I think where we are stuck is that you seem to be accepting that the shoot out is equivalent to a race to 4 match. Correct me if I’m wrong.
I didn't say that, nor do I think that, and have said so. What I think, because it is what the evidence shows so far, it the totality of the format is proving to pick the best players, and have the same amount of upsets, as race to 8 tournaments. As I stated before, it doesn't really matter what just the last set of the match does, because they aren't playing only that last third set in isolation. They are playing three sets, so it only matters what three sets they play does, and it comes up with the same results as a race to 8. You are fixated on a single set, but they aren't playing a single set, yet you refuse to look at the match as a whole and want to fixate on just one of three sets for some reason instead of the whole match.
You are literally arguing that a plate of food isn't going to make you full, while only looking at one of the sides. "That plate of food isn't going to make me full, look at how small that portion of green beans is". "But look at that steak and mashed potatoes too". "That won't make a difference to how full the plate get me, look at the size of those green beans". "But with the steak and mashed potatoes, it is actually a big plate of food, and furthermore the evidence also shows that it is going to make you full because it makes everybody else full when they eat it". "Can't be, do you see the size of the green beans?" Just like the whole plate is what determines how full you are going to be, and you can't just look at one of the sides to form a judgment, so it is with this format where you have to consider the whole match, and not just cherry pick that one set of three. The whole match leads to about the same results as races to 8 does, just like the whole plate is going to make you full even if the side of green beans may have been a little on the smaller side if by itself.
But I personally can’t accept that concept which is why I mention that you only need to win a single race to 4 in order to force a shoot out.
What you may not be giving enough consideration to is that you aren't very likely to win even a single race to 4 to begin with to even make it go to the 3rd set if the disparity in your skill levels is very big. I don't see many 600 Fargos beating SVB or Yapp etc in even a single race to 4 in a tournament like this. Yes it will happen on occasion, but not very often. You are going to have to not be completely out of your league to even win a set to begin with, but the vast majority of the time when one player is way better than the other the way better player will win the first two sets outright, and a way worse player certainly isn't very likely to ever win two out of the three sets, even with the last set being stop shots.
And keep in mind that players who aren't too substantially worse than their opponent sometimes outplay their better opponent, or get the rolls, and pull off the upset, regardless of the format (in this case it happens about as often as in races to 8).