Don't counter lucky play with safeties!

Push&Pool said:

#1 They won't be good at kicking 2-3 rail while aiming, but if they just direct their cue in the general position for shooting the OB and blast away full power, there's a big chance they'll drop something...

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Their IQ will be the only thing dropping.

Push&Pool said:

#2 If you're playing a low-to-mid-skilled banger, you don't have to worry about him locking you up (at least not intentionally), so there's not much risk in playing aggressively. I don't see how this advice is ridiculous, it can only be more or less helpful depending on the situation, but I see no way it could hurt your game against bangers. Why so many arrogant replies from everyone?

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Why? Because your posts are consistent in their idiocy. Let me guess, you're the smartest of your friends?

Edit: Hey, Dryden, what do you mean? He's a pool genius from a secret country where he's never seen a pro run a rack.

You're suggesting that in order to combat a lesser skilled yet luckier player, you should just throw out any skill advantage you have in order to rely on luck. Your strategy is self defeating.

I just don't see how someone could possibly look at what you typed and think to themselves, "Yup this is good advice here. I'm really going to help some pool players out with this gold." Personally I think you're trolling since you just make blanket statements and don't bother backing any of it up with logic or evidence. :thumbup:

Push&Pool said:

Actually, I was thinking of something in between. A high skilled player (maybe professional) comes in a bar where all games are played by local bar rules (slop counts) and is challenged by a mid-to-high level banger (which means he can actually hit something besides blowing stuff up). The bangers starts out by missing one or two shots. The pro proceeds to drop some balls in, but then encounters a problematic OB and plays a safe, certain the banger will miss. The banger than blasts away at the nearest rail in general direction of a cluster and something falls in. He now has open field full of his balls (now separated from each other). He picks off some easy ones and then blasts away again at a harder one. If it doeasn't drop, there a probability he'll play an unintentional safety. If that happens the pro's in problems again. If the banger's lucklasts a little longer, there's an actual possibility he may win.

Now, if we go back and say the pro tried to hit that problem OB nevertheless and missed, the banger would have an easier shot at his balls. That means he's much more likely to try to hit the ball by aiming, hoping he'll make it. Under the pressure, those bangers often miss similar shots. If he fails, the pro can proceed to clean up the table. The banger will become nervous and angry at the same time and will play even worse, blasting around ar trying some inaccurate shots, giving the pro a fairly easy win and some good cash. Now if my analysis is wrong, please be polite and simply correct me. Thanks.

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All of your ideas here are really crazy. You are saying that a "mid level to high level player" has a better chance of making a ball by NOT aiming than by aiming? That must be some new statistical method I have not heard of where random chance wins over planning most of the time. Even if the player was a total beginner, TRYING to do something would succeed more often than TRYING NOT to do something.

The one time this rule fails would be if you are in an elevator with your boss or a good looking girl, and you are really trying NOT to fart. In most cases, you will let out a stinker anyway.

You have been "corrected" so many times by now, you should have learned something about how to play pool, since you have not and keep posting the same... shall we say "interesting" ideas, the only assumption is that you are incapable of learning, so your posts just become amusing and a great source of fun for us.

Push&Pool said:

Actually, I was thinking of something in between. A high skilled player (maybe professional) comes in a bar where all games are played by local bar rules (slop counts) and is challenged by a mid-to-high level banger (which means he can actually hit something besides blowing stuff up). The bangers starts out by missing one or two shots. The pro proceeds to drop some balls in, but then encounters a problematic OB and plays a safe, certain the banger will miss. The banger than blasts away at the nearest rail in general direction of a cluster and something falls in. He now has open field full of his balls (now separated from each other). He picks off some easy ones and then blasts away again at a harder one. If it doeasn't drop, there a probability he'll play an unintentional safety. If that happens the pro's in problems again. If the banger's lucklasts a little longer, there's an actual possibility he may win.

