Where does Chezka fit in with men and other world-leading women?
- Thread starter mikepage
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Good stuff, Mike. A couple of interesting observations/questions from the expanded chart...
1) As much hype there is regarding Chezka, her Fargo Rating still barely cracks the top 100 players. Which is still outstanding if you think about it. Correct me if I'm wrong, but she's by far the youngest player (man or woman) in the top 100.
2) I'm surprised Efren is still so high on the list (#26), above players such as Appleton, Chang, Ignacio, Souquet, Younger Ko, and Hohmann.
3) Where did Lining come from? I realize he just placed second in Chinook, but I haven't heard news of Antonio in years. How much has his rating shot up just due to showing in Chinook?
4) If Chezka does play against the men at the US Open, it would be interesting to compare her Fargo Rating before and after the tournament. If her rating remains the same (or actually increases after the tournament), then that would be data that would greatly support the validity of the Fargo Rating system.
5) Wu is simply a beast.
lover her...but she's also the flavour of the month
every woman on earth remains years behind approaching what allison fisher, karen, and kelly have done
every woman on earth remains years behind approaching what allison fisher, karen, and kelly have done
I think that's right; Fedor Gorst (Russia) is about a year younger than Chezka, and is now rated 750
He hasn't been playing that much, but when he does he seems to hold his own. At bigfoot challenge this year, he played 57 games against Appleton, Bustamante, and Jayson Shaw with a winning record of 30 to 27.
He's had a pretty high rating all along. 2015 we have Japan Open and World 10-ball. Before Chinook, he played at Tornado Open in Florida
One person playing in one tournament is just not much information. She could go deep or go a few and out. Now if Chezka, Siming Chen, Han Yu, Sha Sha Liu and a few others all played, that would be a chunk of information...
That he is...
Scott Frost has offered to play her in Phoenix where we have a room willing to put up some dough for a lengthy exhibition race. He is 10 points under her in Fargo. Not sure if that will come together but it would be fun to watch.
She's also new on the scene unlike those other washed up players you mentioned...
:grin: and you forgot Jeanette Lee !!!
There is one niggle about the Fargo system that only exists in edge cases like this one. (I think).
How does the system deal with skunks? 5-0, 7-0, etc...
In the case of the Chezka and the Chinook winds tournament, she won by a combined huge number vs. a teensy number. Most of her matches were donuts for her opponents.
A system like Fargo can't really assess how much better she was than her opponent. Her opponent could have been a 500, 600 or 700 and if she beat them 5-0 the system would predict she's at least a 650, 750 or 850. (Making up these numbers) But it couldn't really predict how much better she is than that. Except by using some context. Which I don't know if your model does or not.
What I mean by context is if someone is a 766 and they play a 500 speed player and beat them 4-0. Pure statistics might predict a rating of 686. (made up number) But the system won't punish people for winning 4-0 so it takes the context of the player and that result is just used as robustness for the 766. It doesn't change it one way or the other. Instead of applying the rating of 686 to her weighted average.
And then she plays someone else who is a 500 and happens to lose a game. That would predict a rating of 638. (Again, making up numbers). So that result would presumably be used to lower her rating. Then another 4-0 against someone who is rated 600 - again, uses context to count it as a 763 (now because it's been lowered).
So in the case of the chinook winds, she could play very strong and the full extent of her great play might not be reflected into her fargo rating accurately. With a net result that she might be underrated a bit.
I'm sure you have thought through this so I'm more curious how it is handled in the system rather than it being a criticism.
justaplayer
Banned
Think I'd bet on Roberts or Ortman over her.
The sample sizes are too small and the results in pool tournaments too random for any model to be reliable. If You are adding regional bar box events into your formula, your results will be useless.
The sample sizes are too small and the results in pool tournaments too random for any model to be reliable. If You are adding regional bar box events into your formula, your results will be useless.
That sounds like a great match to see! I hope while she's here people set up several matches with her against dudes.
I'm sorry I read your description and I don't understand it. I will say there is nothing special about skunks.
A player's rating will change after a match if the results differed from what was expected, and will change more if the results differed more than what was expected.
So, for instance if Chezka, a 766, plays a 566, she is supposed to win 80% of the games.
If Chezka wins a match 5 to 0, the system says they played 5 games, and chezka was supposed to win 4 of them. She actually won 5, so her rating goes up.
