Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, Jan. 2017

AtLarge · Jan 23, 2017

Here are some break statistics from the 2017 Derby City Classic's Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge played January 20-23, 2017 at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event won by defending champion Jayson Shaw.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:

- Diamond 10-foot table with standard pro-cut pockets (4½" corners) and Simonis 860 cloth;

- Cyclop TV balls with the red-spot cue ball;

- Accu-Rack Pro-10 racking template;

- rack your own (1-ball on the spot, 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners) and winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;

- jump cues not allowed;

- foul on all balls;

- all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break); and

- 40-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack.

The event's 15 matches (276 games), all of which were streamed from the same table, were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream:

Fri., Jan. 20 (Round 1)

Skyler Woodward (.846) defeated John Gabriel (.775) 11-5

Lee Vann Corteza (.895) d. Johann Chua (.883) 11-10

Dennis Orcollo (.826) d. Shane Van Boening (.781) 11-9

Jayson Shaw (.951 -- best of the event) d. Nick Ekonomopoulos (.607) 11-1

Sat., Jan. 21 (Round 1, continued)

Thorsten Hohmann (.931) d. Karl Boyes (.833) 11-6

Alex Kazakis (.908) d. Alex Pagulayan (.820) 11-5

Fedor Gorst (.809) d. Darren Appleton (.803) 11-10

Carlo Biado (.828) d. Ruslan Chinakhov (.728) 11-8 [The stats exclude 1 game I missed.]

Sun., Jan. 22 (Round 2)

Corteza (.868) d. Woodward (.800) 11-7

Shaw (.912) d. Orcollo (.839) 11-7

Kazakis (.844) d. Hohmann (.744) 11-6

Biado (.833) d. Gorst (.813) 11-10

Mon., Jan. 23 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semifinals and finals)

Shaw (.839) d. Corteza (.865) 11-10

Kazakis (.841) d. Biado (.791) 11-10

Shaw (.911) d. Kazakis (.838) 11-7

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 66% of the time (181 of 275), won 51% of the games (141 of 275), and broke and ran 21% of the games (59 of 275).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 275 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:

Breaker won the game: 102 (37% of the 275 games)

Breaker lost the game: 79 (29%)

Breaker fouled on the break:

Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)

Breaker lost the game: 14 (5%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):

Breaker won the game: 37 (13%)

Breaker lost the game: 41 (15%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 51% (141 of 275) of all games,

He won 56% (102 of 181) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.

He won 13% (2 of 16) of the games in which he fouled on the break.

He won 47% (37 of 78) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.

He won 41% (39 of 94) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 59 break-and-run games represented 21% of all 275 games, 42% of the 141 games won by the breaker, and 33% of the 181 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 59 break-and-run games consisted of 1 six-pack (Shaw), 1 four-pack (Kazakis), 1 three-pack (Shaw), 5 two-packs (Woodward, Shaw twice, Biado, and Gorst), and 36 singles.

10-balls on the break -- No 10-balls were made on the break.

AtLarge · Jan 23, 2017

Miscellany from the data for the 2017 Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge:

• The most balls made on a single break was 5, done just once -- by Shaw. He lost the game.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.1 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5.

• 41% (114 of 275) of the games ended in one inning – 21% (59) won by the breaker (B&R) and 20% (55) won by the non-breaker. 16% (45 of 275) of the games lasted 4 or more innings. One game went 11 innings (22 visits) and another went 12 innings (23 visits).

• 29% (79 of 275) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 33% (59 of 181)

- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 69% (11 of 16)

- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 12% (9 of 78)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

- Won the game in that same inning 47% of the time (128 of 274)

- Won the game in a later inning 18% of the time (49 of 274)

- Lost the game 35% of the time (97 of 274)

[Note -- total games used here are 274 rather than 275 to eliminate a 3-foul game in which no ball was made after the break.]

• The loser won an average of 7.4 games in these races to 11. Five matches went to hill/hill; the fewest games won in a match was 1 (once), and the next fewest was 5 (twice).

• The longest match in elapsed time, at 192 minutes, was Kazakis d. Biado 11-10. The shortest match in elapsed time, at 61 minutes, was Shaw d. Ekonomopoulos 11-1. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts. These two matches were also the ones that were highest and lowest in average minutes per game, at 9.1 and 5.1.

• The average elapsed time for these 15 races to 11 was 120 minutes, averaging 6.5 minutes per game.

• Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 17 games, other fouls 1 for every 4 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.3 games.