Now, if we go back and say the pro tried to hit that problem OB nevertheless and missed, the banger would have an easier shot at his balls. That means he's much more likely to try to hit the ball by aiming, hoping he'll make it. Under the pressure, those bangers often miss similar shots. If he fails, the pro can proceed to clean up the table. The banger will become nervous and angry at the same time and will play even worse, blasting around ar trying some inaccurate shots, giving the pro a fairly easy win and some good cash. Now if my analysis is wrong, please be polite and simply correct me. Thanks.

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Push&Pool said:

Actually, I was thinking of something in between. A high skilled player (maybe professional) comes in a bar where all games are played by local bar rules (slop counts) and is challenged by a mid-to-high level banger (which means he can actually hit something besides blowing stuff up). The bangers starts out by missing one or two shots. The pro proceeds to drop some balls in, but then encounters a problematic OB and plays a safe, certain the banger will miss. The banger than blasts away at the nearest rail in general direction of a cluster and something falls in. He now has open field full of his balls (now separated from each other). He picks off some easy ones and then blasts away again at a harder one. If it doeasn't drop, there a probability he'll play an unintentional safety. If that happens the pro's in problems again. If the banger's lucklasts a little longer, there's an actual possibility he may win.

Now, if we go back and say the pro tried to hit that problem OB nevertheless and missed, the banger would have an easier shot at his balls. That means he's much more likely to try to hit the ball by aiming, hoping he'll make it. Under the pressure, those bangers often miss similar shots. If he fails, the pro can proceed to clean up the table. The banger will become nervous and angry at the same time and will play even worse, blasting around ar trying some inaccurate shots, giving the pro a fairly easy win and some good cash. Now if my analysis is wrong, please be polite and simply correct me. Thanks.

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You mix "possible" and "probable" enough to sound legitimate. Anything is possible. It's possible that I win a 1 in 1,000,000,000 drawing. That does not make it probable (only 1/1,000,000,000 in fact.)

I will make my choices based on what maximizes my probability of winning and when my opponent is a weekend drunk barbox banger (aka me in college), then that choice will be a lock-up safety.

Push&Pool said:

Sorry, what??? Throwing away any skill advantage... I guess you're the one trolling, did you even read what I said? So leaving defense aside and using your superior aiming skills and position play to put pressure on the bangers and defeat them quickly is "relying on luck"? And you complain that I don't back my posts up with logic :wink:

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Lets break this down. You say you're going to rely on superior aiming to beat them in place of defense, yet you also say that it isn't necessary in reference to the 2-3 rail kicks where you would just "shoot in the general direction", so which is it?

Also in your other scenario you suggest you could be playing a high level player (even a professional) and expect to miss once or even twice and still win the game. I'm just a B level player and I would never expect to miss two times in a game against a similarly skilled opponent and still win.

The way you lay it out you're assuming that every roll will automatically go your way, which is unreasonable to expect, and more importantly your relying on your opponent making a mistake to win instead of just controlling the table. Your line of thinking is faulty and being nice obviously won't make you see that.

How does leaving the banger a makable shot improve the odds vs. leaving the banger an unmakable shot? Your logic is that he'll be "luckier" with the unmakable shot and unlucky with the makable shot. That makes no sense.

It also goes against experience. When I've been in that situation and decided to have some fun and go for low percentage shots, I've given the banger better odds to win. It's fun to play for wild shots, but it's not a winning strategy.

Otherwise, bangers would be taking better players money all the time...and that isn't happening.

Las Vegas was built on appealing to the banger philosophy -- "Maybe I'll get lucky!"

Like the casino, the better player has an edge. All he needs to do is consistently exploit that edge and he'll take all the banger's money.

The casino would not be successful if it gave up its edge, hoping it can be luckier than the banger.

I think you need to get out more, PP.
What moves are you going to execute when a real player shows up....
...and hangs an eight-pack on yo' ass?

Work on your game instead of trying to figure out how to win whilst remaining a banger.

