Break Stats -- CSI Invitational 10-Ball Championship, July 2014

AtLarge · Jul 20, 2014

Here are some break statistics from the 16-player 2014 CSI Invitational 10-Ball Championship played at the Rio Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas with pay-per-view streaming by CSI.

The conditions for this event included: Diamond 9-foot Pro-Am table with regular pro-cut pockets (4½" corners), Simonis 860 blue cloth, Magic Rack, Cyclop TV balls including the cue ball, referee racks with the 2- and 3-balls on the back corners, alternate breaks, break from anywhere behind the line, jump cues not allowed, cue-ball fouls only, WPA rules otherwise (call shot, 10-ball on the break spots).

The 15 streamed matches (232 games), amounting to 56% of the tournament total of 27 matches, were as follows. [Note: the only players in the event who did not appear on the primary streamed table were Warren Kiamco and Corey Deuel.]

Fri., July 18

S. Van Boening defeated T. Hohmann 9-7

D. Orcollo d. J-L Chang 9-7

P-C Ko d. E. Reyes 9-6

F. Bustamante d. Y-H Cheng 9-5

P-Y Ko d. T. Hohmann 9-7

Sat., July 19

J-L Chang d. D. Appleton 9-6

E. Reyes d. J. Morra 9-6

J. Shaw d. Y-H Cheng 9-5

P-Y Ko d. S. Van Boening 9-7

J-L Chang d. M. Dechaine 9-7

Sun., July 20

R. Souquet d. E. Reyes 9-4

J. Shaw d. F. Bustamante 9-7

P-Y Ko d. D. Orcollo 9-5 (Semi-Finals)

P-C Ko d. J. Shaw 9-7 (Semi-Finals)

P-Y Ko d. P-C Ko 11-9 (Finals)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball and did not foul 65% of the time (150 of 232), won 49% of the games (114 of 232), and broke and ran 21% of the games (49 of 232).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 232 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:

Breaker won the game: 86 (37% of the 232 games)

Breaker lost the game: 64 (28%)

Breaker fouled on the break:

Breaker won the game: 4 (2%)

Breaker lost the game: 13 (6%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):

Breaker won the game: 24 (10%)

Breaker lost the game: 41 (18%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 49% (114) of all 232 games,

He won 57% (86 of 150) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.

He won 24% (4 of 17) of the games in which he fouled on the break.

He won 37% (24 of 65) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.

He won 34% (28 of 82) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 49 break-and-run games (21% of all the games) consisted of 2 alternate-break 3-packs (one each by Van Boening and Shaw), 1 alternate-break 2-pack (by P-Y Ko), and 41 singles.

10-balls on the break: The 10-ball was made on the break 6 times (2.6% of the 232 breaks), and it was spotted rather than counting as a game win.

PoloBob · Jul 20, 2014

Thanks for the info.

An interesting read, no doubt.

AtLarge · Jul 21, 2014

Miscellany from the data for the 2014 CSI 10-Ball Championship
[Reminder -- this relates only to the 15 streamed matches, not all 27 matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was four, once each by Bustamante, Hohmann, P-Y Ko, Appleton, and Chang. The breaker lost 3 of those 5 games.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.2 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). Excluding dry breaks, the average was 1.7.

• Following the 17 breaking fouls, the incoming player ran out the game 11 times (65%).

• The losers won an average of 6.1 games in the 14 races to 9. Half of those matches ended at a score of 9-7. None of the matches went hill/hill. [And only one of the non-streamed matches went hill/hill.]

• The average elapsed time for the 14 races to 9 was 105 minutes, or 7.0 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and breaks (time-outs).

• The longest match in elapsed time was Orcollo def. Chang -- 141 minutes (8.8 minutes per game).

• The match with the highest average number of minutes per game was Souquet d. Reyes -- 9.5 minutes per game.

• The shortest match in elapsed time was P-Y Ko d. Orcollo -- 88 minutes (6.3 minutes per game).

• The match with the lowest average number of minutes per game was the finals, P-Y Ko d. P-C Ko -- 5.5 minutes per game.

• In the P-C Ko d. Reyes match, the breaker lost the last 11 games in a row.

Black-Balled · Jul 21, 2014

Good stuff, as always.

I don't understand them numbers an such, but looks like you learned us some smarts.

Careyp74 · Jul 22, 2014

Black-Balled said:
Good stuff, as always.

I don't understand them numbers an such, but looks like you learned us some smarts.

I added it all up and got rid of the unnecessary info for you. Basically, out of the 232 games that were played, 232 of them were won by either the breaker or the other guy.

One piece of data that might make the info more beneficial is the number of innings of the matches that weren't break and run or run out after a foul/no balls made.

Magog30 · Jul 22, 2014

Can we get a list comparing the breaks of the players? Who had the highest percent ball on the break without fouling?

BugHunter · Jul 22, 2014

I find it interesting, this is the second time I've seen stats which show the breaker in 10 ball actually is at a mathematical disadvantage. I've seen the same stats for 9 ball. Not by much, as this shows, but the fact that the break is not an advantage really seems odd.

