Most impressive aspect of Schmit’s Record Run

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
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As a player who has played 14.1 for nearly 50 years, with a personal high run of 7 racks
accomplished 20 years ago and still not giving up trying to break that century mark despite my advancing years, I’d like to offer my opinion as to the most impressive aspect of John’s 626 - 45 consecutive rack run.

To me, it is unquestionably how unlikely it is for anyone to successfully set up and execute 45 consecutive beginning of the rack break shots - managing to not only avoid scratching but leaving himself a high percentage shot after that to continue his run. That is, for myself, without a doubt, the one most common cause of ending my attempts to be able to successfully string 14.1 racks together.

More impressive than the obvious unworldly skills needed to run 45 consecutive racks, those 45 out of 45 successful break shots, leaving himself at least a reasonable shot every single time, in my opinion is not only incredible and extremely unlikely to occur for anyone, but I would venture to say lucky and extremely unlikely to ever be surpassed, even for the very best players in the world! Opinions?
 

sjm

Older and Wiser
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I'm inclined to agree.

In a typical rack, it is the break shot that entails the greatest risk (and, as you correctly point out, sometimes some luck) to the player, as the shot tends to be missable and the final cue ball position is harder to predict than on other shots. To have made that many break shots in a row and to have found at least some shape onto the next ball every time is, as you suggest, truly remarkable.
 
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DynoDan

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
As a player who has played 14.1 for nearly 50 years, with a personal high run of 7 racks
accomplished 20 years ago and still not giving up trying to break that century mark despite my advancing years, I’d like to offer my opinion as to the most impressive aspect of John’s 626 - 45 consecutive rack run.

To me, it is unquestionably how unlikely it is for anyone to successfully set up and execute 45 consecutive beginning of the rack break shots - managing to not only avoid scratching but leaving himself a high percentage shot after that to continue his run. That is, for myself, without a doubt, the one most common cause of ending my attempts to be able to successfully string 14.1 racks together.

More impressive than the obvious unworldly skills needed to run 45 consecutive racks, those 45 out of 45 successful break shots, leaving himself at least a reasonable shot every single time, in my opinion is not only incredible and extremely unlikely to occur for anyone, but I would venture to say lucky and extremely unlikely to ever be surpassed, even for the very best players in the world! Opinions?

Chris,
BTW: Your bio sounds exactly like mine (still chasing the ‘100 ball runner’ label in my 70s).
I agree his run is a ‘one-in-a-million’ example of incredible luck, which is why I’m anxiously waiting (bated breath) for the DVD.
My (frustrating) experience with 14.1 suggests that breaking 45 racks without ending up hopelessly hooked, would be like going over Niagara Falls in an Iron Maiden and coming out without a scratch, or maybe shooting a hundred straight passes with honest dice!
 

AtLarge

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... Opinions?

My opinion is full agreement. I used to think (and say, in discussions) the same thing about Mosconi's 526 (or any other extremely long run). Mosconi's run had 37 beginning-of-rack break shots. Surviving that many break shots in a row, let alone 45, is just astonishing.
 

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
My opinion is full agreement. I used to think (and say, in discussions) the same thing about Mosconi's 526 (or any other extremely long run). Mosconi's run had 37 beginning-of-rack break shots. Surviving that many break shots in a row, let alone 45, is just astonishing.
I like math and stats, so just for kicks, I punched in some numbers to see what kind of odds we’re talking about this 626 ball run by John having happened. For this analysis, we have to make 2 assumptions which I feel are fairly accurate. Firstly, for a top experienced pro level 14.1 player, their chances even with a perfectly set up break shot are roughly 90% that they will successfully make the break shot and leave themself with a high percentage shot after the break shot. The second assumption is that once assumption 1 is accomplished, that player will then have roughly a 90% chance to completely run out that rack out and leave themselves with a high percentage break shot in to the next rack.

The mathematical chance of accomplishing both of these for 45 consecutive racks is reached by multiplying 90% to the 90th power or 81% (90% x 90%) to the 45th power. What you come up with is it likely happening one time in every roughly one quarter million (250,000) attempts! That’s the kind of odds Schmidy was up against of running 626 balls, and the odds anyone else will be up against if they are attempting to break that record, and that is only if they already possess the elite professional 14.1 skill set!
 

Bob Jewett

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I like math and stats, so just for kicks, I punched in some numbers to see what kind of odds we’re talking about this 626 ball run by John having happened. For this analysis, we have to make 2 assumptions which I feel are fairly accurate. Firstly, for a top experienced pro level 14.1 player, their chances even with a perfectly set up break shot are roughly 90% that they will successfully make the break shot and leave themself with a high percentage shot after the break shot. The second assumption is that once assumption 1 is accomplished, that player will then have roughly a 90% chance to completely run out that rack out and leave themselves with a high percentage break shot in to the next rack.

The mathematical chance of accomplishing both of these for 45 consecutive racks is reached by multiplying 90% to the 90th power or 81% (90% x 90%) to the 45th power. What you come up with is it likely happening one time in every roughly one quarter million (250,000) attempts! That’s the kind of odds Schmidy was up against of running 626 balls, and the odds anyone else will be up against if they are attempting to break that record, and that is only if they already possess the elite professional 14.1 skill set!

