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Break Stats -- Accu-Stats 2016 "Make It Happen" 8-Ball Invitational, November 2016
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Break Stats -- Accu-Stats 2016 "Make It Happen" 8-Ball Invitational, November 2016 - 11-20-2016, 11:15 PM

Here are some stats from the Accu-Stats "Make It Happen" 8-Ball Invitational played November 17-20, 2016 at Sandcastle Billiards in Edison, NJ with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats.

This was a 6-player event, with 15 round-robin matches (races to 10) followed by a playoff match between the 2 players with the best records. The tie-breaker for getting into the finals for players with the same records in matches was the number of games won. The six players were: Darren Appleton, Corey Deuel, John Morra, Rodney Morris, Jayson Shaw, and Shane Van Boening.

The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with blue Simonis 860 cloth;
- Aramith Tournament balls with the measles cue ball;
- breaker racks using the Accu-Rack racking template;
- alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- 45-sec. shot clock (90 sec. after the break), with one automatic extension per player per rack;
- take the group you make more of on the break (table open if breaker made same number of each group, or fouled, or broke dry);
- ball in hand behind the line after a foul on the break;
- call shots, except making the 8-ball on the break counts as a win;
- foul on all balls;
- jump cues not allowed;
- lag for opening break.

The 16 matches were as follows (shown in the order in which they were played).

Thurs., Nov. 17
Appleton defeated Deuel 10-4
Van Boening d. Morris 10-8
Shaw d. Morra 10-0
Deuel d. Van Boening 10-9

Fri., Nov. 18
Morra d. Morris 10-7
Shaw d. Appleton 10-6
Van Boening d. Morra 10-8
Deuel d. Morris 10-8

Sat., Nov. 19
Morris d. Shaw 10-7
Morra d. Appleton 10-5
Shaw d. Deuel 10-5
Van Boening d. Appleton 10-7

Sun., Nov. 20
Deuel d. Morra 10-3
Appleton d. Morris 10-3
Van Boening d. Shaw 10-7
Shaw d. Van Boening 10-4 (playoff match)

Records in round-robin play (5 matches per player; excludes playoff match).
  • Van Boening -- 4-1 in matches [49-40 in games (winning percentage in games of 55%)]
  • Shaw -- 3-2 [44-31 (59%)]
  • Deuel -- 3-2 [39-40 (49%)]
  • Appleton -- 2-3 [38-37 (51%)]
  • Morra -- 2-3 [31-42 (42%)]
  • Morris -- 1-4 [36-47 (43%)]

Playoff match -- Shaw defeated Van Boening 10-4. So, including the playoff match, their records were both 4-2 in matches. In games, Shaw was 54-35 (61%) and Van Boening was 53-50 (51%).

Overall results for all 16 matches -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 73% of the time (182 of 251), won 55% of the games (139 of 251), and broke and ran 41% of the games (102 of 251).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 251 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 121 (48% of the 251 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 61 (24%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 14 (6%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 15 (6%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 37 (15%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 55% (139 of 251) of all games,
  • He won 66% (121 of 182) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 18% (3 of 17) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 29% (15 of 52) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 26% (18 of 69) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 102 break-and-run games represented 41% of all 251 games, 73% of the 139 games won by the breaker, and 56% of the 182 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 102 break-and-run games (including 8-balls on the break) consisted of 4 alternate-break 4-packs (1 each by Appleton, Deuel, Morra, and Shaw), 6 alternate-break 3-packs, 17 alternate-break 2-packs, and 34 singles.

8-balls on the break:
The 102 break-and-run games included 2 8-balls on the break (0.8% of the 251 breaks).
  
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11-20-2016, 11:16 PM

Miscellany from the data for the Accu-Stats 2016 "Make It Happen" 8-Ball Invitational:


The most balls made on a single break was 5, done just once, by Van Boening. He ran out that game from the break.

The average number of balls made on the break was 1.3 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.6.

78% (195 of 251) of the games ended in one inning 41% (102) won by the breaker (B&R) and 37% (93) won by the non-breaker. Forty-six games (18% of 251) ended in the second inning, and only 10 games (4% of 251) went beyond the second inning.

59% (147 of 251) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 56% (102 of 182)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 76% (13 of 17)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks 62% (32 of 52)

The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 68% of the time (170 of 251)
- Won the game in a later inning 7% of the time (18 of 251)
- Lost the game 25% of the time (63 of 251)

The loser won an average of 5.7 games in the 16 races to 10. Only one match went to hill/hill; one finished at 10-0.

The average elapsed time for the 16 races to 10 was 87 minutes. The average minutes per game was 5.5. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

The match that was longest in elapsed time (112 min.) was Van Boening d. Appleton 10-7. The match highest in average minutes per game (7.4 min./game) was Morra d. Appleton 10-5.

The match that was shortest in elapsed time (50 min.) was Shaw d. Morra 10-0. The match lowest in average minutes per game (4.4 min./game) was Morris d. Shaw 10-7.

Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 15 games, other fouls 1 for every 16 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.8 games.

Twenty-one of the games (8.4%) involved one or more safeties.
  
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11-20-2016, 11:17 PM

Here are some break stats for each player in the Accu-Stats 2016 "Make It Happen" 8-Ball Invitational.

This includes all 16 matches in the event, i.e., 6 matches for the 2 finalists (Shaw and Van Boening) and 5 matches for each of the other 4 players.


Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

  • Shaw -- 75% (33 of 44)
    Van Boening -- 82% (42 of 51)
    Deuel -- 85% (33 of 39)
    Appleton -- 66% (25 of 38)
    Morra -- 65% (24 of 37)
    Morris -- 60% (25 of 42)

    Total -- 73% (182 of 251)

Breaker won the game:

  • Shaw -- 64% (28 of 44)
    Van Boening -- 57% (29 of 51)
    Deuel -- 56% (22 of 39)
    Appleton -- 55% (21 of 38)
    Morra -- 49% (18 of 37)
    Morris -- 50% (21 of 42)

    Total -- 55% (139 of 251)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:

  • Shaw -- 48% (21 of 44)
    Van Boening -- 39% (20 of 51)
    Deuel -- 46% (18 of 39)
    Appleton -- 42% (16 of 38)
    Morra -- 43% (16 of 37)
    Morris -- 26% (11 of 42)

    Total -- 41% (102 of 251)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:

  • Shaw -- 64% (21 of 33)
    Van Boening -- 48% (20 of 42)
    Deuel -- 55% (18 of 33)
    Appleton -- 64% (16 of 25)
    Morra -- 67% (16 of 24)
    Morris -- 44% (11 of 25)

    Total -- 56% (102 of 182)
  
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11-21-2016, 07:16 AM

AtLarge,

Thanks again for continuing to provide this awesome service to the pool community. Factual data is much more interesting than anecdotes, baseless conjecture, and hearsay so prevalent on the Internet. FYI, as usual, I've added a summary of the data on the break stats resource page.

Thanks again,
Dave
  
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11-21-2016, 08:39 AM

I'm not a fan of 'take what you make'....I feel the elite should lean to pure skill.
....rather than looking for ways to level the field.

But damn!....the field got out a lot anyways...
....Shaw...64% on successful breaks....the field...56% on successful breaks.
...great shooting on a nine-footer.

I see Shane made 5 balls on the break...if he had made 5 of the same group....
...he would probably have been an under-dog to continue...
...the better break gives you less choices for your first shot.
The top of the food chain should favor skill over luck.

Thanx, as always, AtLarge


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11-21-2016, 12:59 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
I'm not a fan of 'take what you make'....
I think that all my prior 8-Ball stats threads have been for events where the table was open after the break. So I was particularly interested in seeing how stats from this event, using "take what you make more of" would compare with those from other events.

Perhaps the two most similar prior events (in terms of the conditions) for which I tracked a reasonable number of games were the CSI Invitational 8-Ball Championship of July, 2014 and the Accu-Stats MIH 8-Ball Invitational of Nov., 2014. [For that prior A-S event, my data are for the final 2 days rather than all 4 days.]

So here are some comparisons -- open table after the break in the first 2 events, and take what you make more of on the break in the third event:

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 71% (154 of 218)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 73% (85 of 117)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 73% (182 of 251)

Breaker won the game:

  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 64% (139 of 218)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 61% (71 of 117)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 55% (139 of 251)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:

  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 54% (118 of 218)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 50% (59 of 117)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 41% (102 of 251)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:

  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 77% (118 of 154)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 69% (59 of 85)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 56% (102 of 182)

So the rate of successful breaks was quite similar in all 3 events. But, as expected, not having an open table after the break reduced the run-outs from the break and the breaker's win percentage.
  
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11-21-2016, 01:02 PM

It shows how good they are that "take what you make" had as small an impact as it did.
  
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11-21-2016, 01:02 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
,,, I see Shane made 5 balls on the break...if he had made 5 of the same group....
...he would probably have been an under-dog to continue...
...the better break gives you less choices for your first shot.
The top of the food chain should favor skill over luck.

Thanx, as always, AtLarge
Yes, the commentators mentioned that effect quite a few times. They felt the best breaking result was to make one of each group, thereby giving the breaker an open table and plenty of balls to work with.
  
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11-21-2016, 01:08 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by skip100 View Post
It shows how good they are that "take what you make" had as small an impact as it did.
Look at the BNR rate on successful breaks. I say the difference is very considerable.

BNR 13% lower this yr than the previous MIH event. 21% lower than the CSI event.
  
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11-21-2016, 01:29 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Yes, the commentators mentioned that effect quite a few times. They felt the best breaking result was to make one of each group, thereby giving the breaker an open table and plenty of balls to work with.
I saw Ronnie Wiseman make 5 balls on the break....all low balls.
...he didn't even have a good chance of hitting the other two...much less make one.
He ran out using high balls.

Good breaks should not lessen your chances of getting out.


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11-21-2016, 02:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by gxman View Post
Look at the BNR rate on successful breaks. I say the difference is very considerable.

BNR 13% lower this yr than the previous MIH event. 21% lower than the CSI event.
Agreed that it's still considerable.
  
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11-21-2016, 03:38 PM

I can remember seeing only 1 shot clock violation, Shane, were there more?
  
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11-21-2016, 03:43 PM

At Large

Thanks
You are the stat man
  
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11-21-2016, 05:02 PM

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Originally Posted by Poolhall60561 View Post
I can remember seeing only 1 shot clock violation, Shane, were there more?
That's the only one I saw. It was in his Friday match with John Morra.
  
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11-21-2016, 05:27 PM

Largest number of games by which the match winner ever trailed:
8 matches -- 0 games
4 matches -- 1 game
2 matches -- 2 games
1 match -- 3 games (at 5-8 in Deuel d. Van Boening)
1 match -- 4 games (at 2-6 in Morris d. Shaw)


Largest number of games won consecutively by one player in each match:
1 match -- 10 games
1 match -- 7 games
4 matches -- 6 games
2 matches -- 5 games
7 matches -- 4 games
1 match -- 2 games
  
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