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AtLarge
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12-20-2019, 03:59 PM

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Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
And 1/(0.91^90) = 1 in 4856 so the assumptions are critical.
Right. Repeating what you said earlier: "... a small change in the percentage per rack makes a large change in the long-run chances." And didn't John say he tried about 4,000 times in those sessions?
  
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12-20-2019, 04:06 PM

Chris -- about 1 in 250,000 would result from using .871 rather than .9.
  
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12-20-2019, 06:02 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Chris -- about 1 in 250,000 would result from using .871 rather than .9.
I regret starting this thread, as it has now made me very depressed in regards to my chances of ever running 100 balls. Now looking at these power calculator tables, assuming my chances per rack are at 25%, which is likely an optimistic percentage, puts my chances of stringing together 7+ consecutive racks / 100 balls at less than 1 in 10,000. I guess I’m going to have to come up with a more realistically attainable goal.

Last edited by ChrisinNC; 12-20-2019 at 06:10 PM.
  
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Aw Shucks, second thoughts?
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Aw Shucks, second thoughts? - 12-20-2019, 06:41 PM

deleted. same as thread

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12-20-2019, 10:49 PM

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Originally Posted by ChrisinNC View Post
I regret starting this thread, as it has now made me very depressed in regards to my chances of ever running 100 balls. Now looking at these power calculator tables, assuming my chances per rack are at 25%, which is likely an optimistic percentage, puts my chances of stringing together 7+ consecutive racks / 100 balls at less than 1 in 10,000. I guess I’m going to have to come up with a more realistically attainable goal.
Yes, 1 in about 20,000. But don't give up. You're in your low 60's now, right? So 300 days a year for 20 years will give you 6,000 days to try. Just 3 or 4 attempts per day and you've got a good chance to do it!

Last edited by AtLarge; 12-20-2019 at 10:53 PM.
  
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12-21-2019, 11:03 AM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post


Yes, 1 in about 20,000. But don't give up. You're in your low 60's now, right? So 300 days a year for 20 years will give you 6,000 days to try. Just 3 or 4 attempts per day and you've got a good chance to do it!
I appreciate your encouragement, but I would say my window is closing fast - I certainly need to get it done within the next five years. My biggest obstacle is the table I am attempting to do it on – a 10 foot table with 4-1/4 inch corner pocket openings. I know - don’t ask me why I’m torturing myself! My realistic goal on this table is 4 racks - 56 balls. I ran a 42 at the beginning of the year, but haven’t matched it since.

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12-21-2019, 02:30 PM

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Originally Posted by ChrisinNC View Post
I appreciate your encouragement, but I would say my window is closing fast - I certainly need to get it done within the next five years. My biggest obstacle is the table I am attempting to do it on – a 10 foot table with 4-1/4 inch corner pocket openings. I know - don’t ask me why I’m torturing myself! My realistic goal on this table is 4 racks - 56 balls. I ran a 42 at the beginning of the year, but haven’t matched it since.
I suggest the likelihood is low unless during serious competition (no penalty for missing). Aside from possibly losing the race between declining physical ability & continued accumulation of knowledge, my greatest barrier to accomplishing the ‘century’ goal, would seem to be the dearth of enthusiastic 14.1 opponents & suitable (quiet) rooms with appropriate equipment within a practical distance.

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12-21-2019, 03:39 PM

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Originally Posted by DynoDan View Post
I suggest the likelihood is low unless during serious competition (no penalty for missing). Aside from possibly losing the race between declining physical ability & continued accusation of knowledge, my greatest barrier to accomplishing the Ďcenturyí goal, would seem to be the dearth of enthusiastic 14.1 opponents & suitable (quiet) rooms with appropriate equipment within a practical distance.
There are basically no 14.1 opponents around here for me to play, but having a quiet place for solitary practice sessions on tables with clean cloth, clean balls and no distractions is not a problem. Except for our Monday weekly 9-ball tournament night, our pool room is dead every other night. Pretty much the only thing keeping us going is our food operation.

For myself, the chance of a high run is much greater during my solitary practice sessions, when I can start over after each miss, than it would be during a match, when Iíd be far more inclined to play a safety when left with a tough shot.
  
