Break Stats -- 2016 WPA World 9-Ball Championship, August 2016

AtLarge · Aug 4, 2016

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2016 WPA World 9-Ball Championship played this week in Doha, Qatar, with free live streaming by Al Kass. [Note that the number of games tracked this year is rather small because of limited streaming.]

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:

- Wiraka 9-foot tables;

- Simonis 860 Tournament Blue cloth;

- Magic Rack racking template;

- Aramith Tournament balls with the measles cue ball;

- alternate breaks;

- the breaker racked for the first 3 of these matches and the referee racked for the last 3 (with breaker "touch ups" in one of them);

- the 9-ball was racked on the foot spot and the 2-ball at the back of the rack;

- break from anywhere behind the line;

- jump cues allowed;

- WPA rules (all slop counts, foul on all balls) except it is an illegal break unless at least 3 balls are pocketed or pass the head string.

Only 6 matches (105 games) were tracked, as that is all that were streamed by Al Kass:

Tues., August 2

Shane Van Boening defeated Warren Kiamco 11-7

Omar Al Shaheen d. Salah Al Remawi 11-4

Wed., August 3

Ping-Chung Ko d. Carlo Biado 11-9

Albin Ouschan d. Jayson Shaw 11-7

Thurs., August 4

Ouschan d. Alex Pagulayan 11-4 (semifinal)

Ouschan d. Van Boening 13-6 (finals)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not break illegally or foul) 71% of the time (75 of 105), won 56% of the games (59 of 105), and broke and ran 28% of the games (29 of 105).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 105 games.

Breaker broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul:

Breaker won the game: 47 (45% of the 105 games)

Breaker lost the game: 28 (27%)

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul, but broke illegally:

Breaker won the game: 2 (2%)

Breaker lost the game: 5 (5%)

Breaker fouled on the break:

Breaker won the game: 1 (1%)

Breaker lost the game: 4 (4%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling, but includes the 2 breaks that were both dry and illegal):

Breaker won the game: 9 (9%)

Breaker lost the game: 9 (9%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% (59) of all 105 games,

He won 63% (47 of 75) of the games in which he broke legally, made at least one ball on the break, and did not foul.

He won 29% (2 of 7) of the games in which he made at least one ball and did not foul, but broke illegally.

He won 20% (1 of 5) of the games in which he fouled on the break.

He won 50% (9 of 18) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.

He won 40% (12 of 30) of the games in which he either broke illegally, fouled on the break, or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 29 break-and-run games represented 28% of all 105 games, 49% of the 59 games won by the breaker, and 39% of the 75 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 29 break-and-run games consisted of 2 alternate-break 3-packs (by Shaw and Van Boening), 2 alternate-break 2-packs, and 19 singles.

9-balls on the break -- No 9-balls were made on the break. With the Magic Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.

AtLarge · Aug 4, 2016

Miscellany from the data for the 2016 WPA World 9-Ball Championship
[Unless stated otherwise, this relates only to the 6 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 3 times – twice by Biado (one break-and-run game and one loss) and once by Ouschan (a B&R).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.4 (this includes illegal, dry, and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul), the average was 1.7.

• 52% (55 of 105) of the games ended in one inning – 28% (29 games) won by the breaker (B&R) and 25% (26 games) won by the non-breaker. 11% (12 of 105) of the games lasted more than 3 innings. The longest was 8 innings.

• 39% (41 of 105) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 39% (29 of 75)

By the non-breaker after illegal breaks -- 43% (3 of 7)

By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 80% (4 of 5)

By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 28% (5 of 18)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

- Won the game in that same inning 72% of the time (76 of 105)

- Won the game in a later inning 8% of the time (8 of 105)

- Lost the game 20% of the time (21 of 105)

• For the 5 races to 11 (single-elimination stage other than the finals), the loser won an average of 6.2 games. The comparable number for all 62 of the tournament's races to 11 was 6.9 games.

• Fargo Favorites -- The player with the higher Fargo Rating at the start of the match won 33% (2 of 6) of the streamed matches (assumes Al Remawi's rating would be lower than Al Shaheen's). Ouschan was the lower-rated player in each of his 3 appearances on stream.

• The average elapsed time for the 5 races to 11 was 113 minutes, averaging 6.6 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match highest in average minutes per game, at 7.4, was Ouschan d. Van Boening. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.7, was Ouschan d. Shaw.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 21 games, other fouls about 1 for every 5 1/2 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2 1/3 games.

