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View Full Version : Color of Money flame thread :P


CreeDo
05-13-2007, 10:32 AM
I'm taking this to a new post so as not to heavily pollute the other thread.
If anyone missed it, we were talking about the race to 120 in 9 ball where efren took earl 120-117. Russ has some bold statements that I kinda disagree with :P

How do you figure? Gambling is always about who plays better over a set amount of time or games.

I feel it's supposed to be about who plays better period... the length of the set is just used to make sure it's a fair competition, at the end it's just a statistic. 3 racks would be fair for a couple of C players and over 100 might be needed for world champions. In both cases the goals is the same, to see who's better, not whether "I'm better than he is at races to 5" or "he's better than I am after 4 days but not after 2". If it becomes about 'who's playing better on Tuesday' or whatever, what's the sense in risking the farm on it?


I take it you thought Earl and Efren played even back then?


You want to say with a straight face that you could have predicted the outcome despite how close it was? At 117-117 you wouldn't have been sweating even the tiniest bit if you had 2 years salary riding on the match? You could for example predict that efren couldn't possibly have scratched on the break on rack 118, and that earl wouldn't have run it with ball in hand and then run 2 more?

It's easy to say "I can see which way the wind's blowing" but... seriously, if it's so cut and dried, you can quit your day job and just back players for a living. "Good news honey! Neither of us ever has to work ever again! And all the kids are going to college for free!"

I think you suffer from magical thinking. You see it as very significant that efren's asskicking was done on day 3, while earl's was on day 2. Based on that, you're saying that having a string of great racks at the end of the race made efren the clear cut best player, and he would have continued to pull ahead no matter how many games they played. I don't think that's true. The final score is more significant than the day 3 performances. The fact that heads came up a bunch of times one day and tails came up a bunch the next day doesn't mean tails is more likely to come up every time. Look at the numbers, don't romanticize it with talk about heart or clutch or whatever. It was practically a coin toss. If they played twice as long, there's no reason to think that earl might have gone back to kicking ass on day 4, and then maybe it would have seesawed to efren on day 5, etc etc.

Also, I don't see any indication that earl rolled over and died. In fact, he was safe after efren's break, played a nice kick, got stuck a little afterwards, then did a nice semi-masse that kicked in the 1 ball and then got a very unlucky roll to scratch in the side after 3 rails. That was his losing shot. If that ball had stayed up, he had an easy 2 ball and it's very possible he could have finished up the race and left with the 100K.


But it was. It was long enough for us to see Earl choke big time at the end.


And suppose it had been played to, say, 70, or whatever... played to the point where strickland was 16 racks ahead. You'd probably be confidently crowing that it indisputably proves earl had the staying power and clutch ability and blah blah blah and that efren simply wasn't up to earl's speed.

Ummmmmmmm.. WOW. Please detail how it is mathematically possible for a person to win a 7 ahead session and have won fewer games.


I'll let you out for half ;D


By your reasoning, no one should ever gamble, because there is the slightest chance they are only two games better than their opponent over their ENTIRE LIVES.


Nope, never said that. I'm all for gambling between nearly even players. One thinks he has an edge that maybe the other doesn't see. What I'm saying is that someone pulling ahead by X games doesn't ALWAYS mean he is the better player. I think the color of money match illustrates that - one guy pulled ahead 16 racks so it might seem like he's better, but according to you he wasn't even close. Doesn't mean they shouldn't gamble, but it probably shouldn't be decided by a somewhat meaningless statistic about who pulled ahead at some point. I think the most fair way to gamble is a race that's long enough for that edge to come through. That means more than 120 games in earl and efren's case.

PS: Secretly I agree with you that efren's better :P What I mostly disagree with is the sorta "oh please, any noob can see it" attitude. I don't think efren was better by a big, obvious margin. I think it was a very small edge and it's cocky for anyone to claim they can easily see a big skill difference (at least in 9 ball). It's easy to make claims with the benefit of hindsight.

Russ Chewning
05-13-2007, 10:43 AM
Heh heh.. The only point I was trying to make, was that Efren effectively spotted Earl the break for two days, and still won.

Do you think that Earl has a chance if Efren's break was working more like it works in his current tournaments?