Push&Pool said:

Since everyone ignored my last post in "Lucking out" thread, I have to repost it separately...

When they play opponents who shoot hard and try to luck balls in as much as possible, a lot of players counters with safeties and teaches others to do the same. Not only this advice is wrong, but it's also dangerous for development of future players... When playing against a usually weaker opponent who often tries to luck balls in by shooting hard, playing safeties is a common mistake people tend to make. Being a profound and experienced banger myself, I can assure you I'm very glad when I have to play a highly skilled player who spends most of his shots playing safe and trying to lock me up, especially when he sees I'm not the greatest shooter of all time. I blitz the defense he made with a few well positioned full-powered shots and before you know it I'm on the black. Then he tries to respond, shoots some difficult ball and misses, giving me a fairly easy win, knowing he'd most likely destroy me if he played smart.

Bangers who rely on slop shots will usually try to persuade you to play some bar rules version which has no punishment for that type of play. Decline if you can, but many times you won't get that option. And if you're a skilled tournament player, you don't even need to worry about the ruleset. Just play aggressively from the start. Don't even thnk about safeties, play simple position, or even sacrifice position play on certain shots and shoot one ball at a time. It's a much better solution than pulling back and defending. Just keep dropping balls, and if you miss, you'll actually want to leave a potentially easy shot for the opponent. If he tries to carefully aim and shoot at something pocketable, there's a larger chance he'll miss and leave himself open than if he decides to blast away. Think of the opponent as of a large piece of artillery. It's big, clumsy and innaccurate, so as long as you're on the move, it will have a hard time shooting you, but if you stop and try to build a large bunker instead, it'll rip you apart like a damn pinata. If you move forward, keep up the pressure and go for the 8 ball first, you'll be on the winning side 95% of time.

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I notice your location is currently earth. If your spaceship ever gets near Tucson, come on down to Pockets Billiards. I will play your rules (slop) 8 ball. You can pick any table and I'll even let you shoot with the butt of the cue. Bring tons of cash to make me nervous.

Weird, when I was scooping up my great dane's turds off the lawn yesterday I thought I had seen the biggest piece of shit ever, and then I read this thread.

Push&Pool said:

Actually, I was thinking of something in between. A high skilled player (maybe professional) comes in a bar where all games are played by local bar rules (slop counts) and is challenged by a mid-to-high level banger (which means he can actually hit something besides blowing stuff up). The bangers starts out by missing one or two shots. The pro proceeds to drop some balls in, but then encounters a problematic OB and plays a safe, certain the banger will miss. The banger than blasts away at the nearest rail in general direction of a cluster and something falls in. He now has open field full of his balls (now separated from each other). He picks off some easy ones and then blasts away again at a harder one. If it doeasn't drop, there a probability he'll play an unintentional safety. If that happens the pro's in problems again. If the banger's lucklasts a little longer, there's an actual possibility he may win.

Now, if we go back and say the pro tried to hit that problem OB nevertheless and missed, the banger would have an easier shot at his balls. That means he's much more likely to try to hit the ball by aiming, hoping he'll make it. Under the pressure, those bangers often miss similar shots. If he fails, the pro can proceed to clean up the table. The banger will become nervous and angry at the same time and will play even worse, blasting around ar trying some inaccurate shots, giving the pro a fairly easy win and some good cash. Now if my analysis is wrong, please be polite and simply correct me. Thanks.

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Alright, I'll try.
There are some major assumptions here that are wrong.

The first is you don't understand the sheer SIZE of the skill gap between a professional and an 'advanced banger'.
There are youtube video and carefully gathered statistics, but I can tell you won't understand until you see it for yourself.

The pro not twice as likely to win as the banger, he's thirty times more likely to win.
In a race to 100, playing barbox 8 ball, a C player (someone who has only run a rack like 3 times in his life)
will win somewhere between 0 and 4 games.
That's not an exaggeration. I would bet real money on it.