Note if they played a race to 9 and Chezka won 9 to 1, she also would have exceeded her expectation by one game. (supposed to win 8 out of 10).
Cool stuff Mike! I know you have already said that Fargo is not meant for this; but I'd love and can't wait for people to start using it for some real world stuff as match ups - such as using it as some kind of LINE when booking action. For me at least, that will be when it proves it's worth. Not exactly sure what the logistics will be to use it as such but I'm certain someone will figure it out.
Don't know how, but if we were able to eliminate the BS ( dumping and what not ) and we can start betting on matches just like they do in England ( and in general Europe ) then and only then will pool begin to be able to get on the same level as Snooker is in Europe!
And before some folks begin exploding lol, yes I know and I am not saying Fargo has anything to do with dumping nor think it can do anything about it specifically.
Mike, I figured I'd add this : as I said I know you have said it's not what this was made for but to the best of my knowledge the algorithms that you are using are very similar ( not exact obviously but VERY CLOSE ) to those use by casinos and Vegas that they apply to football and other action so it would not be a stretch by any means that your formulas could ( will ) ultimately be used for handicapping pool matches. With the amount of data collected you will be at the forefront of this if you so chose. Much like in pool, Fargo will mean different things to different folks. ( Pool can be social, competition, action, etc. and likewise your system inherently has that built into it. Whether you care to talk about it at this point or not, Fargo has the ability to completely unify and forever change the league systems both here in the US as well as abroad as well as all tournaments ( both amateur and pro ) and of the greatest interest to me : the action side of things. Anyway as I said cool stuff and wish you the best of luck!
Don't know how, but if we were able to eliminate the BS ( dumping and what not ) and we can start betting on matches just like they do in England ( and in general Europe ) then and only then will pool begin to be able to get on the same level as Snooker is in Europe!
And before some folks begin exploding lol, yes I know and I am not saying Fargo has anything to do with dumping nor think it can do anything about it specifically.
Mike, I figured I'd add this : as I said I know you have said it's not what this was made for but to the best of my knowledge the algorithms that you are using are very similar ( not exact obviously but VERY CLOSE ) to those use by casinos and Vegas that they apply to football and other action so it would not be a stretch by any means that your formulas could ( will ) ultimately be used for handicapping pool matches. With the amount of data collected you will be at the forefront of this if you so chose. Much like in pool, Fargo will mean different things to different folks. ( Pool can be social, competition, action, etc. and likewise your system inherently has that built into it. Whether you care to talk about it at this point or not, Fargo has the ability to completely unify and forever change the league systems both here in the US as well as abroad as well as all tournaments ( both amateur and pro ) and of the greatest interest to me : the action side of things. Anyway as I said cool stuff and wish you the best of luck!
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Okay, I think I understand how the system handles what I was asking. Because the system is logarithmic nobody is ever expected to beat someone exactly 5-0. Maybe 5-0.2 or something. You use round numbers for our sake.
In a race to 3 she is supposed to win 80% - which means 2.4-0.6.
If her game win % is 90% then it would be 2.7 - 0.3.
So if she wins 3-0 that's going to raise her rating.
If she wins 3-1 that's going to lower her rating.
She's also new on the scene unlike those other washed up players you mentioned...
I wouldn't lump Jeanette with Alison , Kelly and Karen
Jeanette is the most popular of them all and a great ambassador but her skill is way below those 3
:grin:
But no one cares because she is by far the hottest of them, and that in itself draws the crowd and rightly so!
Maybe to some, but out of those 3 I think Allison is the most attractive.
She's also new on the scene unlike those other washed up players you mentioned...
they're washed up but jeanete lee isn't? lmfao
neither lee nor any woman of her era , or what i refer to as the Mitch Lawrence era could touch the holy trinity
Jeanatte and Eva were the marketing darlings of their time but could not play world class pool and would have drowned in asia nevermind getting stomped by the british invasion
ga ya kim was poised to get there, she still might, but still a ways to go, some of the chinese gals at the moment and chezka are the next gen, I wish em the best and believe they should be competing alot more in mens events as most womens events are a joke
This graphic shows Ga Young Kim is in the mix at the top.
There are 20 women over 720 and 7 over 750. Ga Young is in the over 750 group.