I'm not trying to start a flame war.. It's just my opinion that Efren runs out every bit as well as Earl, and doesn't lose games firing at jacked up, draw the ball table length shots the way Earl sometimes did. Against most opponents, Earl didn't get punished for doing that.

Yeah, so what if he made those shots sometimes? I've gambled with people before and had no fear when they made some "circus" shot and got out. Why? Because I know those shots don't go down so easy when they miss ONE of them and I punish him with 2 or 3 games. They don't all have to be break and runs, either. Just controlling the table for 3 games..

That's what Efren has going for him. He can put a 5 pack down just like Earl. But when he gets a groove going, he doesn't let up and make silly mistakes thinking "Oh, doesn't matter, because I'll run 5 racks when I get back to the table." I get the feeling Earl shot at hard shots sometimes with that thought in mind.

Also, Efren's break could be every bit as effective as Earl's. He has proven that in the modern era.

So, I stand by what I said. Efren effectively spotted Earl the break for two days, and still won. That pretty much sums it up.

Russ

Fatboy
05-13-2007, 11:22 AM
Who knows? it could have been business, thus will never really know. Its not like every big $$$ match is on the square. Just a thought, i have no idea and wasnt involved nor am I pointing any fingers or suggesting it was-was only a passing thought.

Russ Chewning
05-13-2007, 11:35 AM
Who knows? it could have been business, thus will never really know. Its not like every big $$$ match is on the square. Just a thought, i have no idea and wasnt involved nor am I pointing any fingers or suggesting it was-was only a passing thought.

I do know one thing.. Not a lot of players were jumping up to gamble with Efren at 9 ball in the 90's. Yeah, he wasn't winning tournaments as consistently as he does now, but so what? He was, and probaly still is a better gambler than tournament player. I guarantee you not many currently see Efren as a fish playing even 9 ball, and the ones who do, are almost all Filipino.

Not saying this actually happened, but here's a theory. It behooved Efren not to blow Earl out. If he beats Earl by 20 or more games, then that's pretty much the last big heads up match he's likely to get until another monster comes up the food chain.

Perhaps Efren didn't try as hard to adapt to the break on days one and two? I mean seriously.. Efren was a break technician before Corey started popping zits. :D I find it hard to believe that Efren struggled with his break for TWO SOLID DAYS, from what I have seen of the man's playing.

So, that being said, maybe Efren was stalling "just a little bit" for the first day and a half, and then had trouble coming off the stall the latter half of day two, and that made the match come a lot closer than it could have been.

Am I saying that Earl was putty in Efren's hands? No! Not at all! But given that Efren runs out just as good as Earl, possibly even better, and will never defeat himself the way Earl does sometimes, and add to that that Efren is a MUCH better safety player/kicker than Earl.. I personally think that no way is Earl "supposed" to get within 3 games of Efren.

I am not just being an Efren fanboy... I just happen to know a strong safety game can EASILY overcome a powerful offensive game if the safety player is making balls on the break. Add to that that Efren adjusts to table conditions very well, and finds a way to start making balls on the break, I just don't realistically see Efren struggling with the break for two days..

Russ

CreeDo
05-13-2007, 11:40 AM
well I read it was 75/25 split but I doubt it was business. Earl seems too proud to settle for some lemonade show.

About the breaks and earl taking flyers at tough shots... if that stuff is so significant and it will eventually come back to bite earl in the ass... would it really take 117 racks before it comes back to haunt him? If earl truly had a hole in his game (bad decisions, weak break or whatever) I don't think it'd just happen to show up somewhere around 100 games, it would either show up way earlier... or if he's even after 117, there is no problem, it's just a different but equally good style of play. It seems to me that the top pros play 9 ball pretty much the same and there are very few shots earl takes that efren would have passed up or played differently.

I also don't buy that efren was laying down on the break in any way whatsoever. There is no way he is going to risk throwing $100,000 bucks (actually 75) just to prevent souring future action. I think you're underestimating earl or overestimating the size of efren's skill level (and greed) to claim he's got a huge edge on a player of earl's caliber, an edge big enough that he can find a way to subtly throw a few games to make a carefully calculated close final score :P That's conspiracy nut stuff. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we can be reasonably sure it's not a fish. If the score is very close, the simplest and probably best explanation is that the players are very close in skill level.

