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View Full Version : What do you do when you feel like you HAVE to take a low percentage shot?


Impact Blue
05-04-2009, 12:54 PM
Sometimes I get this urge to shoot in rotation games, usually a combo or carom, attacking full speed to try and set the momentum of a set. I would say with honesty that it's usually a higher percentage out, but it's not 100%. And maybe it's not the smartest thing to do, especially when there is a possibility of a deadlock safe.

What are your guys' thoughts. I've really tried to adopt the whole "don't bother shooting if you think you're going to miss," philosophy, but these are misses that could be avoided. But if they're cinched, the confidence is always huge.

All opinions welcomed. Thanks.

Jude Rosenstock
05-04-2009, 01:13 PM
Sometimes I get this urge to shoot in rotation games, usually a combo or carom, attacking full speed to try and set the momentum of a set. I would say with honesty that it's usually a higher percentage out, but it's not 100%. And maybe it's not the smartest thing to do, especially when there is a possibility of a deadlock safe.

What are your guys' thoughts. I've really tried to adopt the whole "don't bother shooting if you think you're going to miss," philosophy, but these are misses that could be avoided. But if they're cinched, the confidence is always huge.

All opinions welcomed. Thanks.

There's something to be said about being aggressive. I think if you're going to be successful at this game, you should WANT to shoot, not duck. However, I also think it's important to properly weigh that out. When I have a huge lead, I find the healthiest attitude to have is to wonder if I'll ever get another opportunity again. I could be up 8-0 and the thought going through my head is, "Boy, I better not mess up next time. I don't want this guy putting a run together."

If you ignore percentage-play, you're going to eventually pay for it. Perhaps you allow a window for someone to mount a comeback against you or your comeback percentage diminishes. There are times when you can get away with the low percentage or the situation allows you to justify letting the balls sail but you have to appreciate the fact that these shots are not textbook.

rossaroni
05-04-2009, 01:22 PM
Low percentage shot? I usually miss it a high percentage of the time! I think it is good for you to want to shoot. I think it was Grady(maybe it was Billy) who said if you have a hard shot and a fairly hard safe, shot the shot.

the420trooper
05-04-2009, 01:43 PM
Low percentage shot? I usually miss it a high percentage of the time! I think it is good for you to want to shoot. I think it was Grady(maybe it was Billy) who said if you have a hard shot and a fairly hard safe, shot the shot.

And Danny DiLiberto said that there's no reason to sell out the game on a "phony safe". If you're in a spot where you have a super tough safe and no shot, sometimes it's better to blast the balls, or ride the nine.

Aggression is often well paid in rotation games...

Ponytail
05-04-2009, 02:18 PM
From what you describe above, low percentage of making the ball, but high percentage of getting a lock up safe, I will ALWAYS play the safe.
It's about controlling the game. You're dictating what will go on, not them, and not leaving it to chance.

Strong safety play IS good play. If you nail your safe, then you nailed your shot.

Conversely, if the percentages are close to even on the shot/safe, then always, always go for the shot. The pay off is potentially better. If you miss the shot, you at least went for it. If you miss the safe, you didn't go for it, and they still have a shot.

my $.02

Cameron Smith
05-04-2009, 03:19 PM
I think it has a lot to do with player's obsession with run outs and high runs. When I watch some people play, it would seem as though some rather lose the game than not run out. You need to do what you gotta do to win, not all games are won pretty.

Drew
05-04-2009, 03:25 PM
Fire that b1tch straight into the rail and hope to god the other guy messes up somewhere.

TX Poolnut
05-04-2009, 03:45 PM
I do like I do when I play 1-Pocket.

Look for a really good shot.

When I've found it, I look for a better one.

CocoboloCowboy
05-04-2009, 04:08 PM
Shoot the best safety I can!

BVal
05-04-2009, 04:10 PM
Shoot the best safety I can!
What if no matter what you do it is low percentage?

BVal

CocoboloCowboy
05-04-2009, 04:19 PM
What if no matter what you do it is low percentage?

BVal


Well as it has been over a year since you saw me play, maybe like 16 months or more, & I could have learn a few tricks. :D

But the last time I was at Kolby's on a Sunday I took SECOND, and the only one who beat me was the LEGEND "SHORTS". I almost force him to a second set as he was in the hot seat. :D

That ain't bad because I think when I was collecting my SECOND PLACE money BVal was long gone home.:wink:

BVal
05-04-2009, 04:28 PM
Well as it has been over a year since you saw me play, maybe like 16 months or more, & I could have learn a few tricks. :D

But the last time I was at Kolby's on a Sunday I took SECOND, and the only one who beat me was the LEGEND "SHORTS". I almost force him to a second set as he was in the hot seat. :D

That ain't bad because I think when I was collecting my SECOND PLACE money BVal was long gone home.:wink:
I have never actually seen you play EVER! The only time I actually ever met you was at the Desert Dust Off and even then you failed to introduce yourself. It wasn't until days later that I actually knew I met you. I have been waiting to see you at the same tourney I have been at for years now CooCoo. Hell you even said you beat me once when in fact we have never actually met. I think you really need to see a doctor and get your memory checked. Seriously.

