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View Full Version : Poll: Match between Karen Corr and Siming Chen: your guess

mikepage
08-15-2017, 02:47 PM
Imagine a set between Karen Corr and Siming Chen

Set is best of 5, races to 11 matches, with the equipment and rules of the US Open

But Karen may get a spot.

Using your best judgment, what spot makes the Set as close as possible, --so that YOU would struggle with which way to call it?

[Also, while you may weigh this any way you choose, please digest Siming's record since 2013 against these five players: Chezka Centeno, Kelly Fisher, Karen Corr, Jasmin Ouschan, and Allison Fisher. Siming has a winning record against all five; here are the aggregate results]

Siming 111 Opponents 72

Karen gets 0 games: match is 11 to 11
Karen gets 1 game: match is 11 to 10
Karen gets 2 games: match is 11 to 9
Karen gets 3 games: match is 11 to 8
Karen gets 4 games: match is 11 to 7
Karen gets 5 games: match is 11 to 6
Karen gets 6 games: match is 11 to 5
Karen gets 7 games: match is 11 to 4
other

mikepage
08-16-2017, 04:55 AM
bump.... need more responses here

Imagine a set between Karen Corr and Siming Chen

Set is best of 5, races to 11 matches, with the equipment and rules of the US Open

But Karen may get a spot.

Using your best judgment, what spot makes the Set as close as possible, --so that YOU would struggle with which way to call it?

[Also, while you may weigh this any way you choose, please digest Siming's record since 2013 against these five players: Chezka Centeno, Kelly Fisher, Karen Corr, Jasmin Ouschan, and Allison Fisher. Siming has a winning record against all five; here are the aggregate results]

Siming 111 Opponents 72

Karen gets 0 games: match is 11 to 11
Karen gets 1 game: match is 11 to 10
Karen gets 2 games: match is 11 to 9
Karen gets 3 games: match is 11 to 8
Karen gets 4 games: match is 11 to 7
Karen gets 5 games: match is 11 to 6
Karen gets 6 games: match is 11 to 5
Karen gets 7 games: match is 11 to 4
other

CreeDo
08-17-2017, 10:56 AM
just curious, what's the goal? You checking to see if people's guesses line up with Fargo's calculation? (I used Fargo to vote, otherwise I'd have no idea).

Is this only hypothetical or is a match in the works?

Experiment to see if there's wisdom in crowds (will the average of all the votes = the same spot as Fargo predicts)?

Anyway, Fargo says Karen is a slight underdog if she only gets 3 on the wire, and her cumulative chance of winning 3 out of 5 is ~45%. But one more game makes is almost unfair, making Karen a 2-1 favorite (66/33) over the long haul.

So given that a 5% edge is a bit less unfair, and given that Siming's done well vs. other top pros, 11-8 is the right race.

Get_A_Grip
08-17-2017, 10:59 AM
just curious, what's the goal? You checking to see if people's guesses line up with Fargo's calculation? (I used Fargo to vote, otherwise I'd have no idea).

Is this only hypothetical or is a match in the works?

Experiment to see if there's wisdom in crowds (will the average of all the votes = the same spot as Fargo predicts)?

Anyway, Fargo says Karen is a slight underdog if she only gets 3 on the wire, and her cumulative chance of winning 3 out of 5 is ~45%. But one more game makes is almost unfair, making Karen a 2-1 favorite (66/33) over the long haul.

So given that a 5% edge is a bit less unfair, and given that Siming's done well vs. other top pros, 11-8 is the right race.
Interesting. I selected 4 games on the wire for an "even" match. I would need 5 games to actually take Karen to win. It was my gut feeling. People that only selected Karen plus 1 or 2 games is why there will always be gambling on matches -- because there is always someone willing to take way the worst of it. Ha.

BeiberLvr
08-17-2017, 06:42 PM
Are we using Siming's Top 10 ranking or Top 100 ranking?

http://vvcap.com/img/r20umIjoxLz.png

mikepage
08-17-2017, 07:31 PM
Are we using Siming's Top 10 ranking or Top 100 ranking?

Sorry... It is the top 100 list at www.fargorate.com that is correct. We will get that fixed.