John was close to 25% to run another 100 starting from a typical position according to actual statistics on his runs. That's close to the odds for a single rack you quote. He was odds-on to run 527 for as many tries as he had. He had about a one-in-four chance of getting to 626 in as many tries as he took. Our results are different because a small change in the percentage per rack makes a large change in the long-run chances.

I think that players like Mosconi and Cranfield actually had even higher single-rack percentages.
 
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ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
John was close to 25% to run another 100 starting from a typical position according to actual statistics on his runs. That's close to the odds for a single rack you quote. He was odds-on to run 527 for as many tries as he had. He had about a one-in-four chance of getting to 626 in as many tries as he took. Our results are different because a small change in the percentage per rack makes a large change in the long-run chances.

I think that players like Mosconi and Cranfield actually had even higher single-rack percentages.
Bob, so you disagree with my 90% chance estimate to execute a successful break shot with position on another ball to be able to continue the run, as well as my 90% chance estimate of running out that rack and getting to the next ideal break ball for the next rack? Just curious, just much higher than 90% chance for each of those two requirements necessary for a long run do you really think he had?
 

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
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John was close to 25% to run another 100 starting from a typical position according to actual statistics on his runs. That's close to the odds for a single rack you quote. He was odds-on to run 527 for as many tries as he had. He had about a one-in-four chance of getting to 626 in as many tries as he took. Our results are different because a small change in the percentage per rack makes a large change in the long-run chances.

I think that players like Mosconi and Cranfield actually had even higher single-rack percentages.
I’m not far off – based on my percentile estimates, he’d have a 23% chance of a 100 ball run starting with an ideal break shot. The difference between 100 and 626 obviously is no comparison!
 

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
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John was close to 25% to run another 100 starting from a typical position according to actual statistics on his runs. That's close to the odds for a single rack you quote. He was odds-on to run 527 for as many tries as he had. He had about a one-in-four chance of getting to 626 in as many tries as he took. Our results are different because a small change in the percentage per rack makes a large change in the long-run chances.

I think that players like Mosconi and Cranfield actually had even higher single-rack percentages.
Bob, I think you misread my percentages. I’d have him at an 81% chance starting with an ideal break ball to get to the next rack’s ideal break ball, or following the break shot, assuming he makes it and has a reasonable shot, a 90% chance of making it to the next rack’s ideal break ball. Based on those odds, he’d have a 23% chance of making it to a 100 ball run, starting with an ideal break shot to start his run.
 

DynoDan

AzB Silver Member
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Assuming it’s a given that one of the world’s top 14.1 players on the best equipment (level, fast cloth, generous pockets, etc.) will run out from an easy first shot, the ‘record’ issue in my mind is: how many racks can you break in a row (from an ideal breakball position) and end up with a makable shot? Break-rerack-break-rerack, and on & on, even if the breakball bobbles in the pocket (though obviously then not in play), the attempt continues until whitey is stuck with no shot. I’ll bet no one would ever get close to 45 again in our lifetime (?).
 
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AtLarge

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And 1/(0.91^90) = 1 in 4856 so the assumptions are critical.

Right. Repeating what you said earlier: "... a small change in the percentage per rack makes a large change in the long-run chances." And didn't John say he tried about 4,000 times in those sessions?
 

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
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Chris -- about 1 in 250,000 would result from using .871 rather than .9.
I regret starting this thread, as it has now made me very depressed in regards to my chances of ever running 100 balls. Now looking at these power calculator tables, assuming my chances per rack are at 25%, which is likely an optimistic percentage, puts my chances of stringing together 7+ consecutive racks / 100 balls at less than 1 in 10,000. I guess I’m going to have to come up with a more realistically attainable goal.
 
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AtLarge

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:wink:
I regret starting this thread, as it has now made me very depressed in regards to my chances of ever running 100 balls. Now looking at these power calculator tables, assuming my chances per rack are at 25%, which is likely an optimistic percentage, puts my chances of stringing together 7+ consecutive racks / 100 balls at less than 1 in 10,000. I guess I’m going to have to come up with a more realistically attainable goal.

Yes, 1 in about 20,000. But don't give up. You're in your low 60's now, right? So 300 days a year for 20 years will give you 6,000 days to try. Just 3 or 4 attempts per day and you've got a good chance to do it! :wink:
 
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ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
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:wink:

Yes, 1 in about 20,000. But don't give up. You're in your low 60's now, right? So 300 days a year for 20 years will give you 6,000 days to try. Just 3 or 4 attempts per day and you've got a good chance to do it! :wink:
I appreciate your encouragement, but I would say my window is closing fast - I certainly need to get it done within the next five years. My biggest obstacle is the table I am attempting to do it on – a 10 foot table with 4-1/4 inch corner pocket openings. I know - don’t ask me why I’m torturing myself! My realistic goal on this table is 4 racks - 56 balls. I ran a 42 at the beginning of the year, but haven’t matched it since.
 
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