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Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXVI 9-Ball Open, August 2016
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Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXVI 9-Ball Open, August 2016 - 08-28-2016, 08:05 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 9-Ball matches streamed free by AZBtv this week from the Turning Stone Classic XXVI in Verona, New York.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with 4" pro-cut corner pockets;
- Tournament Blue Simonis 860 cloth;
- Aramith Tournament TV balls with the measles cue ball;
- Diamond wooden rack;
- winner breaks from the box (2 diamonds wide);
- loser racks (except in one match, where a ref racked all but one game), with the 1-ball on the spot;
- cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting;
- no jump cues allowed; and
- all slop counts.

The 20 matches (273 games) I watched were as follows. [Note: These stats are for 272 games instead of 273, as the camera was pointed elsewhere during the first part of one game in the Corr/Dudanets match.] These stats do not include the semifinal match, which I was not able to watch.

Thurs., Aug. 25. 2016
Earl Herring defeated Charley Lamarche 9-1, Mike Dechaine d. Joe Dupuis 9-4,
Martin Daigle d. Erik Hjorleifson 9-4, and Shaun Wilkie d. Jorge Rodriguez 9-6.

Fri., Aug. 26
Jayson Shaw d. Bucky Souvanthong 9-0, Brandon Shuff d. Spencer Auigbelle 9-3,
Zion Zvi d. Luc Salvas 9-3, Nelson Oliveira d. Paul Rozonewski 9-7,
Maksim Dudanets d. Tom D'Alfonso 9-7, and Dawn Fox d. Jed Jecen 9-5.

Sat., Aug. 27
Kevin Guimond d. Ed Abraham 9-2, Earl Strickland d. Rodney Morris 9-5,
Jarrod Clowery d. T. D'Alfonso 9-5, Brandon Shuff d. Cleiton Rocha 9-4,
Karen Corr d. M. Dudanets 9-8, and M. Dechaine d. Joey Cicero 9-5.

Sun., Aug. 28
J. Shaw d. E. Strickland 9-6, Donny Mills d. M. Dechaine 9-7,
J. Shaw d. K. Corr 9-2, and J. Shaw d. K. Corr 13-5 (Finals).

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 54% of the time (148 of 272), won 55% of the games (149 of 272), and broke and ran 18% of the games (49 of 272).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 272 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 89 (33% of the 272 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 59 (22%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 7 (3%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 57 (21%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 57 (21%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 55% (149 of 272) of all games,
  • He won 60% (89 of 148) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 30% (3 of 10) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 50% (57 of 114) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 48% (60 of 124) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 49 break-and-run games represented 18% of all 272 games, 33% of the 149 games won by the breaker, and 33% of the 148 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul). The 49 break-and-run games (including 9's on the break) consisted of five 2-packs and 39 singles. No one in these 20 streamed matches broke and ran more than two games in a row.

9-balls on the break -- The 49 break-and-run games included just 2 9-balls on the break (0.7% of the 272 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on the break when the breaker scratched, so it was spotted.

Last edited by AtLarge; 08-31-2016 at 12:29 PM.
  
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08-28-2016, 08:05 PM

Miscellany from the data for the Turning Stone Classic XXVI 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 20 streamed matches I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

No one made more than 3 balls on the break, and that happened just twice.

The average number of balls made on the break was 0.8 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4.

36% (97 of 272) of the games ended in one inning 18% (49) won by the breaker (B&R) and 18% (48) won by the non-breaker. 19% (52 of 272) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

25% (68 of 272) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 33% (49 of 148)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 30% (3 of 10)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks 14% (16 of 114)

The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 43% of the time (117 of 270)
- Won the game in a later inning 21% of the time (57 of 270)
- Lost the game 36% of the time (96 of 270)
[Note -- total games used here are 270 rather than 272 to eliminate the 2 games in which no ball was made after the break.]

For the 19 races to 9 (i.e., excluding the finals race to 13) the loser won an average of 4.4 games. The loser won 3 or fewer games in 6 of those 19 matches. Just one of those 19 matches went hill/hill, and it ended with a 9-ball on the break!

Fargo Favorites -- The player with the higher Fargo Rating at the start of the match won 61% (11 of 18) of the matches. [Excludes two matches for which one of the player's ratings was unknown.]

The average elapsed time for the 19 races to 9 was 77 minutes, or 5.8 minutes per game. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

The Corr d. Dudanets match was longest in elapsed time at 130 minutes and highest in average minutes per game at 7.6 min./game for the 17 games.

The Shaw d. Souvanthong match was shortest in elapsed time at 33 minutes and lowest in average minutes per game at 3.7 for the 9 games.

Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 27 games, other fouls 1 for every 3 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.2 games.

About 48% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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08-28-2016, 08:39 PM

Interesting statistics, especially the break stats. Thanks for keeping track and sharing.
  
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08-28-2016, 09:09 PM

Great statistics, sir.
As always you amaze and were rightfully noted in Bob jewetts column in last month's billiards digest.

Thank you for your time and efforts.

One more favor...

In the Mills vs Dechaine match there was a neutral racker incorporated after one rack. Do you have the break statistics for just that match? And how did they compare to the rest of the matches you saw, and if possible...compared to that player with opponent racking?
  
