Break Stats -- US Bar Table 8-Ball Championship, February 2015

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AtLarge

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the US Bar Table Men's 8-Ball Championship, played this week in Reno, NV at the Grand Sierra Resort and Casino. The promoters, CueSports International, provided pay-per-view streaming.

The conditions for this call-shot event included: Diamond 7-foot table with 4½" pro-cut corner pockets, Simonis 860 Tournament Blue cloth (not brand new for this event), Cyclop TV balls (including the cue ball), jump cues allowed, breaker racks using the Magic Rack template, alternating breaks from anywhere behind the head string, cue-ball fouls only, table open after the break, ball in hand anywhere on the table after a foul on the break, making an 8-ball on the break does not count as a win (breaker's choice to spot the 8-ball and continue or to re-break), and an illegal break unless a ball is pocketed or at least 4 object balls reach a cushion.

These stats are for all 19 streamed matches:
​
Friday, February 20
J. Roberts defeated A. Olinger 5-4​
J. Sossei d. D. Louie 5-4​
J. Shaw d. R. Saez 5-0​
J. Bergman d. M. Tadd 5-2​
J. Ignacio d. R. Hendrickson 5-3​
​
Saturday, February 21
D. Olson d. T. Hansen 5-2​
O. Dominguez d. T. Baron 5-1​
M. Massey d. D. Gomez 5-0​
N. Kruger d. D. Pogirski 5-2​
J. Bergman d. J. Roberts 5-3​
J. Ignacio d. J. Shaw 5-4​
J. Bustamante d. S. Woodward 5-3​
J. Bustamante d. J. Shaw 5-2​
​
Sunday, February 22
J. Bergman d. S. Frost 5-1​
C. Deuel d. S. Van Boening 5-3​
C. Deuel d. S. Knoll 5-4​
J. Igmacio d. S. McKay 5-4​
J. Bergman d. S. McKay 5-3 (semifinals)​
J. Ignacio d. J. Bergman 5-4 (finals)​
​
Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball and did not foul 68% of the time (98 of 144), won 58% of the games (83 of 144), and broke and ran 44% of the games (64 of 144).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 144 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 68 (47% of the 144 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 30 (21%)​
​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 1 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 10 (7%)​
​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 14 (10%)​
Breaker lost the game: 21 (15%)​
​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 58% (83) of all 144 games,​
He won 69% (68 of 98) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 9% (1 of 11) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 40% (14 of 35) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 33% (15 of 46) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

Break-and-run games: The 64 break-and-run games represented 44% of all 144 games, 77% of the 83 games won by the breaker, and 65% of the 98 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 64 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Deuel), 5 alternate-break 3-packs, 11 alternate-break 2-packs, and 23 singles.

8-balls on the break: None.
 
Last edited:
BRussell

BRussell

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Nice job, as usual AtLarge. I'm curious if you ever keep track of breaking style or position, like from the center vs. 2nd ball break from the side.
 
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AtLarge

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BRussell said:
Nice job, as usual AtLarge. I'm curious if you ever keep track of breaking style or position, like from the center vs. 2nd ball break from the side.
Click to expand...

I did think of that and I noted that Olinger, Hendrickson, Deuel, and McKay all broke into the second ball rather than the head ball. Others may have done so as well, but, if so, I failed to note it.

Those 4 players were on 6 streamed matches, but they totaled only 25 breaks, so the data is not particularly meaningful. Their combined breaking results were a bit better than the overall averages, but Corey Deuel was largely accountable for that. In his two streamed matches, he had 7 B&R's in his 8 breaks. So he was pretty good with the 2nd-ball break!
 
ideologist

ideologist

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minnesota_slim said:
Of the 98 games when the breaker made a ball and did not foul... how many games did the breaker win of those 98?
Click to expand...

He has it noted as 82 wins and 51 losses when the breaker didn't foul.

This includes dry breaks.

68 wins when he made a ball on the break
 
Ken_4fun

Ken_4fun

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Data worth reviewing.

Titanic Thompson was huge fan of data. It allowed him to win millions, as many times what people think and the actual data do not agree. This provides opportunity.