Taking a recent TAR match, a top pro broke and ran 52% of the racks
(8 ball, 9 foot table, slightly tight pockets) without the other player shooting at all.
The same player has gone as high as 70-80% on a good day.

One such good day was when this player (shane van boening) played the top filipino (dennis orcullo).
Dennis made every ball he shot at... zero misses. He ran every open rack when he had the opportunity.
He didn't play safe because at their level it's 100% offense, you run out the rack or you lose.
He made zero mistakes. And he LOST.

Because the other guy broke better. And the other guy also makes very very few mistakes.
He might miss 3 times over the course of 50 racks.

So here's how it would go if a pro played a C player.
This is where you have some wrong assumptions.

The bangers starts out by missing one or two shots.

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After one shot it's over. The pro runs the rack. There is no "starts out by missing one or two shots".
Missing one shot is the end of the game at least 70% of the time. If by some miracle he gets a 2nd try
and misses again, the game is done 99% of the time. Pros don't take 3 or 4 turns to finish up an open rack of 8b.

The banger than blasts away at the nearest rail in general direction of a cluster and something falls in.

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The odds are against something falling in. If he tried this over and over he will miss more often than make a ball.
And only half the balls count. Even with the most ghetto bar rules, he doesn't get to keep shooting if he slops
in one of the pro's balls. The odds of making a ball on a kick (even at warp speed) are very small. Maybe 10%.

He now has open field full of his balls (now separated from each other).

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Or, his careless blast knocked wide open balls into a bad place and tied them up.
There's no reason to assume everything will just work out. The table is getting rearranged randomly.
Half the time it will work out and half the time it won't.

He picks off some easy ones and then blasts away again at a harder one.
If it doeasn't drop, there a probability he'll play an unintentional safety. If that happens the pro's in problems again.

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There's a possibility he gets the unintentional safety. It's a small one. He would have to literally hide
the cue ball from all the possible balls the pro could shoot, forcing them to kick.
Simply leaving the pro a thin cut or long distance is not a safety. A pro will make those shots,
nearly every single time on a barbox. You'd have to get very lucky to leave someone with 0 makeable
shots after a random blast.

Now, if we go back and say the pro tried to hit that problem OB nevertheless and missed, the banger would have an easier shot at his balls.

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So you're saying that if the pro had unwisely attempted to take a flyer at his difficult problem ball,
rather than wisely playing a safe, he might actually lose the game.

Think about that one for a second.
That's actually correct, and it shows why your original post doesn't make sense.

Push&Pool said:

Since everyone ignored my last post in "Lucking out" thread, I have to repost it separately...

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Hey, I think you are on to something here... from a strategic standpoint, this may be a winner. Thus, why don't you bet some cash on this new theory, and enjoy the benefits of your brilliant new discovery.....

I think I can find about 100 A players that will line up to play you if you're just a decent banger.....and you play even, and they MUST play safety at least once per game, in a race to 25?

You will be robbing them, no ??

If Push/Killer has kids, someday they'll be saying this if they ever read the forums:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsNJGojyQMw

A couple of quick points. If I'm playing someone far below my skill level if we're playing even then it doesn't matter what my strategy is because no matter what they do or what I do (agressive or defensive) I'm going to win easily in a race as short as 5 or 7 and probably in a race to 3 or 2 also. If we're playing using handicaps and I'm giving up the nuts your strategy makes even less sense because there is absolutely no reason to be aggressive when they only need a few balls to win the whole match. I feel dumb for even replying to this. Oh well it beats another "whats wrong with pool" "bonus ball" or "which x is better" thread.

Guys, this is my fault. Push actually plays at my local and he saw my AZBilliards shirt a few months ago. I'll snap some video of him playing if he's out tonight and then you'll see the pure genius and skill it takes to snap this kind of win off.



.

Push&Pool said:

...back in the day

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I've never heard that before...