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Break Stats -- World Pool Series, RYO Rack Classic Championship 8-Ball, July 2017
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Break Stats -- World Pool Series, RYO Rack Classic Championship 8-Ball, July 2017 - 07-15-2017, 09:15 PM

Here are some 8-Ball stats from the third event of Darren Appleton's new World Pool Series -- the RYO Rack Classic Championship. It was played July 12-15 at Steinway Billiards in Queens, New York with free live streaming by High Rock Productions. The winner was Skyler Woodward.

This was a 61-player event (62 entered; 1 forfeited), with double elimination down to the final 16 players (races to 11 on the winners' side and 9 on the losers' side, with a shootout at hill/hill) and then single elimination (2 out of 3 races to 6, win by 2 in each race, with a tiebreaker or shootout at hill/hill). The stats are for the 11 streamed matches, which represented 10.7% of the total of 103 matches played in the event. [Note -- these 11 matches were all from the main event, none from the second-chance event.]

The conditions for this event included:
- Rasson Victory 9-foot table with 4" corner pockets and 4" side pockets;
- Simonis 860 Tournament Blue cloth;
- Aramith Tournament balls with the measles cue ball;
- breaker racks in some matches, the referee in others -- using the RYO triangle rack;
- break from outside a 2-diamonds-wide central box behind the head string (i.e., break from within one diamond of either side rail);
- break shot must contact the head ball first;
- alternate breaks;
- take the group you make more of on the break (table open if breaker made same number of each group, or fouled, or broke dry);
- ball in hand behind the line after a foul on the break;
- making the 8-ball on the break is not a game win;
- mixed-group combinations not allowed with an open table;
- call shots;
- foul on all balls, and 3-foul rule in effect;
- jump cues allowed, but only 3 times per player per match (once per set in single-elimination matches) and only after the opponent's shot;
- 45-second shot clock (one extension per player per game) in some matches; and
- lag for opening break.

The 11 matches (216 games) were as follows (shown in the order in which they were played).

Wednesday, July 12, 2017
  • Mario He defeated Manny Perez 11-7 (stats exclude first 11 games of this match because of streaming problems)
    Billy Thorpe d. Alan Rolon 11-6
    Mark Gray d. Dennis Hatch 11-3

Thursday, July 13
  • Alex Kazakis d. Johnny Archer 9-4
    Chris Melling d. Lee Vann Corteza 9-7
    Klenti Kai d. Imran Majid 11-6
    Melling d. Mika Immonen 9-3

Friday, July 14
  • Skyler Woodward d. Hatch 7-6, 6-7, 6-3 (Round of 16) [stats exclude first 8 games because of streaming problems]
    Kai d. He 7-6, 6-1 (Quarterfinal)

Saturday, July 15
  • Woodward d. Kai 6-7, 7-5, 7-5 (Semifinal)
    Woodward d. Darren Appleton 6-3, 6-2 (Finals) [stats exclude 1 game because of streaming problems]

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 47% of the time (92 of 196), won 54% of the games (105 of 196), and broke and ran 23% of the games (46 of 196).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 196 games tracked.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 63 (32% of the 196 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 29 (15%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 4 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 8 (4%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 38 (19%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 54 (28%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 54% (105 of 196) of all games,
  • He won 68% (63 of 92) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 33% (4 of 12) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 41% (38 of 92) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 40% (42 of 104) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 46 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 196 games, 44% of the 105 games won by the breaker, and 50% of the 92 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 46 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 3-pack (by Gray), 9 alternate-break 2-packs, and 25 singles. No one in these 11 streamed matches broke and ran more than 3 games in a row on his own break.

8-balls on the break:
The 8-ball was never made on the break (it would not have counted as a win).
  
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07-15-2017, 09:15 PM

Miscellany from the 8-Ball data for the 2017 RYO Rack Classic Championship -- World Pool Series event #3
[This relates only to the 11 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once (by Gray, who won that game by B&R).

The average number of balls made on the break was 0.6 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.3.

57% (112 of 196) of the games ended in one inning 23% (46) won by the breaker (B&R) and 34% (66) won by the non-breaker. Twenty-eight percent of the games (54 of 196) ended in the second inning of either the breaker or non-breaker, and 15% (30 of 196) went beyond the second inning.

47% (93 of 196) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 50% (46 of 92)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 42% (5 of 12)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks 46% (42 of 92)

The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 52% of the time (102 of 196)
- Won the game in a later inning 12% of the time (23 of 196)
- Lost the game 36% of the time (71 of 196)

The average minutes per game for all 11 matches (197 games) was 7.4. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag (or the start of the streaming for two of the matches) until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

The match that was highest in average minutes per game (10.7 min./game) was Kazakis d. Archer 9-4.

The match that was lowest in average minutes per game (5.6 min./game) was Woodward d. Appleton 6-3 and 6-2 in the Finals.

Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 16 games, other fouls 1 for every 13 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.3 games.

