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-   -   Most impressive aspect of Schmitís Record Run (https://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=504301)

ChrisinNC 12-19-2019 09:33 AM

Most impressive aspect of Schmitís Record Run
 
As a player who has played 14.1 for nearly 50 years, with a personal high run of 7 racks
accomplished 20 years ago and still not giving up trying to break that century mark despite my advancing years, Iíd like to offer my opinion as to the most impressive aspect of Johnís 626 - 45 consecutive rack run.

To me, it is unquestionably how unlikely it is for anyone to successfully set up and execute 45 consecutive beginning of the rack break shots - managing to not only avoid scratching but leaving himself a high percentage shot after that to continue his run. That is, for myself, without a doubt, the one most common cause of ending my attempts to be able to successfully string 14.1 racks together.

More impressive than the obvious unworldly skills needed to run 45 consecutive racks, those 45 out of 45 successful break shots, leaving himself at least a reasonable shot every single time, in my opinion is not only incredible and extremely unlikely to occur for anyone, but I would venture to say lucky and extremely unlikely to ever be surpassed, even for the very best players in the world! Opinions?

sjm 12-19-2019 10:34 AM

I'm inclined to agree.

In a typical rack, it is the break shot that entails the greatest risk (and, as you correctly point out, sometimes some luck) to the player, as the shot tends to be missable and the final cue ball position is harder to predict than on other shots. To have made that many break shots in a row and to have found at least some shape onto the next ball every time is, as you suggest, truly remarkable.

DynoDan 12-19-2019 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisinNC (Post 6541612)
As a player who has played 14.1 for nearly 50 years, with a personal high run of 7 racks
accomplished 20 years ago and still not giving up trying to break that century mark despite my advancing years, I’d like to offer my opinion as to the most impressive aspect of John’s 626 - 45 consecutive rack run.

To me, it is unquestionably how unlikely it is for anyone to successfully set up and execute 45 consecutive beginning of the rack break shots - managing to not only avoid scratching but leaving himself a high percentage shot after that to continue his run. That is, for myself, without a doubt, the one most common cause of ending my attempts to be able to successfully string 14.1 racks together.

More impressive than the obvious unworldly skills needed to run 45 consecutive racks, those 45 out of 45 successful break shots, leaving himself at least a reasonable shot every single time, in my opinion is not only incredible and extremely unlikely to occur for anyone, but I would venture to say lucky and extremely unlikely to ever be surpassed, even for the very best players in the world! Opinions?

Chris,
BTW: Your bio sounds exactly like mine (still chasing the ‘100 ball runner’ label in my 70s).
I agree his run is a ‘one-in-a-million’ example of incredible luck, which is why I’m anxiously waiting (bated breath) for the DVD.
My (frustrating) experience with 14.1 suggests that breaking 45 racks without ending up hopelessly hooked, would be like going over Niagara Falls in an Iron Maiden and coming out without a scratch, or maybe shooting a hundred straight passes with honest dice!

AtLarge 12-19-2019 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisinNC (Post 6541612)
... Opinions?

My opinion is full agreement. I used to think (and say, in discussions) the same thing about Mosconi's 526 (or any other extremely long run). Mosconi's run had 37 beginning-of-rack break shots. Surviving that many break shots in a row, let alone 45, is just astonishing.

AtLarge 12-19-2019 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisinNC (Post 6541612)
,,, still not giving up trying to break that century mark despite my advancing years ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by DynoDan (Post 6541785)
... (still chasing the ‘100 ball runner’ label in my 70s) ...

I've often wondered who ran 100 or more for the first time in his life at the oldest age.

ChrisinNC 12-20-2019 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AtLarge (Post 6541831)
My opinion is full agreement. I used to think (and say, in discussions) the same thing about Mosconi's 526 (or any other extremely long run). Mosconi's run had 37 beginning-of-rack break shots. Surviving that many break shots in a row, let alone 45, is just astonishing.

I like math and stats, so just for kicks, I punched in some numbers to see what kind of odds weíre talking about this 626 ball run by John having happened. For this analysis, we have to make 2 assumptions which I feel are fairly accurate. Firstly, for a top experienced pro level 14.1 player, their chances even with a perfectly set up break shot are roughly 90% that they will successfully make the break shot and leave themself with a high percentage shot after the break shot. The second assumption is that once assumption 1 is accomplished, that player will then have roughly a 90% chance to completely run out that rack out and leave themselves with a high percentage break shot in to the next rack.

The mathematical chance of accomplishing both of these for 45 consecutive racks is reached by multiplying 90% to the 90th power or 81% (90% x 90%) to the 45th power. What you come up with is it likely happening one time in every roughly one quarter million (250,000) attempts! Thatís the kind of odds Schmidy was up against of running 626 balls, and the odds anyone else will be up against if they are attempting to break that record, and that is only if they already possess the elite professional 14.1 skill set!