• About 43% of the games involved one or more safeties.

jay helfert · Jan 23, 2017

AtLarge said:
Here are some break statistics from the 2017 Derby City Classic's Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge played January 20-23, 2017 at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event won by defending champion Jayson Shaw.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 10-foot table with standard pro-cut pockets (4½" corners) and Simonis 860 cloth;
- Cyclop TV balls with the red-spot cue ball;
- Accu-Rack Pro-10 racking template;
- rack your own (1-ball on the spot, 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners) and winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- jump cues not allowed;
- foul on all balls;
- all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break); and
- 40-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack.

The event's 15 matches (276 games), all of which were streamed from the same table, were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream:

Fri., Jan. 20 (Round 1)

Skyler Woodward (.846) defeated John Gabriel (.775) 11-5
Lee Vann Corteza (.895) d. Johann Chua (.883) 11-10
Dennis Orcollo (.826) d. Shane Van Boening (.781) 11-9
Jayson Shaw (.951 -- best of the event) d. Nick Ekonomopoulos (.607) 11-1

Sat., Jan. 21 (Round 1, continued)

Thorsten Hohmann (.931) d. Karl Boyes (.833) 11-6
Alex Kazakis (.908) d. Alex Pagulayan (.820) 11-5
Fedor Gorst (.809) d. Darren Appleton (.803) 11-10
Carlo Biado (.828) d. Ruslan Chinakhov (.728) 11-8 [The stats exclude 1 game I missed.]

Sun., Jan. 22 (Round 2)

Corteza (.868) d. Woodward (.800) 11-7
Shaw (.912) d. Orcollo (.839) 11-7
Kazakis (.844) d. Hohmann (.744) 11-6
Biado (.833) d. Gorst (.813) 11-10

Mon., Jan. 23 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semifinals and finals)

Shaw (.839) d. Corteza (.865) 11-10
Kazakis (.841) d. Biado (.791) 11-10
Shaw (.911) d. Kazakis (.838) 11-7

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 66% of the time (181 of 275), won 51% of the games (141 of 275), and broke and ran 21% of the games (59 of 275).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 275 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:

Breaker won the game: 102 (37% of the 275 games)

Breaker lost the game: 79 (29%)

Breaker fouled on the break:

Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)

Breaker lost the game: 14 (5%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):

Breaker won the game: 37 (13%)

Breaker lost the game: 41 (15%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 51% (141 of 275) of all games,

He won 56% (102 of 181) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.

He won 13% (2 of 16) of the games in which he fouled on the break.

He won 47% (37 of 78) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.

He won 41% (39 of 94) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 59 break-and-run games represented 21% of all 275 games, 42% of the 141 games won by the breaker, and 33% of the 181 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 59 break-and-run games consisted of 1 six-pack (Shaw), 1 four-pack (Kazakis), 1 three-pack (Shaw), 5 two-packs (Woodward, Shaw twice, Biado, and Gorst), and 36 singles.

10-balls on the break -- No 10-balls were made on the break.

Great stats here! Looks like Shaw averaged about .900 for the entire tournament. Pretty damn sporty on that tough ass 10' table!

AtLarge · Jan 23, 2017

jay helfert said:
Great stats here! Looks like Shaw averaged about .900 for the entire tournament. Pretty damn sporty on that tough ass 10' table!

Thanks.

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's

Shaw -- .903 (for 4 TPA's)
Rest of field -- .821 (for 26)
Total -- .832 (for 30)

I'll try to do some more Shaw vs. the rest of the field comparisons later.

PoolBum · Jan 23, 2017

AtLarge said:
Thanks.

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's

Shaw -- .903 (for 4 TPA's)
Rest of field -- .821 (for 26)
Total -- .832 (for 30)

I'll try to do some more Shaw vs. the rest of the field comparisons later.

Thanks for the great stats!

So, .903 is the average of Shaw's 4 TPA's for the event, but do we have his actual TPA counting all balls pocketed and errors for the event?

AtLarge · Jan 23, 2017

PoolBum said:
Thanks for the great stats!

So, .903 is the average of Shaw's 4 TPA's for the event, but do we have his actual TPA counting all balls pocketed and errors for the event?

Nope, I can't do an aggregate TPA because I do not have the number of balls pocketed and the number of errors for all the matches. The mean of the TPA's is likely to be a little (but probably not greatly) different from the aggregate TPA.

There was, however, a .607 TPA in the calculation, based on very few balls pocketed. So that one is being weighted more heavily than it should be.

skip100 · Jan 24, 2017

That's a lot of dry breaks.

AtLarge · Jan 24, 2017

Even though the numbers are small, here are the break-and-run results for each player.

