The 9-Ball Break- How much luck is involved?

vjmehra · Aug 12, 2016

I'm hoping people on here can settle a debate I'm having on a snooker forum...

My theory is that the 9-Ball break involves a lot of skill, hence players like SVB, Corey etc. have an advantages in say long races where winner breaks.

However I also clarify this by saying there is luck involved in the break, as if there was not every pro player would pot the 9 on every break.

The counter argument is that there is no luck involved in the break at all and that it is a shot of pure skill.

I promised I would start a thread on AZ to the guy I was arguing with and I also said that you would all side with me...so here goes...who is correct here?

(On the off chance anyone is interested, assuming it doesn't break forum rules, here is the original thread on a snooker forum: http://www.thesnookerforum.co.uk/board/threads/56192-Who-has-the-biggest-skill-set)

Ratta · Aug 12, 2016

vjmehra said:
I'm hoping people on here can settle a debate I'm having on a snooker forum...

My theory is that the 9-Ball break involves a lot of skill, hence players like SVB, Corey etc. have an advantages in say long races where winner breaks.

However I also clarify this by saying there is luck involved in the break, as if there was not every pro player would pot the 9 on every break.

The counter argument is that there is no luck involved in the break at all and that it is a shot of pure skill.

I promised I would start a thread on AZ to the guy I was arguing with and I also said that you would all side with me...so here goes...who is correct here?

(On the off chance anyone is interested, assuming it doesn't break forum rules, here is the original thread on a snooker forum: http://www.thesnookerforum.co.uk/board/threads/56192-Who-has-the-biggest-skill-set)

1st : The nineball break (or the break in any game) is the only thing, which is always the same- so you can practice it like an idiot (and should

)

It s the only repeatable situation that will always come up- so what you can practice is your accouracy and the speed- how you hit the cueball to make perfect contact with the one ball (no matter from where- no matter which rules- f.e. 1 or 9 on spot).

2nd: How do define luck- that s tough

but let s say, that *pattern racking* would be allowed: then you would again have another huge percentage of luck out of the game.

3rd: It all depends on the given material- cloth conditions, rails etc. - so imo you ll still have some percent of luck.
but in my opinion not that much luck, as many many players are crying about- this is my serious opinon. A few percent of luck is still given.

And how you ve shown up-- it s not an accident that some players have big advantage that they re breakin so well. Practice pays back

vjmehra · Aug 12, 2016

Ratta said:
1st : The nineball break (or the break in any game) is the only thing, which is always the same- so you can practice it like an idiot (and should )

It s the only repeatable situation that will always come up- so what you can practice is your accouracy and the speed- how you hit the cueball to make perfect contact with the one ball (no matter from where- no matter which rules- f.e. 1 or 9 on spot).

2nd: How do define luck- that s tough but let s say, that *pattern racking* would be allowed: then you would again have another huge percentage of luck out of the game.

3rd: It all depends on the given material- cloth conditions, rails etc. - so imo you ll still have some percent of luck.
but in my opinion not that much luck, as many many players are crying about- this is my serious opinon. A few percent of luck is still given.

And how you ve shown up-- it s not an accident that some players have big advantage that they re breakin so well. Practice pays back

For the avoidance of doubt, in this debate pattern racking is not allowed (you can however read the rack).

We didn't specify whether you could rack your own or not, but I'm going to say all racks are referee racked in this scenario, I'm only concerned with the physical break off shot itself.

As for defining luck...my personal view is best explained like this:

In practice if you place a ball 3 foot from any corner pocket, the cue ball 3 foot back and make the pot every time then it is not lucky, that is skill.

If you can hand on heart say if you break off and can call the ball(s) you are going to pot every time, then that is 100% skill.

If you can never do that its 100% luck.

However if you can do it some of the time then other times can't it suggests there is some skill involved, but also luck (which is what I believe the case to be).

Bob Jewett · Aug 12, 2016

vjmehra said:
... My theory is that the 9-Ball break involves a lot of skill, hence players like SVB, Corey etc. have an advantages in say long races where winner breaks ...

