How to find out, how far away is your high run goal .

these are the 100+ runs provided by Bull Shooters

High Run Summary (100+)
Day Date Daily High Runs Over 100 Balls
Wednesday 03/20/19 179 146 132 127 384
Thursday 03/21/19 119 145 108 100 228
Friday 03/22/19 Rest Day
Saturday 03/23/19 Rest Day

Sunday 03/24/19 197 141 156 141 164
Monday 03/25/19 141 193 140 112
Tuesday 03/26/19 106 154 183 114
Wednesday 03/27/18 125 141 141 110
Thursday 03/28/19 197 190 113
Friday 03/29/19 Rest Day
Saturday 03/30/19 Rest Day

Sunday 03/31/19 138 144 175 168
Monday 04/01/19 106 111 293 113
Tuesday 04/02/19 100 141 175 120 227 123
Wednesday 04/03/19 204 114 176
Thursday 04/04/19 108 180 113
Friday 04/05/19 113 154 (Only 2 hours of play)

Sunday 04/07/19 283 350
Monday 04/08/19 134 - finished day 14
Tuesday 04/09/19 150 390
Wednesday 04/10/19 224 112
Thursday 04/11/19 127 106 169 140
Friday 04/12/19 237 104


Saturday 04/13/19 126 124 (Short Day 19)
Sunday 04/14/19 210+ (Continues on Monday)
Monday 04/15/19 395 210 127 132 320
Tuesday 04/16/19 168 148 190 108 450
Wednesday 04/17/19 172 169 169

11524 balls in 68 runs using the 100+ runs data from Bull Shooters
4724 substacting 100 from every run
4.96 average racks per inning

ChrisinNC said:

However, in a 3 hour practice session, always starting with a relatively high percentage break shot following a miss, in 20-25 total chances (innings) I generally average 8-10 balls per attempt, have 3-4 runs of 28 and a run of 42 maybe once every other session.

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Thank you for providing your data. I find it interesting to play with these numbers and test my theory.

As Dan White noted it's key to get to good key balls and break balls at the end of the rack and not to miss your break shots having an easy rack to continue. To account for this I changed may tracking system to count the 60+ 46+ 32+ and 18+ (This way I have to get though the rack with a solid break shot and get 3 more balls to be on the safe side that I am now in the middle of the next rack)

This way 15-17 balls counts same as 0 and 28 counts same as 18. From your data you seem good in running open tables with an average of 8-10 balls but lots of runs end with a break shot or a tough shot after the break shot. Since you start your runs with a high percentage break shot you have much higher chances of getting through the first rack but it gets much tougher to create a high percentage break shot after first rack and much harder still to get 2 in a row to get 42 balls. So with your data I would estimate your numbers are more in the area of 1/4 to 1/5 to get to the second rack but only around 1/8 to 1/10 to get from second to third.

This could be explained, that after a good high percentage starting break shot you have an easy open rack, are able to solve remaining problems fast and have nice pattern to the break shot more often (1/4 to 1/5) but after the second weaker break shot your problems with the rack get more and your chance getting through the next rack go down to 1/8.

42 every other session are about 1 of 8 tries making 28. And now some mental thing could really worsen the chances to get to the 4th rack (perhaps to 1/15). I think this mental problem would go away by itself if you could improve your chances of getting through the racks more often and automatically be more often in the position to have an easy third rack to prepare for an easy 4th rack to go for 56.

So with your actual data I would say you are about 5 x 8^6 = 1.310.000 attempts or 52 000 training sessions away from you first 100. And the rare chances to get to 4th or every farther rack could even worsen your chances still. Your next 56 could be about 20 to 30 training sessions away.

So instead of just trying to put more innings in and hoping for a miraculously 60 you could focus more on reaching 18 and 32 more often and start your run with an average break shot (one you will often have in the middle of your run also). Your goal now is to get to 18 every 4th time and to 32 every training session. If you manage this, you know you are on your path for a soon 60 and a 100 gets realistic. This way you train harder break shots more often, you have to deal with harder rack in your first rack more often and you could work on improving your break shots or end pattern to improve your chances to get to an easy second rack. Every training session you manage 2 or more 32+ you know you are really getting closer to your 100.

