Mike Page, FargoRate, Greg Hogue, and the Mosconi Cup

[Woodshaft]

Mr. Page is well aware of the flaws of his fargorate formula.
That said, there will always be those who cheat the system.
My feeling is that, especially at those big entry fee fargorate-capped tourneys, there are gonna be sandbaggers.
Many good players have figured out how to keep their fargorates low by sandbagging in bca leagues and in weekly "cheapie" tournaments.
Trust me, I know a lot of guys who do this.
Mr. Page knows it happens too.
And as long as ALL fargorated wins/losses are thrown into the data, many player's fargoratings can and will be skewed, at least at the amateur level.
Also, Mr. Page still doesn't get the concept of pool skill:
Mike, fargorates (pool abilities) don't generally ever go down much, but a player CAN improve quickly. Thus, quit putting so much weight on older data lol. Your formula definitely causes "fargorate lag" when player's improve!!! And you know it.

 

[SEB]

Mr. Page is well aware of the flaws of his fargorate formula.
That said, there will always be those who cheat the system.
My feeling is that, especially at those big entry fee fargorate-capped tourneys, there are gonna be sandbaggers.
Many good players have figured out how to keep their fargorates low by sandbagging in bca leagues and in weekly "cheapie" tournaments.
Trust me, I know a lot of guys who do this.
Mr. Page knows it happens too.
And as long as ALL fargorated wins/losses are thrown into the data, many player's fargoratings can and will be skewed, at least at the amateur level.
Also, Mr. Page still doesn't get the concept of pool skill:
Mike, fargorates (pool abilities) don't generally ever go down much, but a player CAN improve quickly. Thus, quit putting so much weight on older data lol. Your formula definitely causes "fargorate lag" when player's improve!!! And you know it.

I'm blown away he didn't give us the sauce on Hogue's last few months. Absolutely blown away. Like...what's the point of keeping it a secret!?

It makes me feel like what you're saying here with the "fargorate lag" carries some serious weight and that revealing his performance over the last few months might show some serious warts on the FargoRate system.

 

[Woodshaft]

It makes me feel like what you're saying here with the "fargorate lag" carries some serious weight and that revealing his performance over the last few months might show some serious warts on the FargoRate system.

Mike Page knows that his formula is flawed. Problem is, if he tries to "fix" it, it will change A LOT of fargorates.
So he hides behind his "good enough" logic.
He makes a solid living off it, I can't really blame him lol

 

[jtompilot]

In my opinion, a big part of the problem with "manipulation" of ratings is the leagues themselves. Is the league structured to encourage good play and improvement? Or is it structured in such a way as to make it more profitable to keep your handicaps low?
My local BCA 8 ball league pays money for every ball you make, even if you lose the game. 10 points for a win, up to 7 if you lose. End of season, divide total money by total points, and everyone gets paid the same per point. No trophies, no trips, no BS.

For 90% of the players, the leagues are designed to drink beer and be a C player for life. That’s my take on it and why I gave them up.

 

[Jaden]

For 90% of the players, the leagues are designed to drink beer and be a C player for life. That’s my take on it and why I gave them up.

I only did leagues, first as a favor to a friend and then because they were my sponsor on the mezz west state tour. However, I made some really good friends that I otherwise wouldn't have, had some great experiences and overall enjoyed myself.

The only reason I was looking to do it again was in the bca league to qualify for some tourneys but I believe they've since changed that so I don't have to.

Jaden

 

[ideologist]

Greg Hogue is a perfect example of the problems with FargoRate when it comes to changes in skill level. I didn't listen to the podcast, but it sounds like he may have played thousands of games under the influence of meth. Now he's off meth and playing better. It will take years for his rating to reflect anything like his true skill level.

Hogue finished 17th at the US Open alongside 800-rated players like Wu Kun Lin, Oi, Feijen, Ko Pin Yi, and so on. Who are you going to believe, his 699 rating or your lying eyes?

Now is this an extreme case? Sure. But it's emblematic of the (reasonable) choice made to prioritize stability over responsiveness. There are pros and cons to every model and it's not nitpicky to suss them out.

Finishing well in a single tournament is a fluke of the draw and your opponents.

Finishing well in 20 tournaments would be pretty strong and his ranking would jump up a ton

 

[mikepage]

When looked at in the aggregate, this is unsurprising. More games means more data and more data means a better model. The vast majority of people do not sandbag. The vast majority of people do not have drastic changes in their skill level over time. Thus limiting the number of games is only going to introduce "slop" as you call it.