I'd like to see the stats for 8 ball.

AtLarge · Jul 22, 2014

Careyp74 said:
I added it all up and got rid of the unnecessary info for you. Basically, out of the 232 games that were played, 232 of them were won by either the breaker or the other guy.

That'll save me some time and effort if I just report it that way in the future!

Careyp74 said:
One piece of data that might make the info more beneficial is the number of innings of the matches that weren't break and run or run out after a foul/no balls made.

You asked for it; here it is.

The 232 games in the 15 streamed matches ended in anywhere from 1 inning to 8 innings. For each number of innings, the following table shows how many games were won by the breaker in that number of innings, how many games were won by the non-breaker in that number of innings, the sum of those two numbers, and the percentage of the 232 games that were won in that number of innings.

1 inning -- 49 + 71 = 120 (52%)

2 innings -- 41 + 24 = 65 (28%)

3 innings -- 18 + 14 = 32 (14%)

4 innings -- 3 + 4 = 7 (3%)

5 innings -- 0 + 3 = 3 (1%)

6 innings -- 1 + 1 = 2 (1%)

7 innings -- 1 + 0 = 1 (0%)

8 innings -- 1 + 1 = 2 (1%)

Total -- 114 + 118 = 232 (100%)

As previously reported, the B&R percentage was 21% (49 out of 232). But the non-breaker ran out on his first inning 71 times. This represented 31% of the breaks. So the game ended in 1 inning in 52% of the games. 33 of those 71 first-inning run-outs by the non-breaker were following dry or fouled breaks, so the player at the table after the break ran out from there in 35% of the games (82 of 232).

The two stand-out matches in this regard were P-Y Ko def. Hohmann and P-C Ko def. Shaw. No game went beyond the second inning in either of those matches, and 12 of the 16 games in each match went just one inning.

AtLarge · Jul 22, 2014

Magog30 said:
Can we get a list comparing the breaks of the players? Who had the highest percent ball on the break without fouling?

Since we had 14 different players involved in the 15 streamed matches, the number of breaks for some of the players was quite small. Four players were streamed only once, five players twice, four players three times, and one player (P-Y Ko) four times. Nevertheless, here are the results you requested -- games in which at least one ball was made on the break without fouling:

Morra -- 7 of 7 (100%)

Souquet -- 5 of 6 (83%)

P-Y Ko -- 27 of 33 (82%)

Bustamante -- 12 of 15 (80%)

Shaw -- 17 of 23 (74%)

Chang -- 16 of 23 (70%)

Van Boening -- 11 of 16 (69%)

Appleton -- 5 of 8 (63%)

Dechaine -- 5 of 8 (63%)

Orcollo -- 9 of 15 (60%)

Hohmann -- 8 of 16 (50%)

P-C Ko -- 12 of 25 (48%)

Reyes -- 10 of 23 (43%)

Cheng -- 6 of 14 (43%)

Total -- 150 of 232 ( 65%)

AtLarge · Jul 22, 2014

BugHunter said:
I find it interesting, this is the second time I've seen stats which show the breaker in 10 ball actually is at a mathematical disadvantage. I've seen the same stats for 9 ball. Not by much, as this shows, but the fact that the break is not an advantage really seems odd.

The percentage of games won by the breaker in pro events is generally in the range of 45% - 60%. It can get much higher than that for the top players near the end of an event when they are dialed in on the break and running out a lot. It can also be influenced by matches involving a strong player and a weak player. A very lopsided match in a winner-breaks format obviously leads to a very high "breaker-won-game" percentage.

Despite the fact that the stats sometimes seem to indicate that it is no great advantage to be breaking, I doubt that many top players would want to give the break to an opponent coming down the stretch in a big event.

[Repeated from an older thread.]

BugHunter said:
I'd like to see the stats for 8 ball.

Here are some 8-Ball results from the past:

http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=339348
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=318179
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=284979
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=281587

BugHunter · Jul 22, 2014

AtLarge said:
Here are some 8-Ball results from the past:

http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=339348
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=318179
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=284979
http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=281587

Good stuff here. Looking at this through different glasses, I'd say that these stats are more telling of the influence the game has on it's own outcome more when the match goes hill-hill. In a match that tends to be lopsided, so are the stats. And as such, they're not as clear in telling how the situation influences the outcome. Thanks for the links however, great stuff. :thumbup:

AuntyDan · Jul 22, 2014

Thanks for your data! Comparing this to your stats from the 2014 WPA World 9-Ball it shows what most people already think; that 10-Ball is a more equal game with the break much less dominant than in 9-Ball. (61% of breakers winning in 9-Ball compared to 49% in 10-Ball)

The more interesting question is whether this is actually desirable. If the 10-Ball format really has neutralized the break advantage compared to 9-Ball, and given the very low number of innings per game indicating a high run-out probability, is there any point to breaking open any more? Will Pros start trying to develop safety breaks? Could they try to make 10-Ball more like Straight Pool, with an opening safety battle before one player gets an open shot and runs out.

