49%, respectively.

• The most balls made on a single break was 5, done just once, by Roberts. He ran out that game from the break.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.4 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.7.

• 86% (170 of 197) of the games ended in one inning – 53% (104) won by the breaker (B&R) and 34% (66) won by the non-breaker. Twenty-two games (11% of 197) ended in the second inning, and only 5 games (2.5% of 197) went beyond the second inning.

• 69% (136 of 197) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 70% (104 of 149)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 88% (15 of 17)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 55% (17 of 31)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 70% of the time (138 of 197)
- Won the game in a later inning 4% of the time (7 of 197)
- Lost the game 26% of the time (52 of 197)

• The loser won an average of 6.0 games in the 12 races to 9. Four of those matches went to hill/hill; one finished at 9-3 (the shortest).

• Fargo Favorites -- The player with the higher Fargo Rating at the start of the match won 69% (9 of 13) of the matches.

• The average elapsed time for the 12 races to 9 was 86 minutes. The average minutes per game, including the races to both 9 and 11, was 5.7. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts (exception -- a medical timeout of about 16 minutes for a nosebleed was excluded).

• The match that was both longest in elapsed time (121 min.) and highest in average minutes per game (7.1 min./game) was O. Dominguez d. Wilkie 9-8.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time (61 min.) and lowest in average minutes per game (4.1 min./game) was Van Boening's "perfect" match defeating Roberts 9-6.

• Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 12 games, other fouls 1 for every 13 games, and missed shots 1 for every 3.5 games.

• Only 9 of the games (4.6%) involved one or more safeties.

Last edited by AtLarge; 07-25-2016 at 09:00 PM.
  
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07-26-2016, 12:57 PM

Thanks for providing the stats on the streamed matches. It's always interesting to see how you compare with the professionals. I can only say WOW!

JoeyA


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07-26-2016, 01:33 PM

53% break and run, that's crazy. Two out of three times they made a ball on the break they ran out.
  
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07-26-2016, 01:47 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by skip100 View Post
53% break and run, that's crazy. Two out of three times they made a ball on the break they ran out.
Yup. And that (2 of 3) is how it was last year (or even a bit higher) in this event, and that's how it is for the top players with 8-Ball on 9-footers as well.

I've said this before -- I kind of waiver between (a) feeling that 8-Ball is just a lousy game for discriminating among top pros and (b) just admiring the skill they display in achieving all those run-outs.
  
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07-26-2016, 02:28 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Yup. And that (2 of 3) is how it was last year (or even a bit higher) in this event, and that's how it is for the top players with 8-Ball on 9-footers as well.

I've said this before -- I kind of waiver between (a) feeling that 8-Ball is just a lousy game for discriminating among top pros and (b) just admiring the skill they display in achieving all those run-outs.
Chinese 8 Ball is one way (perhaps the only way) to make this game appropriately difficult for the pros.
  
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07-26-2016, 02:35 PM

The figure that disappoints me the most is that only 9 games involved one or more safties. I enjoy a good safety battle.


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