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08-28-2016, 09:39 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardigan Kid View Post
...In the Mills vs Dechaine match there was a neutral racker incorporated after one rack. Do you have the break statistics for just that match? And how did they compare to the rest of the matches you saw, and if possible...compared to that player with opponent racking?
Mills broke successfully in that match 3 of 8 times (no B&R's) and Dechaine 4 of 8 with 2 B&R's (one of his dry breaks was in Game 1 before the ref started racking, so 4 of 7 with the ref). The comparable stats for all the streamed matches I watched are in post #1.

That was Mills' only appearance on stream.

Dechaine was on stream in two other matches, and he was successful on 14 of 17 breaks in those matches, with 6 B&R's.

I wouldn't really try to draw any significant conclusions from this.
  
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08-29-2016, 09:41 AM

The best streamed match imo was the semi finals or karren vs earl. And that was the only match u missed lol
  
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08-29-2016, 12:14 PM

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Originally Posted by barrymuch90 View Post
The best streamed match imo was the semi finals or karren vs earl. And that was the only match u missed lol
Yeah, darn. Unavoidably, I had to be elsewhere for a couple hours.
  
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08-29-2016, 12:30 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Yeah, darn. Unavoidably, I had to be elsewhere for a couple hours.
That's it, buddy....gonna have to dock your pay.

I saw a lot of weak breaks this tourney.
Seems like some were using the cut break, which seems to work best with the template.


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08-29-2016, 05:29 PM

" Fargo Favorites -- The player with the higher Fargo Rating at the start of the match won 61% (11 of 18) of the matches. [Excludes two matches for which one of the player's ratings was unknown.]"

Just curious how many of these matches were from players that didn't have an established rating with a robustness of at least 200 games? If not, do you know the percent correct for only those matches?
  
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08-29-2016, 05:37 PM

Dennis #3 on Fargo Ratings loss out early. His 2nd loss was to John Morra.
  
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08-29-2016, 06:08 PM

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Originally Posted by Stew_Pidaso View Post
" Fargo Favorites -- The player with the higher Fargo Rating at the start of the match won 61% (11 of 18) of the matches. [Excludes two matches for which one of the player's ratings was unknown.]"

Just curious how many of these matches were from players that didn't have an established rating with a robustness of at least 200 games? If not, do you know the percent correct for only those matches?
3 of the 20 matches included in my stats involved a player without a robustness of at least 200. For 2 of the 3 -- Lamarche and Cicero -- I could find no rating, and I excluded their matches from my Fargo Favorites percentage. The other player is Clowery, who has a "preliminary" rating with a lower-than-200 robustness. But I included his match (which he won against a higher-rated player)

So my stat was 11 of 18. If you want to exclude the Clowery/D'Alfonso match, it would be 11 of 17.
  
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08-29-2016, 06:10 PM

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Dennis #3 on Fargo Ratings loss out early. His 2nd loss was to John Morra.
Sounds like you are talking about the China Open. This thread is about Turning Stone. [Same week; too many tournaments!]
  
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08-29-2016, 06:23 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
3 of the 20 matches included in my stats involved a player without a robustness of at least 200. For 2 of the 3 -- Lamarche and Cicero -- I could find no rating, and I excluded their matches from my Fargo Favorites percentage. The other player is Clowery, who has a "preliminary" rating with a lower-than-200 robustness. But I included his match (which he won against a higher-rated player)

So my stat was 11 of 18. If you want to exclude the Clowery/D'Alfonso match, it would be 11 of 17.
Jarrod Clowery is pleased he has any robustness at all....he was one of the victims in the
Boston Marathon bombing.
He went to the hospital with over 40 pieces of metal in his body.
.....so I was pleased as hell to see him in the Stone....and playing alright.

Jarrod's FargoRate won't be staying at 200 very long...high 600s or low 700s on its way.


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08-29-2016, 06:52 PM

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Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
Jarrod Clowery is pleased he has any robustness at all....he was one of the victims in the
Boston Marathon bombing.
He went to the hospital with over 40 pieces of metal in his body.
.....so I was pleased as hell to see him in the Stone....and playing alright.

Jarrod's FargoRate won't be staying at 200 very long...high 600s or low 700s on its way.
Yes, quite a story with Jarrod and the bombing. He was a real strong player 15-20 years ago. At some point he gave it up and did carpentry. He has been on the comeback trail now for a couple years and seems all-in again. And he is still not even 40 years old. His "preliminary" Fargo rating is 545, which is way below his actual skill level. That will be going up a lot in the future.

[The 200 number used in earlier posts referred to "robustness" (number of games in the system) rather than rating.]

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08-29-2016, 07:04 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Yes, quite a story with Jarrod and the bombing. He was a real strong player 20 years ago. Then he gave it up and did carpentry. He has been on the comeback trail now for a couple years and seems all-in again. And he is still not even 40 years old. His "preliminary" Fargo rating is 545, which is way below his actual skill level. That will be going up a lot in the future.

[The 200 number used in earlier posts referred to "robustness" (number of games in the system) rather than rating.]
Ah, I missed the robustness as opposed to rating...thanx as always.

Here's Jarrod ...middle of April, 2013....

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