Bob Jewett 12-20-2019 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisinNC (Post 6542321)
I like math and stats, so just for kicks, I punched in some numbers to see what kind of odds we’re talking about this 626 ball run by John having happened. For this analysis, we have to make 2 assumptions which I feel are fairly accurate. Firstly, for a top experienced pro level 14.1 player, their chances even with a perfectly set up break shot are roughly 90% that they will successfully make the break shot and leave themself with a high percentage shot after the break shot. The second assumption is that once assumption 1 is accomplished, that player will then have roughly a 90% chance to completely run out that rack out and leave themselves with a high percentage break shot in to the next rack.

The mathematical chance of accomplishing both of these for 45 consecutive racks is reached by multiplying 90% to the 90th power or 81% (90% x 90%) to the 45th power. What you come up with is it likely happening one time in every roughly one quarter million (250,000) attempts! That’s the kind of odds Schmidy was up against of running 626 balls, and the odds anyone else will be up against if they are attempting to break that record, and that is only if they already possess the elite professional 14.1 skill set!

John was close to 25% to run another 100 starting from a typical position according to actual statistics on his runs. That's close to the odds for a single rack you quote. He was odds-on to run 527 for as many tries as he had. He had about a one-in-four chance of getting to 626 in as many tries as he took. Our results are different because a small change in the percentage per rack makes a large change in the long-run chances.

I think that players like Mosconi and Cranfield actually had even higher single-rack percentages.

ChrisinNC 12-20-2019 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Jewett (Post 6542337)
John was close to 25% to run another 100 starting from a typical position according to actual statistics on his runs. That's close to the odds for a single rack you quote. He was odds-on to run 527 for as many tries as he had. He had about a one-in-four chance of getting to 626 in as many tries as he took. Our results are different because a small change in the percentage per rack makes a large change in the long-run chances.

I think that players like Mosconi and Cranfield actually had even higher single-rack percentages.

Bob, so you disagree with my 90% chance estimate to execute a successful break shot with position on another ball to be able to continue the run, as well as my 90% chance estimate of running out that rack and getting to the next ideal break ball for the next rack? Just curious, just much higher than 90% chance for each of those two requirements necessary for a long run do you really think he had?

AtLarge 12-20-2019 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisinNC (Post 6542321)
... 90% to the 90th power or 81% (90% x 90%) to the 45th power. What you come up with is it likely happening one time in every roughly one quarter million (250,000) attempts! ...

Check your math.

ChrisinNC 12-20-2019 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Jewett (Post 6542337)
John was close to 25% to run another 100 starting from a typical position according to actual statistics on his runs. That's close to the odds for a single rack you quote. He was odds-on to run 527 for as many tries as he had. He had about a one-in-four chance of getting to 626 in as many tries as he took. Our results are different because a small change in the percentage per rack makes a large change in the long-run chances.

I think that players like Mosconi and Cranfield actually had even higher single-rack percentages.

Iím not far off Ė based on my percentile estimates, heíd have a 23% chance of a 100 ball run starting with an ideal break shot. The difference between 100 and 626 obviously is no comparison!

ChrisinNC 12-20-2019 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AtLarge (Post 6542362)
Check your math.

I stand by my numbers. Just curious, what do you have it coming out to?

ChrisinNC 12-20-2019 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Jewett (Post 6542337)
John was close to 25% to run another 100 starting from a typical position according to actual statistics on his runs. That's close to the odds for a single rack you quote. He was odds-on to run 527 for as many tries as he had. He had about a one-in-four chance of getting to 626 in as many tries as he took. Our results are different because a small change in the percentage per rack makes a large change in the long-run chances.

I think that players like Mosconi and Cranfield actually had even higher single-rack percentages.

Bob, I think you misread my percentages. Iíd have him at an 81% chance starting with an ideal break ball to get to the next rackís ideal break ball, or following the break shot, assuming he makes it and has a reasonable shot, a 90% chance of making it to the next rackís ideal break ball. Based on those odds, heíd have a 23% chance of making it to a 100 ball run, starting with an ideal break shot to start his run.

DynoDan 12-20-2019 11:41 AM

Assuming it’s a given that one of the world’s top 14.1 players on the best equipment (level, fast cloth, generous pockets, etc.) will run out from an easy first shot, the ‘record’ issue in my mind is: how many racks can you break in a row (from an ideal breakball position) and end up with a makable shot? Break-rerack-break-rerack, and on & on, even if the breakball bobbles in the pocket (though obviously then not in play), the attempt continues until whitey is stuck with no shot. I’ll bet no one would ever get close to 45 again in our lifetime (?).

AtLarge 12-20-2019 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisinNC (Post 6542404)
I stand by my numbers. Just curious, what do you have it coming out to?

(0.9) ^ 90 = .00007618

or 1 in 13,127

not 1 in 250,000

Bob Jewett 12-20-2019 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AtLarge (Post 6542558)
(0.9) ^ 90 = .00007618

or 1 in 13,127

not 1 in 250,000

And 1/(0.91^90) = 1 in 4856 so the assumptions are critical.


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