I have talked to people that have seen you play recently and unless you are "laying down" BIG TIME, you haven't learned any tricks. Your game doesn't scare me. What scares me is that you probably drive around some of the same parts of the city as me.

BVal

CocoboloCowboy
05-04-2009, 04:49 PM
I have never actually seen you play EVER! The only time I actually ever met you was at the Desert Dust Off and even then you failed to introduce yourself. It wasn't until days later that I actually knew I met you. I have been waiting to see you at the same tourney I have been at for years now CooCoo. Hell you even said you beat me once when in fact we have never actually met. I think you really need to see a doctor and get your memory checked. Seriously.

I have talked to people that have seen you play recently and unless you are "laying down" BIG TIME, you haven't learned any tricks. Your game doesn't scare me. What scares me is that you probably drive around some of the same parts of the city as me.

BVal


Well I am out of action 90-120 days with a knee thing, but I serious doubt if I will ever make it to Kolby's in Tempe again, as Tracy is not TD there no more, and I liked the way he ran the Sunday Events.

Don't let my driving scare you as I drove over the road 18 wheelers before retiring, and averaged over 12,000 mile/month, accident, and ticket free. So I know how to drive!

I hear there may soon be a NEW Room on Bell Road West of I-17 that will be ALL Diamonds, that is close to me. Maybe they will do as I heard 3-4 night a weeks tournaments. Mostly catering to the 8's and under.

I honestly hate driving now a day, and especially at night with all the DRUNKS!

BVal
05-04-2009, 06:32 PM
Well I am out of action 90-120 days with a knee thing, but I serious doubt if I will ever make it to Kolby's in Tempe again, as Tracy is not TD there no more, and I liked the way he ran the Sunday Events.

Don't let my driving scare you as I drove over the road 18 wheelers before retiring, and averaged over 12,000 mile/month, accident, and ticket free. So I know how to drive!

I hear there may soon be a NEW Room on Bell Road West of I-17 that will be ALL Diamonds, that is close to me. Maybe they will do as I heard 3-4 night a weeks tournaments. Mostly catering to the 8's and under.

I honestly hate driving now a day, and especially at night with all the DRUNKS!
90-120 days? You have been out of action for 50+ years. LOL.

The new TD runs the Sunday tourneys just fine. It's not rocket Science.

To the OP - When I am faced with a low percentage shot I look for a safe. If the safe is 70% or worse, I take the shot.

BVal

akaTrigger
05-04-2009, 07:21 PM
What do you do when you feel like you HAVE to take a low percentage shot?

All opinions welcomed. Thanks.

Stay down and follow through with all my muster.

JXMIKE
05-04-2009, 07:34 PM
When the shot is as hard as the safe then take the shot, you can sell out on a safety and lose control of the table just as easily.

BVal
05-04-2009, 08:44 PM
Stay down and follow through with all my muster.

I agree. You can't forget to keep your head down.

BVal

JasonCrugar
05-04-2009, 08:50 PM
I have never actually seen you play EVER! The only time I actually ever met you was at the Desert Dust Off and even then you failed to introduce yourself. It wasn't until days later that I actually knew I met you. I have been waiting to see you at the same tourney I have been at for years now CooCoo. Hell you even said you beat me once when in fact we have never actually met. I think you really need to see a doctor and get your memory checked. Seriously.

I have talked to people that have seen you play recently and unless you are "laying down" BIG TIME, you haven't learned any tricks. Your game doesn't scare me. What scares me is that you probably drive around some of the same parts of the city as me.

BVal
i knew you guys couldnt ignore each other for long!!!!! you guys should have an arguing contest...wait that started a ways back lol

djpstacked03
05-04-2009, 08:51 PM
I find that a good defensive game = a strong offensive game with ball in hand. You have to really weigh the shot out. What is more probable the safety or the aggresive shot. If I make the aggresive shot im a hero and if I dont he or she is out. I rather the latter. He who laughs last laughs the longest.

JasonCrugar
05-04-2009, 08:57 PM
When the shot is as hard as the safe then take the shot, you can sell out on a safety and lose control of the table just as easily.

when you get a tough shot and a tough safe go for the shot. it helps keep me in the mentality of try to win instead of trying not to lose. plus if you fire in the tough shot and get out it mindf***s your opponent lol

grindz
05-04-2009, 09:00 PM
.................................................. .....I hear there may soon be a NEW Room on Bell Road West of I-17 that will be ALL Diamonds, that is close to me. Maybe they will do as I heard 3-4 night a weeks tournaments. Mostly catering to the 8's and under.