About 17% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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07-16-2017, 04:04 PM

Here's an extension of the stats comparisons I posted 3 months ago and 6 months ago after the first two World Pool Series events. The most significant change in the first WPS event was breaking outside a 2-diamonds-wide central box. This second WPS event narrowed the allowable breaking area even more, to about a half-diamond width off of either side rail, and used a table with even tighter pockets for most of the streamed matches. For the third event, the allowable breaking area was widened to what it was for the first event, and the table was at least as tight as in the second event.

So, the 6 events compared here are:

• CSI Invitational 8-Ball Championship, July 2014 -- template rack, break from anywhere behind the line, table open after the break
• Accu-Stats MIH 8-Ball Invitational, Nov.2014 (final 2 days only) -- template rack, break from anywhere behind the line, table open after the break
• Accu-stats MIH 8-Ball Invitational, Nov. 2016 -- template rack, break from anywhere behind the line, take what you make more of
• World Pool Series #1, Molinary Players' Championship, Jan. 2017 -- triangle rack, break from outside a 2-diamonds-wide central box, take what you make more of
• World Pool Series #2, Aramith Masters Championship, April 2017 -- triangle rack, break from outside a 3-diamonds-wide central box, take what you make more of
• World Pool Series #3, RYO Rack Classic Championship, July 2017 -- triangle rack, break from outside a 2-diamonds-wide central box, take what you make more of

The first 3 events used Diamond tables with standard pro-cut 4" pockets. WPS event #1 used a Brunswick Gold Crown with 4" corners. But I doubt that the difficulty factor for this Brunswick was any higher than for the Diamonds (shallower shelf depth on the Brunswick, e.g.). Most of the streamed matches for WPS event #2 used a Rasson table with corner pockets just a bit over 4". WPS event #3 used a Rasson table with 4" corner pockets and 4" side pockets. The WPS events used a regular triangle instead of a breaking template, and that may have had an effect on the stats. The WPS events also had several other differences in the rules/conditions, but I doubt that they caused any significant difference in the stats. The field strength for the streamed matches was high for all 6 events.

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 71% (154 of 218)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 73% (85 of 117)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 73% (182 of 251)
    2017 WPS #1 -- 53% (155 of 293)
    2017 WPS #2 -- 45% (96 of 215)
    2017 WPS #3 -- 47% (92 of 196)

Breaker won the game:
  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 64% (139 of 218)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 61% (71 of 117)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 55% (139 of 251)
    2017 WPS #1 -- 48% (141 of 293)
    2017 WPS #2 -- 46% (99 of 215)
    2017 WPS #3 -- 54% (105 of 196)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 54% (118 of 218)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 50% (59 of 117)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 41% (102 of 251)
    2017 WPS #1 -- 29% (85 of 293)
    2017 WPS #2 -- 18% (38 of 215)
    2017 WPS #3 -- 23% (46 of 196)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 77% (118 of 154)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 69% (59 of 85)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 56% (102 of 182)
    2017 WPS #1 -- 55% (85 of 155)
    2017 WPS #2 -- 40% (38 of 96)
    2017 WPS #3 -- 50% (46 of 92)

Runouts by the player at the table following the break:
  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 74% (162 of 218)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 68% (80 of 117)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 59% (147 of 251)
    2017 WPS #1 -- 54% (159 of 293)
    2017 WPS #2 -- 42% (91 of 215)
    2017 WPS #3 -- 47% (93 of 196)

Games won by the player at the table following the break:
  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 78% (169 of 218)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 76% (89 of 117)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 69% (172 of 251)
    2017 WPS #1 -- 66% (193 of 293)
    2017 WPS #2 -- 60% (128 of 215)
    2017 WPS #3 -- 64% (125 of 196)

Games ending in one inning (by B&R or on non-breaker's first visit):
  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 88% (192 of 218)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 85% (99 of 117)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 78% (195 of 251)
    2017 WPS #1 -- 69% (201 of 293)
    2017 WPS #2 -- 57% (122 of 215)
    2017 WPS #3 -- 57% (112 of 196)

Games involving safeties:
  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 4% (8 of 218)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 4% (5 of 117)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 8% (21 of 251)
    2017 WPS #1 -- 12% (36 of 293)
    2017 WPS #2 -- 19% (41 of 215)
    2017 WPS #3 -- 17% (33 of 196)

Average number of balls made on all breaks and on successful breaks:
  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 1.3, 1.6
    2014 A-S MIH -- 1.3, 1.7
    2016 A-S MIH -- 1.3, 1.6
    2017 WPS #1 -- 0.8, 1.4
    2017 WPS #2 -- 0.6, 1.3
    2017 WPS #3 -- 0.6, 1.3

Average number of minutes per game:
  • 2014 CSI Invit. -- 6.6 for 218 games (no shot clock)
    2014 A-S MIH -- 5.4 for 117 games (45-sec. shot clock)
    2016 A-S MIH -- 5.5 for 251 games (45-sec. shot clock)
    2017 WPS #1 -- 7.0 for 293 games (no shot clock)
    2017 WPS #2 -- 7.4 for 215 games (30-sec shot clock in the majority of the matches)
    2017 WPS #3 -- 7.4 for 197 games (45-sec. shot clock in most matches)


So, moving from the first two events to the third, we saw the effect of not having an open table after the break -- a reduction in the rate of run-outs from the break and in the breaker's win percentage. Then moving from the third event to the WPS events, we have seen the that breaking outside a central box and using a regular triangle instead of a breaking template has had a further effect in making the game more difficult -- lower success rates on the break, reductions in B&R's and breaker wins, and more player interaction.

