PDA

View Full Version : Break Stats -- 2016 US Open 10-Ball Championship, July 2016


AtLarge
07-22-2016, 09:35 PM
Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2016 US Open 10-Ball Championship, played the past three days at the Rio Las Vegas Resort & Casino. The promoter, CueSports International, provided pay-per-view streaming.

Conditions -- The conditions for this call-shot 10-Ball event included:
- Diamond 7-foot table with 4" pro-cut corner pockets;
- Simonis 860 Tournament Blue cloth;
- Cyclop TV balls, including the red-spot cue ball;
- jump cues allowed;
- breaker racks using the Magic Rack template with the 2- and 3-balls on the back corners;
- alternating breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- cue-ball fouls only;
- opponent has choice to shoot or return the shot if a called ball goes in the wrong pocket or a ball is made on a safety; and
- spot any 10-ball made on the break.

These stats are for all 14 streamed matches, which were 14% of the event's 102 total matches:


Wednesday, July 20

Danny Smith defeated Mike Dechaine 10-1 (stats exclude last two games, which were conceded)
Oscar Dominguez d. Donny Mills 10-3
Corey Deuel d. Ernesto Dominguez 10-6
Jason Klatt d. Justin Bergman 10-9
Billy Thorpe d. Thorsten Hohmann 10-8


Thursday, July 21

Shane Van Boening d. Skyler Woodward 10-5
O. Dominguez d. Alex Pagulayan 10-9
Rodrigo Geronimo d. Thorpe 10-5
Rodney Morris d. Van Boening 10-7
Woodward d. O. Dominguez 10-9


Friday, July 22

John Morra d. Geronimo 10-8
Morra d. Woodward 10-7
Van Boening d. Morra 10-6 (semifinals)
Van Boening d. Morris 13-8 (finals)




Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball and did not foul 79% of the time (183 of 232), won 59% of the games (138 of 232), and broke and ran 38% of the games (89 of 232).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 232 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:

• Breaker won the game: 127 (55% of the 232 games)
• Breaker lost the game: 56 (24%)


Breaker fouled on the break:

• Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)
• Breaker lost the game: 16 (7%)


Breaker broke dry (without fouling):

• Breaker won the game: 8 (3%)
• Breaker lost the game: 22 (9%)


Therefore, whereas the breaker won 59% (138) of all 232 games,

• He won 69% (127 of 183) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
• He won 16% (3 of 19) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
• He won 27% (8 of 30) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
• He won 22% (11 of 49) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 89 break-and-run games represented 38% of all 232 games, 64% of the 138 games won by the breaker, and 49% of the 183 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 89 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 6-pack (by Morris in the hot-seat match against Van Boening), 6 alternate-break 3-packs, 10 alternate-break 2-packs, and 45 singles.

10-balls on the break: The 10-ball was made on the break only once (0.4% of the 232 breaks), and it was spotted rather than counting as a game win. With the Magic Rack, the 10-ball tends to remain close to its original position.

AtLarge
07-22-2016, 09:36 PM
Miscellany from the data for the 2016 US Open 10-Ball Championship:
[This relates only to the 14 streamed matches, not to all the matches in the event.]

The most balls made on a single break was 4, done twice by Rodrigo Geronimo and once each by Oscar Dominguez and Rodney Morris. The breaker won all 4 of those games, but Geronimo's were not by B&R.

The average number of balls made on the break was 1.5 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.7.

62% (143 of 232) of the games ended in one inning 38% (89) won by the breaker (B&R) and 23% (54) won by the non-breaker. 8% (18 of 232) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

48% (112 of 232) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 49% (89 of 183)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 79% (15 of 19)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks 27% (8 of 30)

The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 70% of the time (162 of 232)
- Won the game in a later inning 10% of the time (23 of 232)
- Lost the game 20% of the time (47 of 232)

The loser won an average of 6.4 games in the 13 races to 10. Three of those matches went to hill/hill; one finished at 10-1 (the shortest).

The match that was both longest in elapsed time (125 min.) and highest in average minutes per game (6.6 min./game) was Klatt d. Bergman 10-9. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

The match that was both shortest in elapsed time (60 min.) and lowest in average minutes per game (3.5 min./game) was Morris d. Van Boening 10-7 in the hot-seat match. [This excludes the first streamed match, where some games were conceded.]

The average elapsed time for the races to 10 (excluding the first streamed match) was 88 minutes. The average minutes per game, including the races to both 10 and 13, was 5.2.

Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 12 games, other fouls 1 for every 5 games, and missed shots 1 for every 3 games.

About 29% of the games involved one or more safeties.

pocket
07-23-2016, 12:01 AM
This is great stuff to look at!

Mind if I ask how you compile it? Thanks for the effort

barrymuch90
07-23-2016, 06:46 AM
One stat that jumps out to me is the the person that makes the first ball after the break wins 80% of the time. I'm sure that's similar to 9 ball but it goes to show games aren't won at the money ball at this level but more so by the person who gets to the first shot

AtLarge
07-23-2016, 10:48 AM
This is great stuff to look at!

Mind if I ask how you compile it? Thanks for the effort

Watch closely, take notes, compile manually (no software).

pocket
07-23-2016, 10:52 AM
Watch closely, take notes, compile manually (no software).

That's crazy my friend. Were you there I didn't think they streamed all the matches?

AtLarge
07-23-2016, 12:20 PM
That's crazy my friend. Were you there I didn't think they streamed all the matches?

The stats are for the 14 streamed matches, as listed in post #1.

AtLarge
07-23-2016, 07:54 PM
Fargo Favorites:

The player with the higher Fargo Rating at the start of the match won 9 of the 14 streamed matches (64%).