Thanks for your efforts.

Ken
 
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decent dennis

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Good work. The 8-ball was great, the problam was watching men break like girls, and Corey get the 3-9 combo god knows how many times off his break. If I was a newbie or just a third party watching I would ( and was) bored as hell.
 
pt109

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AtLarge said:
I did think of that and I noted that Olinger, Hendrickson, Deuel, and McKay all broke into the second ball rather than the head ball. Others may have done so as well, but, if so, I failed to note it.

Those 4 players were on 6 streamed matches, but they totaled only 25 breaks, so the data is not particularly meaningful. Their combined breaking results were a bit better than the overall averages, but Corey Deuel was largely accountable for that. In his two streamed matches, he had 7 B&R's in his 8 breaks. So he was pretty good with the 2nd-ball break!
Click to expand...

This is particularly interesting to me...
..I've always felt you're less vulnerable to table, cloth, and racking
conditions by breaking the second ball.
I'm in good company if Corey feels the same way.

thanx as usual, sir

ps...do you call your kid AtSmall?


..oh, and call your wife AtHome...:)
 
Black-Balled

Black-Balled

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decent dennis said:
Good work. The 8-ball was great, the problam was watching men break like girls, and Corey get the 3-9 combo god knows how many times off his break. If I was a newbie or just a third party watching I would ( and was) bored as hell.
Click to expand...

I think Corey is smartenough to not play any damn 3-9 combos.

What use would they serve in 8 ball?
 
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AtLarge

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minnesota_slim said:
Of the 98 games when the breaker made a ball and did not foul... how many games did the breaker win of those 98?
Click to expand...

Post #1 shows that in the 98 games where the breaker broke successfully (made at least one ball and did not foul), he won 68 times, or 69%.
 
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AtLarge

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Miscellany from the data for the 2015 US Bar Table Men's 8-Ball Championship
[This relates only to the 19 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• In tournament winner Ignacio's 4 streamed matches, he broke successfully at a 71% rate (12 of 17), won on his break at a 65% rate (11 of 17), and broke and ran at a 47% rate (8 of 17). All 3 rates were just slightly above the overall averages for the 19 streamed matches.

• The most balls made on a single break was six, by Shaw, and he ran out the game. Next highest was four balls on the break -- once each by Shaw and Roberts. Both of those games also were B&R's.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.2 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). Excluding dry breaks, the average was 1.6. Excluding dry and fouled breaks, the average was 1.7.

• Following the 11 breaking fouls, the incoming player ran out the game 9 times (82%).

• 79% of the games ended in one inning -- 44% won by the breaker (B&R) and 35% won by the non-breaker.

• 62% of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break -- 44% won by the breaker (B&R) and 17% won by the non-breaker following a fouled or dry break.

• The average match score was 5 - 2.6

• The average elapsed time for the matches was 49 minutes, or 6.5 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and breaks (time-outs).

• The Sossei d. Louie match was both longest in elapsed time (98 min.) and highest in average minutes per game (10.9). This resulted not from unusually slow play throughout the match, but from one extremely long game. In that game, Dan Louie broke dry and 14 of the 15 balls were on the breaker's left side of the table, with most of them between the foot rail and the side pocket. This resulted in lots of thinking and lots of safes.

• The Shaw d. Saez match was shortest in elapsed time (26 min. for the 5 games). The Shaw d. J. Bustamante match was lowest in average minutes per game (4.3 min./game for the 7 games).
 
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schon267

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I thought the 9 ball was ridiculous as far as the breaks went, with the magic rack, the wing ball went every time and the one drifted towards back corner pocket when guys soft broke, say 20%. everybody I played in 9 ball broke that way. I broke about 45-55%, made 2 or 3 balls every time. the lag was gigantic to win!!
10 ball wasn't quite as bad, but the lag was still important.