I'll be watching the entire set soon. I think I'll jot down some stats like break and run, successful break percentage, unforced errors. Maybe that would be a fairer way to assess the truly better player despite the score being so close. The problem is that 'what's an error' is pretty subjective and the score is not. What's neat about such a long race is that there are a lot of interesting stats to geek out over, and some of them might be useful to aspiring 9 ball pros.

worriedbeef
05-13-2007, 12:13 PM
whilst russ makes a solid case and backs up his views, i still agree with CreeDo that he seems to be overestimating efren's skill and underestimating Earl's.

CreeDo is also right i think when he says that when it comes down to it, most top players play the game pretty similar. people seem to think Earl wasn't one of the best in the world at kicking and safety as well just because his main weapon was his attacking game. likewise, people forget that Efren's also a great shotmaker and can break well too.

they are two fundamentally different styles of player though, and perosnally earl does it for me. sometimes i feel people look on an attacking game such as Earl's as inferior to a game like efren's. i love watching efren play, but give me earl on fire blazing through a rack in inpirational form any day! :D

Luxury
05-13-2007, 03:25 PM
well I read it was 75/25 split but I doubt it was business. Earl seems too proud to settle for some lemonade show.

About the breaks and earl taking flyers at tough shots... if that stuff is so significant and it will eventually come back to bite earl in the ass... would it really take 117 racks before it comes back to haunt him? If earl truly had a hole in his game (bad decisions, weak break or whatever) I don't think it'd just happen to show up somewhere around 100 games, it would either show up way earlier... or if he's even after 117, there is no problem, it's just a different but equally good style of play. It seems to me that the top pros play 9 ball pretty much the same and there are very few shots earl takes that efren would have passed up or played differently.

I also don't buy that efren was laying down on the break in any way whatsoever. There is no way he is going to risk throwing $100,000 bucks (actually 75) just to prevent souring future action. I think you're underestimating earl or overestimating the size of efren's skill level (and greed) to claim he's got a huge edge on a player of earl's caliber, an edge big enough that he can find a way to subtly throw a few games to make a carefully calculated close final score :P That's conspiracy nut stuff. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we can be reasonably sure it's not a fish. If the score is very close, the simplest and probably best explanation is that the players are very close in skill level.

I'll be watching the entire set soon. I think I'll jot down some stats like break and run, successful break percentage, unforced errors. Maybe that would be a fairer way to assess the truly better player despite the score being so close. The problem is that 'what's an error' is pretty subjective and the score is not. What's neat about such a long race is that there are a lot of interesting stats to geek out over, and some of them might be useful to aspiring 9 ball pros.

How did you order this match and how much did it cost?

Russ Chewning
05-13-2007, 03:35 PM
How did you order this match and how much did it cost?

Before you order the match, be aware that it is not filmed in the Accu-Stats format, and I am not even sure if it has commentary.

Russ

Lun@ticfringe
05-13-2007, 05:28 PM
I'd pay double for no commentary:D

CreeDo
05-13-2007, 05:45 PM
Luxury - ah, ... I got it from a friend?!
They have it for sale on accu-stats.com :)

if you search for it on youtube it's easy to find a bunch of clips (maybe even the whole thing? not sure). It's funny, IIRC the version on youtube has official commentary, but without any editing, so you'll catch them saying "hold on for a sec I gotta go the bathroom" or making side comments or whatever. There's also an official commentary version, I forgot who by... Billy Incardona for sure, and maybe DiLiberto as the other? And I've heard there's a cammed version without commentary too but I think you'd be better off with the official version and just turn down the volume.

Fatboy
05-13-2007, 06:40 PM
well I read it was 75/25 split but I doubt it was business. Earl seems too proud to settle for some lemonade show.

.


sometimes the rail makes it business on the fly or between sessions[with the players concent of course, I have been propositioned-never got involved though-and I doubt they(Efren or Earl) did in this match, I made this post for the benefit of some people out there who arnt aware of such tactics]. It can be business for only one day and square the rest of the time, but i doubt this was the case in this match, Efren was a geat 9B player in the 90's a i watched him alot, as was Earl(as long as his head was on straight, it appeared so in the bits and pieces of this race i have seen) so it could have been that close, but funny things can hapen over 3 days, either way it was great to watch.

