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Break Stats -- Derby City 9-Foot 9-Ball, Jan. 2017
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Break Stats -- Derby City 9-Foot 9-Ball, Jan. 2017 - 01-28-2017, 09:36 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2017 Derby City Classic 9-Ball event played January 25-28, 2017 at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with blue Simonis 860 cloth;
- Cyclop TV balls with the red-spot cue ball;
- Diamond wooden rack;
- rack your own and winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- jump cues not allowed;
- cue-ball fouls only;
- all slop counts;
- 40-second shot clock (one automatic extension per player per rack

The 10 streamed matches (135 games) were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream. No TPA was given for 3 of these 10 matches.

Wed. Jan 25
  • Justin Bergman (.922) defeated Alex Pagulayan (.912) 9-7

Thurs. Jan 26
  • Brandon Shuff d. Can Salim 9-6
    Dennis Hatch d. Shane McMinn 9-3

Fri., Jan. 27
  • Shane Van Boening (.938) d. Lee Vann Corteza (.886) 9-3
    Skyler Woodward (.938) d. Jayson Shaw (.833) 9-3
    Chris Melling (.845) d. Ruslan Chinakhov (.840) 9-7

Sat., Jan. 2830
  • Efren Reyes (.894) d. Damianos Giallourakis (.831) 9-8
    Van Boening d. Fedor Gorst 9-2
    Van Boening (.862) d. Ramon Mistica (.643) 9-3 (Semifinal)
    Dennis Orcollo (.877) d. Van Boening (.689) 9-3 (Finals)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 62% of the time (84 of 135), won 55% of the games (74 of 135), and broke and ran 21% of the games (29 of 135).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 135 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 53 (39% of the 135 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 31 (23%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 6 (4%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 19 (14%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 24 (18%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 55% (74 of 135) of all games,
  • He won 63% (53 of 84) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 25% (2 of 8) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 44% (19 of 43) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 41% (21 of 51) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 29 break-and-run games represented 21% of all 135 games, 39% of the 74 games won by the breaker, and 35% of the 84 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 29 break-and-run games consisted of 1 four-pack (by Van Boening), 4 two-packs and 17 singles. So only Van Boening broke and ran more than 2 games in a row in the streamed matches.

9-Balls on the break -- The 29 break-and-run games included 1 9-ball on the break (0.7% of all breaks).
  
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01-28-2017, 09:36 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2017 DCC 9-Ball event:
[This relates only to the 10 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

The most balls made on a single break was 3, done 7 times (including twice on fouled breaks). The breaker lost 5 of those 7 games.

The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4.

50% (68 of 135) of the games ended in one inning 21% (29) won by the breaker (B&R) and 29% (39) won by the non-breaker. Ten percent (14 of 135) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

35% (47 of 135) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 35% (29 of 84)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 75% (6 of 8)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks 28% (12 of 43)

The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 54% of the time (72 of 134)
- Won the game in a later inning 15% of the time (20 of 134)
- Lost the game 31% of the time (42 of 134)
[Note -- total games used here are 134 rather than 135 to eliminate the one game in which no ball was made after the break.]

The loser won an average of 4.5 games in these races to 9. Just one streamed match went to hill/hill; six finished at 9-3 or 9-2.

The average elapsed time for these 10 races to 9 was 70 minutes, averaging 5.2 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

The match that was longest in elapsed time, at 115 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 6.8, was Reyes d. Giallourakis 9-8.

The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at 42 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 3.5, was Woodward d. Shaw 9-3.

Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 17 games, other fouls 1 for every 6 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.8 games.

About 37% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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01-29-2017, 01:30 PM

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's for the 7 streamed matches for which TPA's were given:

for the 7 match winners -- .897 (last year .921 for 9 match winners)

for the 7 match losers -- .805 (last year .831 for 9)

Total (all 14 TPA's) -- .851 (last year .876 for 18)

[Note -- these mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPA's calculated for each of the groups.]
  
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01-29-2017, 01:37 PM

So did Dennis run a 6 pack as Billy said he witness?
  
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01-29-2017, 01:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by gxman View Post
So did Dennis run a 6 pack as Billy said he witness?
The only streamed match in the 9-Ball event involving Dennis was the finals. The only B&R's in that match were Orcollo's 2-pack in Games 8 and 9.

Maybe you are talking about something else? Billy who?
  
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01-29-2017, 02:00 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
The only streamed match in the 9-Ball event involving Dennis was the finals. The only B&R's in that match were Orcollo's 2-pack in Games 8 and 9.

Maybe you are talking about something else? Billy who?
Billy Incard or Danny D during the finals said he saw Dennis run a 6pack. Mark Wilson said it wasnt. They went back and forth about it for a minute.
  
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01-29-2017, 02:04 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by gxman View Post
Billy Incard or Danny D during the finals said he saw Dennis run a 6pack. Mark Wilson said it wasnt. They went back and forth about it for a minute.
Ah. If it happened, it wasn't in one of the Accu-Stats streamed matches.
  
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01-29-2017, 02:07 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hustlin-Felice View Post
Check it out ...
Did you intend to post this in some other thread?

Edit -- now I see you are sticking it in lots of threads. Not really cool to do.

2nd Edit -- now I see that H-F's post in this thread, and probably others, has been deleted.

Last edited by AtLarge; 01-29-2017 at 08:35 PM.
  
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01-29-2017, 04:10 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 62% of the time (84 of 135), won 55% of the games (74 of 135), and broke and ran 21% of the games (29 of 135).
As always, thank you again for continuing to do this.

As always, I'll continue to add partial quotes and tabulated data summaries on the break stats resource page so we can continue to see how the stats vary among the tournaments and through the years.

Thanks again for your hard and interesting work,
Dave
  
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