However, this is only true on average. The way the system is set up now is not responsive to changes in skill level, with a huge delay effect and old games that take years to stop having substantial influence on a player's rating, and is not responsive to intentional sandbagging in minor events. My point was simply that there are ways to counteract these effects through a different model with different pros and cons.

Even in the contained FargoRate context, having a "suspicious" flag for internal use before Vegas that examines past Vegas performance vs. everything else is not some kind of crazy "slop" scheme.

The system IS responsive to changes in skill level for experienced players who start taking the game more seriously or start working really hard or become focussed on improving.

There is no "huge delay effect." There are two situations for which the"lag" is significant. The first is players with a rapid physical decline. Players who suffer a significant stroke, for instance, can have actual decline that is tracked poorly. The other is young players who learn and improve rapidly at the same time they are developing physically. We sometimes have a lag there.

 

[skip100]

Finishing well in a single tournament is a fluke of the draw and your opponents.

Finishing well in 20 tournaments would be pretty strong and his ranking would jump up a ton

He has 6000 games which peg him at a 699 level. We can think of this as banked data as it does not go away, minus a slow decay effect, and keeps contributing to the model's prediction of how good Hogue is.

If he played the next 1000 games at an 800 level, his rating would rise to somewhere in the 730-740 range depending on how old those games are. This is responsiveness in name only.

Above Mike says there is "no huge delay effect" but then mentions two situations where there is in fact a huge delay effect. OK...

 

[ideologist]

He has 6000 games which peg him at a 699 level. If he played the next 1000 games at an 800 level, his rating would probably rise to somewhere in the 730-740 range depending on how old those games are. This is responsiveness in name only.

Above Mike says there is "no huge delay effect" but then mentions two situations where there is in fact a huge delay effect. OK...

That's not how ELO works. If he won/lost the first 6000 over weaker opponents, wins are not as impactful as losses. If the next 1000 are over 780+ players, wins are much more impactful than losses.

It's all about who you play

 

[skip100]

That's not how ELO works. If he won/lost the first 6000 over weaker opponents, wins are not as impactful as losses. If the next 1000 are over 780+ players, wins are much more impactful than losses.

It's all about who you play

FargoRate is not Elo. All of the games are fed into the model every day to produce ratings.

FargoRate -- a look behind the curtain - FargoRate Blog

News and usage hints for FargoRate.

www.fargorate.com

Elo is one of the models that would reduce the responsiveness problem, while introducing other problems along the way.

 

[ideologist]

FargoRate is not Elo. All of the games are fed into the model every day to produce ratings.

FargoRate -- a look behind the curtain - FargoRate Blog

News and usage hints for FargoRate.

www.fargorate.com

Elo is one of the models that would reduce the responsiveness problem, while introducing other problems along the way.

It's similar enough in a weighting capacity that my point stands. It's not a pure average, it is based on the strength of your opponent

 

[iusedtoberich]

For 90% of the players, the leagues are designed to drink beer and be a C player for life. That’s my take on it and why I gave them up.

I think you meant D player

 

[mikepage]

[...]

Above Mike says there is "no huge delay effect" but then mentions two situations where there is in fact a huge delay effect. OK...

If you were referring to one of your counterfactuals, to players who have a debilitating stroke, or to pubescent phenoms, then I concede.

 

[Coos Cues]

Ok Folks here is the skinny. I did this for you all to draw your own conclusions.

The last 112 games recorded in Fargo rate for Mr. Hogue return the following results.

This includes the US open. Is this man on fire?

 

[couldnthinkof01]

Ok Folks here is the skinny. I did this for you all to draw your own conclusions.

The last 112 games recorded in Fargo rate for Mr. Hogue return the following results.

This includes the US open. Is this man on fire?

View attachment 668214

Ya, the guy said he did drugs and played half assed for 30 years. Quit, dedicated himself and took that drive and put it towards pool.# 1. Good for him. #2. People who up to their game to do that(play better than their handicap average because of hard work) deserve to win and all the things that come with it. Fargo will catch up and you should get paid until then. Good for him.

 

[iusedtoberich]

Ok Folks here is the skinny. I did this for you all to draw your own conclusions.

The last 112 games recorded in Fargo rate for Mr. Hogue return the following results.

This includes the US open. Is this man on fire?