• About 40% of the games involved one or more safeties.

Petros Andrikop · Aug 4, 2016

Once again great work, thank you!!

AtLarge · Aug 4, 2016

Here are the finalists' paths through the Championship:

Albin Ouschan

1. Roberto Gomez 9-6

2. Antonio Gabica 9-8

3. Jeff Ignacio 11-7

4. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz 11-6

5. Mario He 11-9

6. Jayson Shaw 11-7

7. Alex Pagulayan 11-4

8. Shane Van Boening 13-6

Total Record in Matches -- 8-0

Total Record in Games -- 86-53 (winning percentage 62%)

Shane Van Boening

1. Yukio Akagariyama 5-9

2. Ariel Casto 9-2

3. Francisco Felicilda 9-3

4. Warren Kiamco 11-7

5. Wu Kun Lin 11-5

6. Omar Al Shaheen 11-5

7. Alex Kazakis 11-9

8. Kevin Cheng 11-9

9. Albin Ouschan 6-13

Total Record in Matches -- 7-2

Total Record in Games -- 84-62 (winning percentage 58%)

pt109 · Aug 4, 2016

Thank you, AtLarge for the atlargess of stats.

oldzilla · Aug 4, 2016

pt109 said:
Thank you, AtLarge for the atlargess of stats.

Good job "Stats" :yeah:

AtLarge · Aug 4, 2016

I was curious to see what differences would result from this year's new (to this event) 9-on-the-spot racking rule. In prior years, the 1-ball was on the spot. The purpose of the change was to make the game more difficult by reducing the frequency of wing balls going in on the break.

So here are some comparisons for 2015 vs. 2016. Unfortunately, the sample size in 2016 was much smaller because of the limited streaming. Although this compromises the comparisons somewhat, it's still worth taking a look. What do you think -- was the objective achieved?

Breaks on which at least one ball was pocketed (includes all wet breaks even if illegal or fouled)
2015 -- 97% (329 of 340)
2016 -- 83% (87 of 105)

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
2015 -- 88% (300 of 340)
2016 -- 71% (75 of 105)

Breaker won game:
2015 -- 62% (210 of 340)
2016 -- 56% (59 of 105)

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
2015 -- 37% (126 of 340)
2016 -- 28% (29 of 105)

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks:
2015 -- 42% (126 of 300)
2016 -- 39% (29 of 75)

Average number of balls made on the break:
2015 -- 1.7 on all breaks, 1.8 on successful breaks
2016 -- 1.4 on all breaks, 1.7 on successful breaks

Games ending in one inning:
2015 -- 55% (188 of 340)
2016 -- 52% (55 of 105)

Run-outs from first shot after break:
2015 -- 43% (145 of 340)
2016 -- 39% (41 of 105)

Games won by player who made the first ball after the break:
2015 -- 79% (266 of 337)
2016 -- 80% (84 of 105)

Average minutes per game (includes time for racking and timeouts):
2015 -- 6.2
2016 -- 6.7

pt109 · Aug 4, 2016

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Very illuminating...9 on the spot is the way to go

AtLarge · Aug 5, 2016

AtLarge said:
I was curious to see what differences would result from this year's new (to this event) 9-on-the-spot racking rule. In prior years, the 1-ball was on the spot. The purpose of the change was to make the game more difficult by reducing the frequency of wing balls going in on the break.

So here are some comparisons for 2015 vs. 2016. Unfortunately, the sample size in 2016 was much smaller because of the limited streaming. Although this compromises the comparisons somewhat, it's still worth taking a look. What do you think -- was the objective achieved? ...

Not getting any response to this, so I'll give my own view.

The change to racking with the 9-ball on the spot had just a modest effect in making the game more difficult. Balls were still pocketed on the break at a very high rate. The wing ball was pocketed on about two-thirds of the breaks. B&R's were down about a quarter, but games ending in one inning and run-outs from the first shot after the break were nearly the same as the prior year.

So simply moving the rack of balls about 4" farther from the foot rail, while keeping all the other breaking rules the same, does not do much for making the game more difficult. Perhaps the next step in that direction would be to do what the US Open 9-Ball Championship is now doing -- use a fairly narrow break box instead of allowing them to break from near the side rails.

meister2u · Aug 5, 2016

AtLarge said:
Miscellany from the data for the 2016 WPA World 9-Ball Championship
[Unless stated otherwise, this relates only to the 6 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 3 times – twice by Biado (one break-and-run game and one loss) and once by Ouschan (a B&R).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.4 (this includes illegal, dry, and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul), the average was 1.7.