..........................!

Do Tell............................ Inquiring minds want to know...

td

grindz
05-04-2009, 09:02 PM
Stay down and follow through with all my muster.

I put 'juice' on the ball.


You use Mustard???!!! :wink:


td

JasonCrugar
05-04-2009, 09:03 PM
I find that a good defensive game = a strong offensive game with ball in hand. You have to really weigh the shot out. What is more probable the safety or the aggresive shot. If I make the aggresive shot im a hero and if I dont he or she is out. I rather the latter. He who laughs last laughs the longest.

very true. but if you blow the safety and sell out, not only do they laugh longer, it stings alot more when you had the chance to win and you tried to duck cuz you are unsure of running out. i believe in safes. cant win without them. im just saying when given the choice between tough safe and tough shot im firing at that mofo.

DogsPlayingPool
05-04-2009, 09:11 PM
I'm not sure how to answer this because the question posed in the thread title is a little different than the one posed in your OP. But, to respond to the title question:

What do you do when you feel like you HAVE to take a low percentage shot?

I would commit to the shot 110%. Look at the layout, determine the cut, speed and tip placement required for position, then go through my preshot routine: get down, take dead aim, stroke with confidence and focus, and stay down on the shot.

This of course assumes there IS no viable safety since if there were then I wouldn't feel as though I HAVE to take a low percentage shot.

If there is a viable safety, then it's like any other decision that has alternatives. Weigh the choices and go with it. Again with total commitment.

CreeDo
05-04-2009, 10:49 PM
Cameron's got a good point, I'm definitely That Guy who always wants to run out. I sort of lose interest if I don't. I still try to win but I don't enjoy it as much.

I've seen a lot of sellouts on safeties... enough to know that I'd rather take a flyer at a tough shot if A. The leave is fairly high percentage, and I should be out or B. there's a clear 2-way going on where I leave the other guy crap if I miss.

A very bad habit that some people find hard to break... taking a flyer when you have no chance of getting on the next ball and no hope of getting out. Another very bad habit is cinching the really tough shot and not paying attention to leave. It's useless to focus really hard on making a tough shot when then having nothing to show for it. If the shot's already a 15% shot for you, go ahead and spin that cue ball and try for a good leave. If that drops your make percentage to 10%, so be it. You're already in trouble, make the best of it.

Everyone's luck runs out sometime, don't force yourself to do crap like back-to-back razor thin cuts or full table banks, the percentages catch up and you're gonna miss. Only do the flyer when success = probably winning the game.

CocoboloCowboy
05-05-2009, 04:28 AM
Buddy Hall had a VHS on 9 Ball safties, it was one of the BEST DVD i ever say on Safe Shots. Not sure of the name of the DVD, but it was by Buddy "the rifleman" Hall.

CocoboloCowboy
05-05-2009, 05:02 AM
The new TD runs the Sunday tourneys just fine. It's not rocket Science.

BVal


There must be something to be a TD, as Jay Halfert was imported from LA Last Year to the Valley to run a big money tournament in Phoenix, wonder why the promoter felt it was necessary to bring in an expert for that event?

JasonCrugar
05-05-2009, 07:32 AM
There must be something to be a TD, as Jay Halfert was imported from LA Last Year to the Valley to run a big money tournament in Phoenix, wonder why the promoter felt it was necessary to bring in an expert for that event?

holy crap did coocoo just make sense :eek: it was bound to happen after 38000000 posts lmao

the420trooper
05-05-2009, 07:34 AM
holy crap did coocoo just make sense :eek: it was bound to happen after 38000000 posts lmao

You must be counting PoolSleuth's posts, also....;)

(Not that there's anything wrong with that....)

TXsouthpaw
05-05-2009, 07:39 AM
I say the hell with position and fire the ball in, and hope i get some kinda shape on the next shot.

Like diliberto said, dont lose on a phony safety. I rather go down firing than go down ducking.

Im at my best when my backs against a wall anyways.

JasonCrugar
05-05-2009, 07:43 AM
You must be counting PoolSleuth's posts, also....;)

(Not that there's anything wrong with that....)

i count them til my eyes cross, then i have to divide by 2 and continue on

tom mcgonagle
05-05-2009, 07:49 AM
Low percentage shots are just what they say they are. Situations usually dictate how I approach them. If making one, guarantees me a great chance to win the game, I may take the risk. If making a low percentage shot, leads to another tough shot, I can't shoot the first one, that's suicide. There's a lot of ways to win in this game and a lot of ways to lose. The consistent winners usually play the best percentage shots. They have a way of wearing down your opponent.