Do you know about the "wired wing ball" from a tight rack? Do you know about the use of templates and/or training the table?

Neil · Aug 12, 2016

It all depends on just how far you want to break it down to. Technically, there is no luck whatsoever. The balls have to behave as they are struck. Where the "luck" comes into play, is simply a lack of knowledge on just what will happen under certain conditions.

For example, a guy makes the 9 on the break three times in a row. Many will say how lucky he got. Some will say, the rack was loose. There was a slight gap which will always cause the 9 to head to the corner pocket. On a tight rack, the 9 will just stay in place.

As was already mentioned, then you also have pattern racking. The balls will always tend to go in the same direction. How much that direction varies depends soley on gaps between balls (which there is a DVD out on how to read those gaps by Joe Tucker) and the speed struck and the angle coming into the head ball.

On the other hand, if you don't know how to read a rack, and don't know how the incoming angle changes things, then it's all just a crap-shoot, and will easily be viewed as just a lucky shot to start the game with.

vjmehra · Aug 12, 2016

Bob Jewett said:
Do you know about the "wired wing ball" from a tight rack? Do you know about the use of templates and/or training the table?

As I said, you can't rack your own, but if you are confident that you can call the shot 100% of the time (without breaking any common tournament rules) then I'd say that is not luck.

Templates would be allowed.

For clarity, what do you mean by:

1) Wired wing ball
2) Training the table?

I assume you are talking about a rack that ensures a wing ball goes in every time for the first and maybe a worn cloth/tapped table leading to a ball always going in on the second, but I'm not familiar with the terms so may be wrong!

vjmehra · Aug 12, 2016

Neil said:
It all depends on just how far you want to break it down to. Technically, there is no luck whatsoever. The balls have to behave as they are struck. Where the "luck" comes into play, is simply a lack of knowledge on just what will happen under certain conditions.

For example, a guy makes the 9 on the break three times in a row. Many will say how lucky he got. Some will say, the rack was loose. There was a slight gap which will always cause the 9 to head to the corner pocket. On a tight rack, the 9 will just stay in place.

As was already mentioned, then you also have pattern racking. The balls will always tend to go in the same direction. How much that direction varies depends soley on gaps between balls (which there is a DVD out on how to read those gaps by Joe Tucker) and the speed struck and the angle coming into the head ball.

On the other hand, if you don't know how to read a rack, and don't know how the incoming angle changes things, then it's all just a crap-shoot, and will easily be viewed as just a lucky shot to start the game with.

Pattern racking isn't allowed in my scenario.

If the guy called the 9 each time then its not luck, if he didn't that is (thats the easiest way to settle it, if you are 100% sure someone can call and make the ball its not luck, if they don't do that 100% of the time there is a luck element).

Scratch85 · Aug 12, 2016

It's like predicting the weather. There are too many variables in a break shot to accurately predict where each of the nine balls will come to rest. You can definitely make a few things happen consistently with the break but you cannot control the action of all the balls. If that is luck, then I think there is some luck in any break shot.

vjmehra · Aug 12, 2016

Scratch85 said:
It's like predicting the weather. There are too many variables in a break shot to accurately predict where each of the nine balls will come to rest. You can definitely make a few things happen consistently with the break but you cannot control the action of all the balls. If that is luck, then I think there is some luck in any break shot.

Yes, anything that isn't predicted I am defining as luck.

So if you always call the 1 in the right hand side pocket for example and make it, thats not luck. But if you call just the wing ball, but the 1 goes in, then thats luck.

My argument is that it is impossible to remove an element of luck from the break.

Yes you could argue from any shot, but I'm saying, you could shoot straight shots into a corner pocket, call them all and miss none all day, every day. On the break I'm sure the top players could call and make a good percentage compared to us mortals, but I doubt even SVB could call his shots 100% of the time on the break, hence there is some luck involved.

Does that clarify what I'm trying to ascertain or just make it more confusing, not actually sure!