So Darren Appleton's tweaks to the WPA rules have made the game more difficult for top pros. He has made a few changes with each event. Will we see more in future events?

Last edited by AtLarge; 09-04-2017 at 12:13 PM.
  
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07-17-2017, 11:49 AM

Streamed games won with stripes:

WPS #1 -- 46% (133 of 290)
WPS #2 -- 57% (123 of 215)
WPS #3 -- 50% (98 of 196)

Total -- 50% (354 of 701)
  
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07-17-2017, 01:15 PM

Great work atlarge,
didnt catch any of the streaming, every time I checked in here there were little issues
on steaming, times and such and not being into FB didnt put much effort into finding a
way to catch the games.
Looking at the past and present stats shows the degree in difficulty improving,
may take a couple of seasons to be realized and appreciated.
I missed the no open table after the break, how does that work?
Are you getting a feel of what the players think about this set-up, format?
It's fun to look at your info and picture how it all went down, didnt see any
attendance, gate, purse and payout info.
  
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07-17-2017, 01:32 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Streamed games won with stripes:

WPS #1 -- 46% (133 of 290)
WPS #2 -- 57% (123 of 215)
WPS #3 -- 50% (98 of 196)

Total -- 50% (354 of 701)
It's almost like statistical theory is a thing
  
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07-17-2017, 04:16 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan_B View Post
... I missed the no open table after the break, how does that work? ...
It's "take what you make." If the breaker makes more stripes than solids on the break, he must play stripes (and vice versa). If he makes the same number of each, the table is open. If he breaks dry or fouls on the break, the table is open for his opponent.
  
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07-17-2017, 05:26 PM

oooh, OK, pretty much the norm with that one exception,
I was trying to think of something more dastardly, my bad, thanks
  
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07-17-2017, 07:37 PM

Games ending in one inning (by B&R or on non-breaker's first visit):
2014 CSI Invit. -- 88% (192 of 218)
2014 A-S MIH -- 85% (99 of 117)
2016 A-S MIH -- 78% (195 of 251)
2017 WPS #1 -- 69% (201 of 293)
2017 WPS #2 -- 57% (122 of 215)
2017 WPS #3 -- 57% (112 of 196)

Is this in line with 9/10b #s, please?

Look at those top 3 ~500:570. Wow.


Two thirds from the top,
Another third for roads and cops.
Don't kid yourself that it's ever gonna stop


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07-17-2017, 11:25 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Black-Balled View Post
Games ending in one inning (by B&R or on non-breaker's first visit):
2014 CSI Invit. -- 88% (192 of 218)
2014 A-S MIH -- 85% (99 of 117)
2016 A-S MIH -- 78% (195 of 251)
2017 WPS #1 -- 69% (201 of 293)
2017 WPS #2 -- 57% (122 of 215)
2017 WPS #3 -- 57% (112 of 196)

Is this in line with 9/10b #s, please?

Look at those top 3 ~500:570. Wow.
For 9-Ball and 10-Ball events for top pros on 9-foot tables, the percentage of games ending in one inning varies from the high 30's to the mid 50's.

[Based on streamed matches I have tracked in recent years.]
  
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07-18-2017, 08:28 AM

So for the three WPS events in total the breaker wins very close to 50%. Successful breaks are also very close to 50%.


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07-18-2017, 09:31 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
For 9-Ball and 10-Ball events for top pros on 9-foot tables, the percentage of games ending in one inning varies from the high 30's to the mid 50's.

[Based on streamed matches I have tracked in recent years.]
So data supports 8b being easier than 9/10b, no?


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07-18-2017, 12:19 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Black-Balled View Post
So data supports 8b being easier than 9/10b, no?
On paper it is, and most of the better players I know seem to agree on that.

But have you ever tried beating the 8 ball ghost? I gave it a try recently after having an unusually good session vs. the 9b ghost (won a race to 7, then did one more runout for good measure).

Multiple tries, on multiple days, the 8b ghost creamed me. That seems backwards.
You have a basement table, right? Try it sometime and tell me I'm nuts.
  
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07-18-2017, 02:48 PM

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Originally Posted by CreeDo View Post
On paper it is, and most of the better players I know seem to agree on that.

But have you ever tried beating the 8 ball ghost? I gave it a try recently after having an unusually good session vs. the 9b ghost (won a race to 7, then did one more runout for good measure).

Multiple tries, on multiple days, the 8b ghost creamed me. That seems backwards.
You have a basement table, right? Try it sometime and tell me I'm nuts.
BIH and open after the break? What kind of table and size pockets?

Last edited by gxman; 07-18-2017 at 02:50 PM.
  
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