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12-22-2019, 01:40 PM

I would agree that the consecutive number of times coming up with a breakshot/open table shot is the most impressive aspect of a 600+ run. I think that, if they wanted to try for a high run the way John did, by just focusing on that aspect of the game, there were several past greats in 14.1 who could have done that.
But that's not taking away from what he did- just that he had a motive and none of the past greats had a motive for even trying it on an ongoing basis. There are some modern day players who impress me as possibly being capable as well- again- if they chose to devote their pool life to that end.
As per someone running 100 balls as a goal- there are a lot of people who run one rack consistently, sometimes two- but can't figure out why stringing five to seven together seems so improbable. Besides some luck or a good roll vs. a bad roll - I look at three components of 14.1 that need to be reasonably mastered to run 100, once you can pocket balls consistently: 1. the ability to FOCUS on 100 shots without a miss - not really so easy as one would think. 2. the ability to read the table in setting up consecutive break shots - most 1 or 2 rack runners don't put enough practice into this aspect of the game, or just don't have the full knowledge, and 3. watch guys like Holhmann and Immonen- you really need to have great ability to move the cue ball to ideal locations on the last four shots, one has to be fortunate to get 3 or 4 stop shot positions to the break ball, rack after rack after rack, no matter how good you are at reading the table and playing patterns- it happens; but not very often for 7 racks in row.
Normally in a 100 ball run, one or more pattern and position plays to the break ball require professional level execution, not always, but on most 100 ball runs for sure.
  
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Danny Harriman
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ok - 12-27-2019, 10:28 AM

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As a player who has played 14.1 for nearly 50 years, with a personal high run of 7 racks
accomplished 20 years ago and still not giving up trying to break that century mark despite my advancing years, I’d like to offer my opinion as to the most impressive aspect of John’s 626 - 45 consecutive rack run.

To me, it is unquestionably how unlikely it is for anyone to successfully set up and execute 45 consecutive beginning of the rack break shots - managing to not only avoid scratching but leaving himself a high percentage shot after that to continue his run. That is, for myself, without a doubt, the one most common cause of ending my attempts to be able to successfully string 14.1 racks together.

More impressive than the obvious unworldly skills needed to run 45 consecutive racks, those 45 out of 45 successful break shots, leaving himself at least a reasonable shot every single time, in my opinion is not only incredible and extremely unlikely to occur for anyone, but I would venture to say lucky and extremely unlikely to ever be surpassed, even for the very best players in the world! Opinions?
ok I get that u wanted to give john a plug for his mystery tape of 626 - yer right u probly will never get past a 7 racks. Having many friends on fakebook or with the bca will not get u there I guarantee u that. it was a poor thread - also noticed u misspelled his name - is that some version of moris code? It was a weak puppet minded thread - I could not agree more.


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12-27-2019, 10:50 AM

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Originally Posted by Danny Harriman View Post
ok I get that u wanted to give john a plug for his mystery tape of 626 - yer right u probly will never get past a 7 racks. Having many friends on fakebook or with the bca will not get u there I guarantee u that. it was a poor thread - also noticed u misspelled his name - is that some version of moris code? It was a weak puppet minded thread - I could not agree more.
Danny, Iím sorry I didnít get approval from you on this before starting/posting it. I greatly admired your pool skills when I used to attend the US open every year, 20 - 25 years ago. It was always puzzling to me to pinpoint what kept you from breaking through and winning any more than you did, considering your talent and skill. Just curious as to your reasons for not competing anymore?
  
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polytick - 01-03-2020, 01:56 PM

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Originally Posted by ChrisinNC View Post
Danny, I’m sorry I didn’t get approval from you on this before starting/posting it. I greatly admired your pool skills when I used to attend the US open every year, 20 - 25 years ago. It was always puzzling to me to pinpoint what kept you from breaking through and winning any more than you did, considering your talent and skill. Just curious as to your reasons for not competing anymore?
You do not need approval from me to make polytickly' correct posts, whats really strong is u probly have not seen the run in it's entirety either - guess u got two birds with one stone giving diamond billiards a plug and schmidty's phony mystery tape. I did not put any focus on protecting myself from the rack mechanics i.e. archer during the loser rack nine ball era. Always puzzling to me when a person who has been alive as long as u have that will believe everything they hear - without 1st seeing evidence - but I guess u just wanted to give schmidty's camp some sort of reaffirmation. I prefer Jim Henson's version of puppets - see ya in the funny papers.

The most impressive aspect of his hall of fame/mysery tape/cue sponsorship deal - is that he has been able to make this phony claim for over 8 months now and hide the tape from 'the people'. who are willing to carefully scrutinize the picture quality, There is a reason for his private viewing party - u know it - and so do i. The bca,nyslimes, and az straight pool section should all be ashamed of themselves for allowing the drive by media to taint Mosconi's 526. I will now add u to that list of corrupt puppets as well - unless u have seen un-edited video proof - u have a right to be depressed - If I were a puppet that could not or would not think for myself - maybe u have hidden political agenda. U should see if u can get in on their semi public soiree, they certainly wont release the tape to the people court - they know it could have repercussions on bca,nyslimes, and other fake news organizations after they find out the tape has been tampered with. Hall of fame is a political org that should be dismantled from the bottom of their serpents nests - that is really how I feel bout it too. I figured yer puzzle out purty quick - however - the ol he's great compared to me - never heard that one before - you will have to forgive me but I do not admire yer skeels.


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Last edited by Danny Harriman; 01-22-2020 at 05:08 PM.
  
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