And this is why for me this tool for calculating your chances to reach 100 was so helpful. It provides you with small goals you can work on every session. Instead of one far goal (the 100) that is incredibly far away in the future and you don't even have a way to measure how far exactly. Now you know: I have to reach 2 or more 32+ every 25 innings. It's a reachable goal and if I improve my game enough to do it, I know, I am getting closer to my goal of 100.

How much closer? For this a little more data is helpful. If after 4 sessions and 100 innings I managed 9 32+ than I already should have around 3 46+ and perhaps even one 60+. So I know my system is working, I am on my way to a 100 and this 100 is only about 88 training sessions away

The lengthy response was also, because I think others could profit from my answer . I think most straight pool players want to be shooting 100s one day. This is a huge milestone in a career of a straight pool player. With this math I am providing smaller goals to get to the level to be able to shoot 100. Goals you could work on every day.

ChrisinNC said:

Bottom line is the large majority of all 14.1 players will never run 100 regardless of how many tries they make. If you can't run 42+ at least once every 3 hour practice session and run 56+ at least once every 3-4 practice sessions, I don't realistically think you have much chance to run 100, unless you can continue to improve these high run percentages. At my age, 63, I've accepted that it's not going to happen for me.

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yes, the math gives me a clearer picture, how tough an accomplishment it ist to shoot 100 or 200 or 626.

And it also says that one player can get lucky and shoot 100 once but never get close to repeating his run ever again in his life.

Like with an 1/8 chance to get through the rack you could need on average 100 000 training sessions to shoot 100, but for 10 000 players playing pool on same level one would probably manage a run this high in 2 weeks.

That's why John Schmidt says in his Interview he has much more respect for a player shooting 50+ every month when for a player who managed 100 once in his lifetime.

And it gives me a clearer picture how big an achievment John's 626 were and how good the top players really are.

Like Ralph Eckert was one of the 5 best straight pool players in Germany. I would estimate his chances for 100 in his best years about 1/8 to 1/10. He can get lucky and beat every other player in a tournament with race to 125 but he would need 300 years to achieve 626, something John Shmidt could probably repeat in 2 months.

Playing short races to 125 all these top players seem so close in their ability
but after 1000 high run attempts...

Just from my guts I would estimate in their top form a chance for running 100 from open shot:

Thorsten Hohmann 1:2.3 (from his tournament where he shot 125 and out on first attempt in 4 out of 8 matches managing for the whole tournament 20 innings for 8 matches and 1000 points with 8 of the innings ending because he reached 125 and won the game)
Thomas Engert 1:2.8
John Shmidt 1:3
Niels Feijen 1:4
Oliver Ortmann 1:5
...
Ralph Eckert 1:8

close on first glance but to reach 630 (with above guessed chances)

Thorsten Hohmann 190 attempts
Thomas Engert 650 attempts
John Shmidt 1000 attempts
Niels Feijen 6200 attempts
Oliver Ortmann 25 000 attempts
...
Ralph Eckert 1:8 500 000 attempts


and quite a gap to other pros. But this is definitely not a complete list - just the players I happened to watch playing straight pool. If some pros would really put their mind into straight pool, there are sure some more with the technical abilities to get there - but they would have to put in around 20.000-40.000 racks of straight pool to get there. Or 5000-1000 thousands of training hours.

In his career best straight pool form I think he could expect to shoot 630 within a month, all the factors like motivation and concentration to run 400+ neglected.

I don't know Thorsten or his actual straight pool game this good. It definitely takes some time to get in straight pool mode. John said he was playing a different (and much better) straight pool game to the end of his world record attempts when 5 months before. And his runs seemed to get better. He was starting to shoot 300+ really often...

But from the hours put into straight pool already and the knowledge behind the game - yes, I think Thorsten has the best shot to break the world record in the shortest time needed if he wantedt to.

Within a month is a high reach. It takes lots of stamina and dedication to go for a high run 8 hours a day every day, even for just a month. And after skidding after 390 balls just racking them up again and try again... For John Schmidt it was a life goal, for Thorsten it is probably not. I think his straight pool world champion titles are worth more to him.