Gabriel (1 match) -- 0 B&R out of 6 breaks = 0%
Chua (1 match) -- 1 of 10 = 10%
Van Boening (1 match) -- 2 of 9 = 22%
Ekonomopoulos (1 match) -- 0 of 2 = 0%
Boyes (1 match) -- 2 of 6 = 33%
Pagulayan (1 match) -- 1 of 5 = 20%
Appleton (1 match) -- 1 of 11 = 9%
Chinakhov (1 match) -- 1 of 7 = 14%

Woodward (2 matches) -- 3 of 18 = 17%
Orcollo (2 matches) -- 4 of 18 = 22%
Hohmann (2 matches) -- 4 of 18 = 22%
Gorst (2 matches) -- 2 of 21 = 10%

Corteza (3 matches) -- 4 of 32 = 13%
Biado (3 matches) -- 7 of 31 = 23%

Kazakis (4 matches) -- 11 of 40 = 28%
Shaw (4 matches) -- 16 of 41 = 39%

Total -- 59 of 275 = 21%

As mentioned in post #1, the 59 break-and-run games consisted of 1 six-pack (Shaw), 1 four-pack (Kazakis), 1 three-pack (Shaw), 5 two-packs (Woodward, Shaw twice, Biado, and Gorst), and 36 singles.

AtLarge · Jan 24, 2017

How did Jayson Shaw do (other than winning the tournament) compared to the rest of the field?

Successful Breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

Shaw -- 73% (30 of 41)

Rest of field -- 65% (151 of 234)

Total -- 66% (181 of 275)

Breaker won game:

Shaw -- 66% (27 of 41)

Rest of field -- 49% (114 of 234)

Total -- 51% (141 of 275)

Break-and-run games on all breaks:

Shaw -- 39% (16 of 41)

Rest of field -- 18% (43 of 234)

Total -- 21% (59 of 275)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks:

Shaw -- 53% (16 of 30)

Rest of field -- 28% (43 of 151)

Total -- 33% (59 of 181)

Break-and-run games as % of games won by breaker:

Shaw -- 59% (16 of 27)

Rest of field -- 38% (43 of 114)

Total -- 42% (59 of 141)

Average number of balls pocketed on all breaks:

Shaw -- 1.5

Rest of field -- 1.0

Total -- 1.1

Average number of balls pocketed on successful breaks:

Shaw -- 1.8

Rest of field -- 1.5

Total -- 1.5

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's

Shaw -- .903 (for 4 TPA's)

Rest of field -- .821 ( for 26)

Total -- .832 (for 30)

[Note -- The mean of the TPA's for more than one match is likely to be a little different from the single, aggregate TPA calculated for those same matches. But I do not have the numerators and denominators for all the TPA's to do an aggregate TPA for more than one match.]

AtLarge · Jan 24, 2017

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's:

• for the 15 match winners -- .869 (last year .878)

• for the 15 match losers -- .795 (last year .822)

• Total (all 30 TPA's) -- .832 (last year .850)

[Again, these mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPA's calculated for each of these 3 groups.]

AtLarge · Jan 24, 2017

The Finals:

Shaw broke 10 times:

• No breaking fouls

• 1 dry break

• 9 wet breaks, making (in order) 1, 1, 5, 3, 3, 1, 1, 4, and 2 balls (total of 21)

• 7 game wins on his break, 5 of which were B&R's

Kazakis broke 8 times:

• No breaking fouls

• 3 dry breaks

• 5 wet breaks, making (in order) 1, 2, 1, 2, and 2 balls (total of 8)

• 4 game wins on his break, 2 of which were B&R's

AtLarge · Jan 25, 2017

Here are the B&R percentages by number of balls made on the break:

Made 1 ball on break, ran out 34% of the time (39 of 114)
2 balls -- 22% (10 of 45)
3 balls -- 35% (6 of 17)
4 balls -- 100% (4 of 4)
5 balls -- 0% (0 of 1)

Total -- 33% -- (59 of 181 successful breaks)

[These counts are too small to generalize conclusions.]

AtLarge · Jan 25, 2017

AtLarge said:
Here are the B&R percentages by number of balls made on the break:

Made 1 ball on break, ran out 34% of the time (39 of 114)
2 balls -- 22% (10 of 45)
3 balls -- 35% (6 of 17)
4 balls -- 100% (4 of 4)
5 balls -- 0% (0 of 1)

Total -- 33% -- (59 of 181 successful breaks)

[These counts are too small to generalize conclusions.]

To add to the sample size here, I combined results from the last three Bigfoot events. [Excludes 1 match I did not watch in 2015.]

B&R percentages by number of balls made on the break, for 2015-2017 Bigfoot events, combined:

Made 1 ball on break, -- ran out 29% of the time (85 of 294)
2 balls -- 35% (38 of 109)
3 balls -- 41% (21 of 51)
4 or 5 balls -- 80% (8 of 10)

On all successful breaks -- 33% (152 of 464)

Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, Jan. 2017

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