Some other posts have got me thinking. People say Filler beats Shane because it is a race to 5 alternate break. Make it winner break and Filler can't win.
Do you think USA would do better if Mosconi was winner breaks instead of alternate? Singles matches today have been very lopsided so far.
Contrary to what a lot of uninformed people think, in and of itself winner breaks or alternate breaks has no affect whatsoever on who wins and how often. It does however affect how much they win by, with alternate breaks making for closer scoring matches.
How can something bring score lines closer together without affecting who wins how often you might ask? It is difficult to explain but essentially alternate breaks just decreases--for both players--the amount of points that each turn at the table is worth on average over time. Conversely, winner breaks increases--for both players--the amount of points that each turn at the table is worth on average over time.
Think of it as being akin to decreasing the point values in say basketball, where if you made regular baskets worth one point each, "three pointers" worth 1.5 points each, and free throws worth .5 points each. It would never change who won, or how often they won, but it would make the score lines closer.
That said, there is some chance that one format or the other could have some psychological affect on a player. Alternate breaks comes with a lot more pressure (which is a good thing IMO, especially in higher level competition), and some people handle pressure better than others. On a side note, if if humans were being logical and rational, alternate breaks shouldn't come with any more pressure, since it doesn't change who wins how often, but the reality is that we aren't always the most rational and most players feel a lot more pressure under the alternate breaks format.
It could also be possible that one of the formats, usually for illogical reasons with no basis in reality, gets in certain player's heads and causes them to either have increased or decreased confidence which in turn ends up affecting the quality of their play either positively or negatively, but in and of itself there is no difference between the two and the same person will win the same amount of time with either format, psychological impacts aside.
