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Poolplaya9
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06-16-2017, 05:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
Wayne Gretzsky said "You miss 100% of the shots you don't go for."

When you play a safety, two things can happen, usually....
...you can get the safety, or you can sell it out.

When you go for the bank, three things can happen, usually...
...you can make it, you can sell it out, or you can get a safety...
...I like the 2 to 1 in my favor....so I often go for it.

Sometimes when you go for a shot, you find you're better at it than you thought...
...if you never go for them, you'll never know.
You analysis is assuming that your odds for getting safe or selling out are the same in the case where you choose to play the safety, and it is also assuming that your odds for making the ball, selling out, or getting accidentally safe are all the same in the case where you choose to go for the shot. They are not. To look at it in such an overly simplistic and obviously erroneous manner will lead to making the wrong choice a large portion of the time, possibly even more often than you will end up making the right choice.

The odds for the two or three things are never the same, and are typically not anywhere even close to the same. They are also different for every single shot/situation you face and must be assessed independently for that particular situation. They also will vary based on the particular strengths and weaknesses of the person shooting and so the best choice for a situation can sometimes be different depending on who it is that is doing the shooting. The proper choice can also vary based on how strong or weak your opponent plays, or based on their particular strengths and weakness as well (their ability to bank, their speed control, their shot making ability, etc).

The ability to properly play the odds is absolutely essential to ever becoming a very good player. The ability to properly assess the correct odds is obviously required in order to ever be able to properly play them. The ability to properly assess the odds requires always making a concerted effort to assess them and then learning from your mistakes and getting better at it over time as opposed to relying on overly simplistic and grossly inaccurate rules of thumb as outlined in your post.

Last edited by Poolplaya9; 06-16-2017 at 05:56 PM.
  
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