8 ball was ok as everybody broke normal speed for them. I found the tv table broke real good in my match with corey on sunday. so I was really surprised watching finals when both Justin and jeff broke dry 2 times each at end of match. 4 total straight times of dry breaks! crazy

anyway, just my view from being there and playing all 3 events. I think soft breaking in 9 ball shouldn't be allowed, or put the 9 on the spot. winning the lag was huge in 9 ball. I had fun and did good for me, event ran smooth by staff. I would definitely go again.

steve knoll
 
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schon267 said:
I thought the 9 ball was ridiculous as far as the breaks went, with the magic rack, the wing ball went every time and the one drifted towards back corner pocket when guys soft broke, say 20%. everybody I played in 9 ball broke that way. I broke about 45-55%, made 2 or 3 balls every time. the lag was gigantic to win!!
10 ball wasn't quite as bad, but the lag was still important.

8 ball was ok as everybody broke normal speed for them. I found the tv table broke real good in my match with corey on sunday. so I was really surprised watching finals when both Justin and jeff broke dry 2 times each at end of match. 4 total straight times of dry breaks! crazy

anyway, just my view from being there and playing all 3 events. I think soft breaking in 9 ball shouldn't be allowed, or put the 9 on the spot. winning the lag was huge in 9 ball. I had fun and did good for me, event ran smooth by staff. I would definitely go again.

steve knoll
Click to expand...

Hello, Mr. Knoll -- congratulations on your 5th place finish in the 8-Ball and finishing in the money in the other two! That 8-Ball match of yours with Corey was something. The commentators on the stream, Ken Shuman and Brian Butler, thought you had a break-and-run in Game 1 (when you played safe after your wet break), so throughout the match they kept saying that every game had been a B&R up until the last game. But it was almost like that -- you guys had 7 in a row after Game 1 (4 for Corey, 3 for you), taking you to a 4-4 score. Then you scratched on that 9-ball in the deciding game. It must be tough to lose a match in which you never missed a ball. But good show, for sure!

As to the Jeff/Justin finals, yes, they each had 2 dry breaks, but they were not all in a row. Jeff's first one was in Game 4, but they did break dry in the final 3 games.

And I agree with you about the 9-Ball break -- breaking real soft to make a wired wing ball and set up the 1-ball near the top corner is not the kind of challenge I like to see.

Thanks for your thoughts about the event.
 
S

schon267

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AtLarge said:
Hello, Mr. Knoll -- congratulations on your 5th place finish in the 8-Ball and finishing in the money in the other two! That 8-Ball match of yours with Corey was something. The commentators on the stream, Ken Shuman and Brian Butler, thought you had a break-and-run in Game 1 (when you played safe after your wet break), so throughout the match they kept saying that every game had been a B&R up until the last game. But it was almost like that -- you guys had 7 in a row after Game 1 (4 for Corey, 3 for you), taking you to a 4-4 score. Then you scratched on that 9-ball in the deciding game. It must be tough to lose a match in which you never missed a ball. But good show, for sure!

As to the Jeff/Justin finals, yes, they each had 2 dry breaks, but they were not all in a row. Jeff's first one was in Game 4, but they did break dry in the final 3 games.

And I agree with you about the 9-Ball break -- breaking real soft to make a wired wing ball and set up the 1-ball near the top corner is not the kind of challenge I like to see.

Thanks for your thoughts about the event.
Click to expand...


thanks for the compliment at large!
yeh I actually got 2 bad rolls that game, not getting some sort of shot on 1 of the 3 balls I had left, plus making a really tough cut up to corner and nicking the 3 to scratch. funny it was the first break that all the balls weren't touching. just a little bad luck is all. I was happy with the way I played the whole event. I was also a major dumbass in the 10 ball forfeiting my 3rd match on the winners side! 52 and can't read a bracket!! I had a match at 4pm, and 5:30p,m, I guess I thought I wouldn't play back to back at that point and assumed it was next day. my fault and nobody to blame but myself. then as I'm sitting at a bar in reno looking at my phone, I realized my ****up and just made it back to play losers bracket match with Derek pagirski. talk about trying to refocus after kicking yourself in the ass!! I won that match 7-2 I think, money match too. anyway, thanks for the compliment bud.
 
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