It was best for both of them to keep it close so they didnt knock their upcomming action by winning a blow out in this game. The rail birds in that game didnt remind me of a bunch of C players trying to pick up ideas to improve their games or husbands with upset wifes, I'm sure they all had a big peace of something-alot of prop bets etc, the rail is huge in games like that-espically over a few days, everyone has their own ideas and is looking for an angle-again this is only my opinion and I have no knowlege of anything specific- I dont want to know, its speculation.

Earl will do whats best for Earl as is the case for most of all of us.

we'll never know and honestly i dont wan t to know, the less you know the better in pool anytime its business, I awalys avoided that part of the game, I dont like the reputaton/danger that comes with it. I'm only talking about this now because its old but i'm still not comfortable with it.

I have awalys thought Earl(when things are right in his mind) is a better 9B player than anyone including Efren, but overall Efren is the most talented player. I would like to see the whole match and I hope there are more like it down the road and on the square.

I''m new here on this site but I've been around for years, if you know what i mean. If you dont thats cool keep playing pool is a great game. I dont even know what a league is, I was all aboutthe action. To me thats what pool is all about, how good you move on and off the table without cheating.

And please dont think I'm accusing anyone of cheating in that race I was only using it as an example of how business can work to inform people here what it is and how it does work. It could have been any match, I just picked this one as a example and I have never heard of Earl or Efren being involved in anything dishonest. They are true champions. I could change the names and the story would read the same. Perhaps I will so ther is no confusion they are both stand up honest players in our sport.

Fatboy
05-13-2007, 07:19 PM
I do know one thing.. Not a lot of players were jumping up to gamble with Efren at 9 ball in the 90's. Yeah, he wasn't winning tournaments as consistently as he does now, but so what? He was, and probaly still is a better gambler than tournament player. I guarantee you not many currently see Efren as a fish playing even 9 ball, and the ones who do, are almost all Filipino.

Not saying this actually happened, but here's a theory. It behooved Efren not to blow Earl out. If he beats Earl by 20 or more games, then that's pretty much the last big heads up match he's likely to get until another monster comes up the food chain.

Perhaps Efren didn't try as hard to adapt to the break on days one and two? I mean seriously.. Efren was a break technician before Corey started popping zits. :D I find it hard to believe that Efren struggled with his break for TWO SOLID DAYS, from what I have seen of the man's playing.

So, that being said, maybe Efren was stalling "just a little bit" for the first day and a half, and then had trouble coming off the stall the latter half of day two, and that made the match come a lot closer than it could have been.

Am I saying that Earl was putty in Efren's hands? No! Not at all! But given that Efren runs out just as good as Earl, possibly even better, and will never defeat himself the way Earl does sometimes, and add to that that Efren is a MUCH better safety player/kicker than Earl.. I personally think that no way is Earl "supposed" to get within 3 games of Efren.

I am not just being an Efren fanboy... I just happen to know a strong safety game can EASILY overcome a powerful offensive game if the safety player is making balls on the break. Add to that that Efren adjusts to table conditions very well, and finds a way to start making balls on the break, I just don't realistically see Efren struggling with the break for two days..

Russ

i agree, nice post

Hail Mary Shot
05-13-2007, 08:03 PM
I agree with Creedo concerning this matter. nobody can predict what could had happened or who could have won that Color of Money match. both players played excellent and above anyone else's standard. It could had been Earl or could had been Efren. so that match was a nailbiter by any other standards.

WPC event (Finals). Busty vs Earl. Busty was cruisin on to win and needed just 2 more racks while Earl was behind him about 4 racks (IIRC) , 6 racks to win it. Busty was making balls on every break and running out. clearly the odds were against Earl til Busty scratched on the break along with some balls. Earl went on to win without giving Busty a chance again at the table.
the point here is that players of this caliber cannot afford to commit a single mistake, coz a mistake could be fatal and their last. as much as possible they want to keep their opponent off the table. every player knows the capacity of the other. Earl knows this , Efren knows this.