Or to put it another way, the objective of any player when they step to the table should be to do whatever puts themselves in the highest-probability position to win the game. If Pros look at these stats and realize their 10-Ball break shot has the same probability of success as a coin-toss they will be trying to do anything they can to alter those odds in their favor.

AtLarge · Jul 22, 2014

AuntyDan said:
Thanks for your data! Comparing this to your stats from the 2014 WPA World 9-Ball it shows what most people already think; that 10-Ball is a more equal game with the break much less dominant than in 9-Ball. (61% of breakers winning in 9-Ball compared to 49% in 10-Ball)

Note that both of these events used the Magic Rack. But in 9-ball with a magic rack, the stay-at-table percentage after the break is so high (89% in Doha) that the breaker has many more opportunities for a B&R game (35% in Doha), and that raises the overall winning percentage for the breaker.

AuntyDan said:
The more interesting question is whether this is actually desirable. If the 10-Ball format really has neutralized the break advantage compared to 9-Ball, and given the very low number of innings per game indicating a high run-out probability, is there any point to breaking open any more? Will Pros start trying to develop safety breaks? Could they try to make 10-Ball more like Straight Pool, with an opening safety battle before one player gets an open shot and runs out.

Or to put it another way, the objective of any player when they step to the table should be to do whatever puts themselves in the highest-probability position to win the game. If Pros look at these stats and realize their 10-Ball break shot has the same probability of success as a coin-toss they will be trying to do anything they can to alter those odds in their favor.

But, so far at least, promoters and fans have been opposed to anything approaching that. When the soft 9-ball break gained favor a number of years ago, rules were put in place to thwart it by requiring a certain number of balls past the side pockets or the head string, for example.

I doubt that we'll be seeing safety breaks in the rotation games anytime soon.

The Mosconi Cup solution in 2013 was pretty interesting, however.

Careyp74 · Jul 23, 2014

AtLarge said:
That'll save me some time and effort if I just report it that way in the future!

You asked for it; here it is.

The 232 games in the 15 streamed matches ended in anywhere from 1 inning to 8 innings. For each number of innings, the following table shows how many games were won by the breaker in that number of innings, how many games were won by the non-breaker in that number of innings, the sum of those two numbers, and the percentage of the 232 games that were won in that number of innings.

1 inning -- 49 + 71 = 120 (52%)
2 innings -- 41 + 24 = 65 (28%)
3 innings -- 18 + 14 = 32 (14%)
4 innings -- 3 + 4 = 7 (3%)
5 innings -- 0 + 3 = 3 (1%)
6 innings -- 1 + 1 = 2 (1%)
7 innings -- 1 + 0 = 1 (0%)
8 innings -- 1 + 1 = 2 (1%)

Total -- 114 + 118 = 232 (100%)

As previously reported, the B&R percentage was 21% (49 out of 232). But the non-breaker ran out on his first inning 71 times after a dry or fouled break. This represented 31% of the breaks. So the game ended in 1 inning in 52% of the games.

The two stand-out matches in this regard were P-Y Ko def. Hohmann and P-C Ko def. Shaw. No game went beyond the second inning in either of those matches, and 12 of the 16 games in each match went just one inning.

Thanks. My suspicion seems to be right then (didn't mention it yet until I saw the info) In 10 ball it might be beneficial to trade a more powerful break where you could foul easier, resulting in a higher advantage for the non-breaker, for a more controlled break, where you might not make any balls.

I think the ball in hand advantage is what is skewing the numbers higher for non breakers winning after foul, yet still seeing breakers winning a lot more in two innings.

spartan · Jul 23, 2014

AtLarge said:
Since we had 14 different players involved in the 15 streamed matches, the number of breaks for some of the players was quite small. Four players were streamed only once, five players twice, four players three times, and one player (P-Y Ko) four times. Nevertheless, here are the results you requested -- games in which at least one ball was made on the break without fouling:

Morra -- 7 of 7 (100%)
Souquet -- 5 of 6 (83%)
P-Y Ko -- 27 of 33 (82%)
Bustamante -- 12 of 15 (80%)
Shaw -- 17 of 23 (74%)
Chang -- 16 of 23 (70%)
Van Boening -- 11 of 16 (69%)

Appleton -- 5 of 8 (63%)
Dechaine -- 5 of 8 (63%)
Orcollo -- 9 of 15 (60%)
Hohmann -- 8 of 16 (50%)
P-C Ko -- 12 of 25 (48%)
Reyes -- 10 of 23 (43%)
Cheng -- 6 of 14 (43%)

Total -- 150 of 232 ( 65%)

Thanks for stats. It shows Ko Pin Yi is by far the most successful breaker since sample size of less than 10 (i.e. Morra and Ralf ) is too small.

Break Stats -- CSI Invitational 10-Ball Championship, July 2014

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