CocoboloCowboy
05-05-2009, 07:51 AM
holy crap did coocoo just make sense :eek: it was bound to happen after 38000000 posts lmao

Must be more to running a big money tournament than the average person can see.

CocoboloCowboy
05-05-2009, 07:52 AM
Do Tell............................ Inquiring minds want to know...

td

When something can be said that is official, I will make a post.:wink:

watchez
05-05-2009, 07:57 AM
This question is too simple -

If it is a hard shot, hit it hard.

Next question.

CocoboloCowboy
05-05-2009, 07:59 AM
This question is too simple -

If it is a hard shot, hit it hard.

Next question.

http://www.geocities.com/cocobolocowboy/animlol.gifhttp://www.geocities.com/cocobolocowboy/animlol.gifhttp://www.geocities.com/cocobolocowboy/animlol.gifhttp://www.geocities.com/cocobolocowboy/animlol.gifhttp://www.geocities.com/cocobolocowboy/animlol.gif

JasonCrugar
05-05-2009, 07:59 AM
Must be more to running a big money tournament than the average person can see.

you missed what i said. oh well i knew making sense wouldnt last

poolfoole
05-05-2009, 08:00 AM
Sometimes I get this urge to shoot in rotation games, usually a combo or carom, attacking full speed to try and set the momentum of a set. I would say with honesty that it's usually a higher percentage out, but it's not 100%. And maybe it's not the smartest thing to do, especially when there is a possibility of a deadlock safe.

What are your guys' thoughts. I've really tried to adopt the whole "don't bother shooting if you think you're going to miss," philosophy, but these are misses that could be avoided. But if they're cinched, the confidence is always huge.

All opinions welcomed. Thanks.

You just have to play the percentages correctly.

If you're in a position where you have both a very low percentage shot and a very low percentage safety, always shoot.

If the safety is a higher percentage shot than the offensive shot, play safe and vice versa.

If there's no reward for making a low percentage shot, play safe. Paraphrasing Danny Diliberto, don't shoot a shot when there are only 2 possible outcomes: 1. you can't win from it. 2. you can lose from it.

the420trooper
05-05-2009, 08:03 AM
You just have to play the percentages correctly.

If you're in a position where you have both a very low percentage shot and a very low percentage safety, always shoot.

If the safety is a higher percentage shot than the offensive shot, play safe and vice versa.

If there's no reward for making a low percentage shot, play safe. Paraphrasing Danny Diliberto, don't shoot a shot when there are only 2 possible outcomes: 1. you can't win from it. 2. you can lose from it.

Good post, sounds like Danny D. really knows what he's talking about...He and Billy Incardona have been a large part of the foundation of my pool "wisdom"....

Neil
05-05-2009, 08:03 AM
...............

the420trooper
05-05-2009, 08:12 AM
I have found this to be a very interesting thread. But, it lacks pictures, so I thought I'd add some. This situation came up for me last Sun. nite at the local tourn. Bar box Diamonds, race to three, alt. break. I was playing another A player, and he had me down 2-0. I tied it up 2-2 and it was my break. I made the one on the break, and then faced this scenario. The 2 is very easily cut into the corner. But, you will run into the 4 doing so. I need to get right on the 3 to be able to get back on the 4 which should stay in the general vicinity it now is after hitting the 9.

The trick to it is this- I have to hit the 4 thin enough to be able to spin off it two rails to get on the 3. After much studying of it, I determined that I had a very fine line in which to hit the 4 properly. Too full on the 4 and I have no shot on the 3. So, what do I do here?

http://CueTable.com/P/?@2BVES3CALy2DRMj3EQGl2FAec4GMvJ4HCpY2IMWL2PVvu@

Did you have enough room to thin the 2 on the left side, and go 2 rails behind the 3-8? (Or was it a dead scratch?)

Even if you make the 2 and 3, it looks like the 9 occupies a large part of the area to land on the 4 ball....and it's hard to get to the 5 ball from THERE....what an ugly layout.

Neil
05-05-2009, 08:13 AM
.............

Neil
05-05-2009, 08:17 AM
...........

Neil
05-05-2009, 08:35 AM
................

supergreenman
05-05-2009, 09:22 AM
What if no matter what you do it is low percentage?

BVal

The important thing to remember when your facing any shot is that you should be committed to it.

This is especially important when you're shooting a low percentage shot.

When faced with a difficult shot a lot of people will spend less time preparing for it. They already have resigned themselves to missing so don't invest the time to plan the outcome of the shot so that even if they make it they don't get the shape they desire for thier next shot.

If you have a low percentage shot it's even more important to plan the outcome. This gives you confidence. Confidence sinks balls. Confidently sunk balls result in good shape.