But then again, with my tracking system he could find out really easy, if he is on the track to reach 630 and if he is enjoying playing straight pool 6-8 hours a day every day. He would see how his concentration holds up after 4-6 hours, how frequently he is shooting 200+ and 300+ and see a day to day improvement and how many tries on average he would need to get to 630.

To get live witnesses for the whole time going for the recod is probably a problem. But then it will get questioned anyway if the witnesses are trustworthy... Just recording every run is really easy (I am doing it myself every training session . 128GB card for 20$ will record 50 hours straight in 720 resolution. After the training session you can copy it on a harddrive and have your SD card empty for next day) Going for new world record I would use two camcorders from two angles so at any given time at least from one camcorder you can see all the balls. So you just need 2 camcorders set up and Thorsten has one already (he posts some runs or drills on facebook and youtube).

There is a huge discussion here in the forum, why Johns run could be shady or there could be problems with the video (since it is not available to the public) - so I think a video proof would be enough to be accepted by the pool world.

I don't think someone tried and broke the record and keeps it to himself (sounds like absolutely crazy idea to me) - but I can imaginge that for a world champion some additional incentive is needed to try to break the record than just the bragging rights to have done so. If Thorsten could negotiate a deal to get 50 000 $ for breaking the world record - why doing it for free. Usain Bolt would't run a new world record if price wasn't right even if he was able to.

But then again just doing a voice-over and selling the run as ppv will probably bring a few thousands so since all the big tournaments are on hold, I would go for a try (if I were Thorsten). At least just to see how close I am to the form needed.

xradarx said:

526 to 626 took seventy-five years to increase by 100! Good Luck with Your Quests, all!

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the four-minute mile was thought to be impossible to break for decades. Then after one runner did it and showed the world, that it was possible - now the "four minute barrier" has since been broken by over1400 male athletes.

Any young player putting their mind to break this record can do it. It's a great achievement but not an impossible one. And everything that John did to reach it is out there to duplicate for yourself.

It obviosly needs love and dedication for straight pool, you'll need about 10 000 hours of deliberate practice to get to the level needed. But with all the learning tools and great straight pool players available on tape, you have all the information needed.

Dan White said:

There is one fallacy in these mathematical discussions and the ability for someone to beat 626. If we calculate that it will take me 400 years playing every day I would say that after about 200 years I would become the greatest straight pool player in the history of the game. 1000 balls would be child's play. :wink:

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You are right, I would even say that after 10 years you would already become a great enough player to break the record. Going for the run day after day will make you better. It improved Johns straight pool game...:smile:

i don't see it as a fallacy though, you have a way to measure your improvement on the way and see how your goal gets closer.

You start out with shooting 42 every other week, than you shoot 50+ regularly, than you shoot your first 100+, than you shoot 100 almost every day, than you can bet your life on shooting 100 every day, than you shoot your first 400, than you start shooting 200+ almost every day, than you shoot 626 and change your name to Mr. 600...

easy game (takes about 20-25 years to repeat under same conditions - but I think it's easier now with all the information available, so perhaps a little under 15 years :grin

I started the thread, because before I had no clue how far I am away from my goal and what steps I would have to take to get there. I thought I am already a good enough player to shoot 100, no idea why I never came close. I shot 2 60+ last year in a tournament, my high run is about 73. I had multiple matches with an average score over 10 (like match to 125 in 10-11 innings or match to 100 in 8 innings). I had no clue where I stand on the path to 100.

Now I know the milestones needed to get there and I can measure my process and see where I am standing and how fast I am moving. I have an understanding now, that it's not about shooting some random 61 balls once, but shooting 60 regularly, its about the number of attempts on average. I know now what level of play I have to deliver every training session to be a player that can shoot 100.

I know now that I am not good enough yet to shoot 100, but I can calculate, how much worse I am and have a way to measure how much better to get.

I will work on my goal and keep track of my success and can keep you posted if you are interested. I will definitely post my video of my first 100 no matter if you are interested or not

This will be such a high achievement - especially on my tough practice table - i will let the whole world know when I reach it