View attachment 668214

Seems in-line with his lifetime average. I guess the "hope" didn't pan out

 

[iusedtoberich]

Ya, the guy said he did drugs and played half assed for 30 years. Quit, dedicated himself and took that drive and put it towards pool.# 1. Good for him. #2. People who up to their game to do that(play better than their handicap average because of hard work) deserve to win and all the things that come with it. Fargo will catch up and you should get paid until then. Good for him.

Half the top players I know locally all use drugs. I think if they stopped, they'd play worse. I don't know how M compares, but the one I'm talking about is H and its related pain meds.

My point being I don't think there is a huge effect being on or off drugs as far as pool performance goes.

 

[Coos Cues]

Half the top players I know locally all use drugs. I think if they stopped, they'd play worse. I don't know how M compares, but the one I'm talking about is H and its related pain meds.

My point being I don't think there is a huge effect being on or off drugs as far as pool performance goes.

We have a local player here in the Northwest named Matt Horner. His fargo is right around 700. To my knowledge he has never been a drug addict. A few years back at Reno he had the following results in the 9 ball event race to 9. Defeated three pros in a row and competed well with the other 2.

Should he be on the Mosconi cup? Of course not it's just silly.

 

[MJB]

Soooo....Greg Hogue (nicknamed Spanky) joined Doggin' it last night and there was a lot to unpack. First off, Molina really has settled into his role as an interviewer and voice of the professional pool scene.

Hogue was a wildman, amped with energy and charisma. The show starts off with Hogue talking about being a 30 year meth user and has now been clean for about 3 years. Hogue was definitely going overboard in many ways but came off as passionate and likable. The interesting part for me was when Hogue actually turned off the wild persona and talked seriously about the game. You can tell there is a lot of substance and character behind his wild persona. He is a certified PBIA instructor, a mechanics expert, and a tireless driller. Behind the wild facade and decades of drug use is someone that takes his craft incredibly seriously. He put in 38 hours of practice this week and 55 last week. He feels whether he makes Mosconi or not, he's going places. And who can argue with him??

I have to say, I was intrigued by the whole thing. A sub 700 FargoRated, middle-aged, ex-addict from Oklahoma came 1 match away from making the Mosconi Cup on his own merit. He currently is in 4th place in the standings and is the only American to win a Matchroom event other than SVB...and from what I understand from the interview is that he only played 2 ranking events! (Sandcastle and the US Open!) The man seems to have a nose for the finish line and makes one hell of a case for himself which brought me to so many other questions.

Here is where my question lies:

Hogue goes on a mini rant about how there must be something wrong with FargoRate because he is currently a 699 yet he's beaten all these top pros. Now I, on the other hand, am a firm believer in FargoRate...It's made me a believer over the years and I have found it to be astoundingly accurate. The case against Greg Hogue is that he can win everything he wants....we're not putting a sub 700 FargoRated person on the team...it just ain't happening. A player of that level just simply isn't good enough.

UNLESS...Spanky's theory on FargoRate has some merit...With over 6000 games in the system, is his Fargorate simply lagging behind his current speed?

I thought it would be an interesting question for Mike Page from FargoRate. Greg Hogue won the Sandcastle 9 ball event back in early June to start this cinderella run. I'm hoping Mike can chime in here and do a player review on Hogue from June 1st to now. If Spanky is playing at a higher level than his current Fargo reflects then the case for him making the team only strengthens. BUT...If his FargoRate since June is consistent with his current rating, then we can all thank Greg for an incredible 2022 run and wish him luck for a 2023 bid.

It sounds like Greg has really gotten himself straight and found something he's passionate in. Good for him, and I hope we see him make more of a splash in big events. But seriously, what does that have to do with his Fargo? People who criticize Fargo take such a narrow view. It's usually "player X is under rated because he beat player Y" or "player X finished well in a few events and is under rated". I mean, he's got THOUSANDS of games in, and you want to see a 20-30 point bump because of a few events!? I'll take some of whatever you're smokin'. And why does his Fargo even matter? It's not going to determine whether he makes Mosconi Cup. This is just another episode of the keyboard Fargo haters.

 

[MJB]

Half the top players I know locally all use drugs. I think if they stopped, they'd play worse. I don't know how M compares, but the one I'm talking about is H and its related pain meds.

My point being I don't think there is a huge effect being on or off drugs as far as pool performance goes.

That's an incredibly ignorant statement.