• 52% (55 of 105) of the games ended in one inning – 28% (29 games) won by the breaker (B&R) and 25% (26 games) won by the non-breaker. 11% (12 of 105) of the games lasted more than 3 innings. The longest was 8 innings.

• 39% (41 of 105) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 39% (29 of 75)
By the non-breaker after illegal breaks -- 43% (3 of 7)
By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 80% (4 of 5)
By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 28% (5 of 18)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 72% of the time (76 of 105)
- Won the game in a later inning 8% of the time (8 of 105)
- Lost the game 20% of the time (21 of 105)

• For the 5 races to 11 (single-elimination stage other than the finals), the loser won an average of 6.2 games. The comparable number for all 62 of the tournament's races to 11 was 6.9 games.

• Fargo Favorites -- The player with the higher Fargo Rating at the start of the match won 33% (2 of 6) of the streamed matches (assumes Al Remawi's rating would be lower than Al Shaheen's). Ouschan was the lower-rated player in each of his 3 appearances on stream.

• The average elapsed time for the 5 races to 11 was 113 minutes, averaging 6.6 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match highest in average minutes per game, at 7.4, was Ouschan d. Van Boening. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.7, was Ouschan d. Shaw.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 21 games, other fouls about 1 for every 5 1/2 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2 1/3 games.

• About 40% of the games involved one or more safeties.

I did notice Oushan playing slower against Shane especially with wide open table. I see your 7.4 minute game stat. Guess thats part of game to shark your opponent and make them stew in mistakes. Cause Shane was shooting fast when he had open table. Its not illegal but was noticeable when Oushan was at the table.

barrymuch90 · Aug 5, 2016

AtLarge said:
Not getting any response to this, so I'll give my own view.

The change to racking with the 9-ball on the spot had just a modest effect in making the game more difficult. Balls were still pocketed on the break at a very high rate. The wing ball was pocketed on about two-thirds of the breaks. B&R's were down about a quarter, but games ending in one inning and run-outs from the first shot after the break were nearly the same as the prior year.

So simply moving the rack of balls about 4" farther from the foot rail, while keeping all the other breaking rules the same, does not do much for making the game more difficult. Perhaps the next step in that direction would be to do what the US Open 9-Ball Championship is now doing -- use a fairly narrow break box instead of allowing them to break from near the side rails.

As for the new format I believe this effectively made it harder to pocket a ball(see first stat from 97%) but still didn't go down much. Also I believe that the players will eventually break at similar success rates, after they find the most consistant spot and practice and get used to it so it worked slightly this year but won't do much difference in future years. As far as 9 ball there's not much to make the game less of a run out and break contest so imo either accept it or avoid it meaning don't keep trying to change the game just enjoy it for what it is. The immediate answer is 10 ball but I believe 9 ball has its benefits and is still a great game and can still provide a platform for a world event: also I believe 10ball has its own benefits and that's why there was two different titles one for each game.

pt109 · Aug 5, 2016

AtLarge said:
Not getting any response to this, so I'll give my own view.

The change to racking with the 9-ball on the spot had just a modest effect in making the game more difficult. Balls were still pocketed on the break at a very high rate. The wing ball was pocketed on about two-thirds of the breaks. B&R's were down about a quarter, but games ending in one inning and run-outs from the first shot after the break were nearly the same as the prior year.

So simply moving the rack of balls about 4" farther from the foot rail, while keeping all the other breaking rules the same, does not do much for making the game more difficult. Perhaps the next step in that direction would be to do what the US Open 9-Ball Championship is now doing -- use a fairly narrow break box instead of allowing them to break from near the side rails.

Add to tha modest effect by making the break box one diamond square in the middle of
the end rail.

Bob Jewett · Aug 8, 2016

AtLarge said:
Miscellany from the data for the 2016 WPA World 9-Ball Championship ...
• Fargo Favorites -- The player with the higher Fargo Rating at the start of the match won 33% (2 of 6) of the streamed matches (assumes Al Remawi's rating would be lower than Al Shaheen's). Ouschan was the lower-rated player in each of his 3 appearances on stream.
...

Click to expand...

A small added point here...

Based solely on Fargo Ratings, Ouschan had about 1 chance in 36 of beating Van Boening by a score of 13-6 or better, so the result is not astounding but it is remarkable.

Break Stats -- 2016 WPA World 9-Ball Championship, August 2016

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