Bob Jewett · Aug 12, 2016

vjmehra said:
As I said, you can't rack your own, but if you are confident that you can call the shot 100% of the time (without breaking any common tournament rules) then I'd say that is not luck.

Templates would be allowed.

For clarity, what do you mean by:

1) Wired wing ball
2) Training the table?

I assume you are talking about a rack that ensures a wing ball goes in every time for the first and maybe a worn cloth/tapped table leading to a ball always going in on the second, but I'm not familiar with the terms so may be wrong!

If the rack is tight and the one ball is racked on the spot, a corner (wing) ball is a very high percentage (90-99%) to go straight into the nearest corner even for mediocre players. A template or tapping/training the table ensures a tight rack. The nine ball does not move with a tight rack unless it is hit by a ball passing again through the rack area.

A table is "trained" by placing a template on the table, placing a ball in each hole in the template in turn and hitting the ball down into the cloth with another ball. After training, there is no need for a rack or template -- the balls just roll into the craters.

Bob Jewett · Aug 12, 2016

vjmehra said:
... My argument is that it is impossible to remove an element of luck from the break. ...

It is impossible to remove all luck from almost any shot at pool/billiards. This is obvious if you start to consider all of the things that can affect the shot and the position. Some of those things the player can't control even if he knows about them.

vjmehra · Aug 12, 2016

Bob Jewett said:
If the rack is tight and the one ball is racked on the spot, a corner (wing) ball is a very high percentage (90-99%) to go straight into the nearest corner even for mediocre players. A template or tapping/training the table ensures a tight rack. The nine ball does not move with a tight rack unless it is hit by a ball passing again through the rack area.

A table is "trained" by placing a template on the table, placing a ball in each hole in the template in turn and hitting the ball down into the cloth with another ball. After training, there is no need for a rack or template -- the balls just roll into the craters.

Ah I see, I would call what you refer to as trained as a 'tapped' table!

vjmehra · Aug 12, 2016

Bob Jewett said:
It is impossible to remove all luck from almost any shot at pool/billiards. This is obvious if you start to consider all of the things that can affect the shot and the position. Some of those things the player can't control even if he knows about them.

Technically true, but in simple terms if you call a shot and make it there's no luck and if you can't there is.

My stance is, no-one on the planet can call a ball on the break 100% of the time, but a top pro could go an entire match calling every shot he makes.

Bob Jewett · Aug 12, 2016

vjmehra said:
Technically true, but in simple terms if you call a shot and make it there's no luck and if you can't there is. ...

If I shoot a shot and get a skid and the ball ends up going in because it barely clips a ball half way to the pocket, I would say that luck was involved in the shot.

For that matter, if a beginner shoots a shot and happens to hit it with a lot of unintended side spin and the squirt, swerve and throw just happen to cancel out and the ball goes in, I'd say that shot had luck in it.

As for the original question.... The template or tapping removes a lot of luck from the break. The "three point rule" for the break puts some luck back in because the increased speed causes more collisions and the situation becomes more chaotic.

The smash break shot at pool has been cited in the technical literature as an example of chaos -- where a small difference at the start can make a big difference in the final result -- the butterfly effect. This results from the large number of collisions involved and the fact that the interactions are strongly nonlinear. The soft break at nine ball from a tight rack can both make the intended ball and reduce the number of collisions to the point where positions become repetitive especially with pattern racking.

On the other hand, here is what a perfectly symmetrical eight ball break looks like:
http://math.stackexchange.com/quest...d-break-of-a-perfectly-aligned-pool-ball-rack and presumably the layout would remain symmetrical on a suitably well-maintained table.

bdorman · Aug 12, 2016

9-ball break: 80% skill, 20% luck

10-ball break: 50% skill, 50% luck

8-ball break: 30% skill, 70% luck

one-pocket break: 95% skill, 5% luck

14.1 break: 95% skill, 5% luck

In my experience the only ball that has a "natural path to a pocket" is the wing-ball in a 9-ball rack. So, if one practices enough (i.e. gains skill) he has a higher percentage chance of making a ball in a 9-ball rack than he has in any other game. In a 10-ball rack the second row balls have an "almost natural" path to the side pockets...but it's an "almost".

