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-   -   T-Rex vs Robocop Big Money One Pocket Action Rubber Match (https://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=497694)

one stroke 09-22-2019 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Jewett (Post 6481501)
Maybe I can help with that.

If you calculate their relative FargoRate from just the 55 games played so far, Dennis is about 26 points above Tony. If those two players now play a match to 10/15 the match odds come out to be 93% for Dennis, or about 13:1.

An alternative bet would be to give Tony six or seven on the wire at this point for even money.

Guys were getting 9 before it started I figured 10 or better based on thier last match


1

sjm 09-22-2019 11:59 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Jewett (Post 6481501)
Maybe I can help with that.

If you calculate their relative FargoRate from just the 55 games played so far, Dennis is about 26 points above Tony. If those two players now play a match to 10/15 the match odds come out to be 93% for Dennis, or about 13:1.

An alternative bet would be to give Tony six or seven on the wire at this point for even money.

Wow, that's impressive that Fargo is so consistent wit the binomial probability implied by the results so far. If we assume that Tony's probability of winning a given rack is 25/55, which is about .4545, we can use Fermat's equation to determine the likelihood that he'll have 15 successes before he has 10 failures. I checked it out and Fermat's equation gives Tony a .0707 chance of winning this match and Dennis a .9293 chance. Makes me wonder if Fargo uses the same methodology.

AtLarge 09-22-2019 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Jewett (Post 6481501)
Maybe I can help with that. ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjm (Post 6481579)
Wow, that's impressive ...

Yeah, but Tony beat Dennis 11-6 in the last 17 games last night. Maybe we've had a tectonic shift in their underlying frizoolas or fermifargos or whatevers. Surely someone will take Tony even now, right?


[er, not me]

sjm 09-22-2019 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AtLarge (Post 6481588)
Yeah, but Tony beat Dennis 11-6 in the last 17 games last night. Maybe we've had a tectonic shift in their underlying frizoolas or fermifargos or whatevers. Surely someone will take Tony even now, right?


[er, not me]

I must plead guilty to the charge of having overlooked the frizoola factor.

JoeyInCali 09-22-2019 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AtLarge (Post 6481588)
Yeah, but Tony beat Dennis 11-6 in the last 17 games last night. Maybe we've had a tectonic shift in their underlying frizoolas or fermifargos or whatevers. Surely someone will take Tony even now, right?


[er, not me]

Or Dennis eased on the pedal and did not want to win by double digits .

sjm 09-22-2019 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeyInCali (Post 6481598)
Or Dennis eased on the pedal and did not want to win by double digits .

Not likely he's stalling to set up the big money, BECAUSE THIS IS THE BIG MONEY!

one stroke 09-22-2019 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjm (Post 6481599)
Not likely he's stalling to set up the big money, BECAUSE THIS IS THE BIG MONEY!

Not big just more of it ,


1

Bob Jewett 09-22-2019 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjm (Post 6481579)
... Makes me wonder if Fargo uses the same methodology.

Yes, I'm pretty sure it does.

I think the tool on the Fargo "fairmatch" page has a limit of 99 games per player because the combinatorials involved create very large intermediate values. It is possible to set up the calculation as a Markov chain which avoids the intermediate large numbers and very long matches can be calculated.

Neither method takes frizoolas into account, so caveat emptor.

terryhanna 09-22-2019 01:57 PM

1 Attachment(s)
We are LIVE from Buffalo's Billiards for day four.

Tune in and see if T-Rex can fight his way back from the 30-25 deficit.

Attachment 530455

ribdoner 09-22-2019 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjm (Post 6481599)
Not likely he's stalling to set up the big money, BECAUSE THIS IS THE BIG MONEY!

the closer the match the more $$$ will be put into action by the TC corp or others

DO doesn't win by double digits....will win by 4 to 6 games

ShortBusRuss 09-22-2019 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Jewett (Post 6481614)
Yes, I'm pretty sure it does.

I think the tool on the Fargo "fairmatch" page has a limit of 99 games per player because the combinatorials involved create very large intermediate values. It is possible to set up the calculation as a Markov chain which avoids the intermediate large numbers and very long matches can be calculated.

Neither method takes frizoolas into account, so caveat emptor.

Yah know.. That just made me think of something.. It seems like Fargorate operates much the same as the U.S. Chess Federation (USCF) ratings, if not using the same exact maths, still using statistics. And uschess.org has a "ratings calculator" function that allows one to calculate out the exact ratings point changes expected from one's performance in a certain tournament...

USCF also has the capability to run one's own tournaments, and submit the results online directly to the USCF, and the database is updated within the next calendar month.

These would seem to be some tasty vittles for Mike Page to go after.

ShortBusRuss 09-22-2019 03:52 PM

34-26

Oh, look! Dennis misses a cut and leaves Tony a shot.

Sure wouldn't want the score to get out of hand, eh? Lol.

pt109 09-22-2019 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AtLarge (Post 6481588)
Yeah, but Tony beat Dennis 11-6 in the last 17 games last night. Maybe we've had a tectonic shift in their underlying frizoolas or fermifargos or whatevers. Surely someone will take Tony even now, right?


[er, not me]

Frizoolas alert!!!!!!!!!!!

Tony Chohanís fargorate is 759....puts him a #15 in the USA...
...he is not in the top 100 in world fargorate.

But when one-pocket is mentioned, heís usually in the top five...
...sometimes #3, right after Dennis and Alex.

If Tony and Dennis were playing ten-ball, there would be no rubber match.

Alert ended....please resume your normal activities.

crazysnake 09-22-2019 04:03 PM

What's the score?

Sent from my Moto Z2 Play using Tapatalk

JoeyInCali 09-22-2019 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjm (Post 6481599)
Not likely he's stalling to set up the big money, BECAUSE THIS IS THE BIG MONEY!

Doubt it.
The poker player and maybe Scotty are the bigger money.
Plus Tony might still want some with some weight, later on.


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