YMMV

Gorramjayne · Aug 12, 2016

For players unburdened by moral scruples, a 9-ball break in most formats can be so engineered that a runout is almost guaranteed.

Corey Deuel used to abuse this before torunaments regularly required that three balls cross the headstring on the break. Especially on a barbox (distanace and angle to the rack made it easier) he would start left of the rack inline with the right side of the rack diamond, hit a slow draw soft break at just the right speed that the left wing ball was guaranteed to go, the one would stop and hang right in front of the side pocket with the CB right there. The ball under the right of the 1 would rest on the rail and the ball to the left under the 1 would wire itself to the 9 for a combo in the lower right pocket.

And in rack-your-own, he did some bad bad things that would get you stabbed and dragged behind a car in a money game. Watch.

(Links to the most flagrant example of him rigging the rack) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZa59OiRJd8&feature=youtu.be&t=1900

Yes, even with two balls required to pass the headstring you can work the rack a little. It's still easy to get a wing ball to go down or to put the one in the side if you prefer that break angle. It's a little harder to reliably bring the 1 and the CB up table for an opening shot, however, because one of them is more likely to be nudged off path when you're forced to break harder.

Neil · Aug 12, 2016

Gorramjayne said:
For players unburdened by moral scruples, a 9-ball break in most formats can be so engineered that a runout is almost guaranteed.

Corey Deuel used to abuse this before torunaments regularly required that three balls cross the headstring on the break. Especially on a barbox (distanace and angle to the rack made it easier) he would start left of the rack inline with the right side of the rack diamond, hit a slow draw soft break at just the right speed that the left wing ball was guaranteed to go, the one would stop and hang right in front of the side pocket with the CB right there. The ball under the right of the 1 would rest on the rail and the ball to the left under the 1 would wire itself to the 9 for a combo in the lower right pocket.

And in rack-your-own, he did some bad bad things that would get you stabbed and dragged behind a car in a money game. Watch.

(Links to the most flagrant example of him rigging the rack) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZa59OiRJd8&feature=youtu.be&t=1900

Yes, even with two balls required to pass the headstring you can work the rack a little. It's still easy to get a wing ball to go down or to put the one in the side if you prefer that break angle. It's a little harder to reliably bring the 1 and the CB up table for an opening shot, however, because one of them is more likely to be nudged off path when you're forced to break harder.

Care to explain why you state that clip is clearly showing rigging the rack? Because I just don't see it being rigged. It's hard to rig a rack on a template.

pt109 · Aug 12, 2016

Luck on the break at nine-ball?

The better I hit 'em, the luckier I get.

Bob Jewett · Aug 12, 2016

Neil said:
Care to explain why you state that clip is clearly showing rigging the rack? Because I just don't see it being rigged. It's hard to rig a rack on a template.

I agree that he probably wanted the rack perfectly tight so it was not a case of introducing gaps, as some players do intentionally.

However, technically, according to the official rules, pattern racking is unsportsmanlike conduct. Evidently this tournament ignored that rule and did not have the 3-point rule. Other than that the break appears to have been legal.

Whether nine ball is interesting when played like that is a separate question.

Gorramjayne · Aug 12, 2016

Neil said:
Care to explain why you state that clip is clearly showing rigging the rack? Because I just don't see it being rigged. It's hard to rig a rack on a template.

All tournament he was intentionally pattern racking. On at least 80% of racks he'd have the 2, 3 all up top, once in a while he'd vary it by putting the 2 or 3 as a wing ball, but essentially he was setting up the rack so he'd have a strong chance at a combination on the 9, without having to shoot even half a rack, which he did multiple times against Orcollo alone. He's also been warned in other tournaments about twisting 8-ball racks to wire a wing ball. Sad really, because he has the skill not to need to resort to these sorts of things.

The 9-Ball Break- How much luck is involved?

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Hearing the balls.....

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Dead money

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WO double hemlock

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