Question for Dennis Walsh
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alstl
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Question for Dennis Walsh - 12-27-2017, 08:41 AM

A recent thread about the differences between 14.1 and rotation games caused me to wonder how often top players set up a break shot in 14.1 and get successfully through the first rack with a viable break shot.

Do you have any data from your Derby City 14.1 challenge showing each and every attempt by every player?
  
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12-27-2017, 11:37 AM

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Originally Posted by alstl View Post
A recent thread about the differences between 14.1 and rotation games caused me to wonder how often top players set up a break shot in 14.1 and get successfully through the first rack with a viable break shot.

Do you have any data from your Derby City 14.1 challenge showing each and every attempt by every player?
This post answers your question for the 2017 DCC Challenge: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpo...7&postcount=56

They made it through the first rack on 59% of the 857 attempts.

11% of the break shots on the 2nd or later rack of a run were unsuccessful.

Last edited by AtLarge; 12-27-2017 at 11:43 AM.
  
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12-27-2017, 01:24 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
This post answers your question for the 2017 DCC Challenge: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpo...7&postcount=56

They made it through the first rack on 59% of the 857 attempts.

11% of the break shots on the 2nd or later rack of a run were unsuccessful.
Thanks for the information.
  
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Bob Jewett
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12-27-2017, 08:32 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by alstl View Post
A recent thread about the differences between 14.1 and rotation games caused me to wonder how often top players set up a break shot in 14.1 and get successfully through the first rack with a viable break shot.

Do you have any data from your Derby City 14.1 challenge showing each and every attempt by every player?
If you want to go back a ways (and probably on easier tables), Mosconi and Cranfield and the other top players in the 1940s-1950s were quite a bit higher on exhibition/practice runs. I calculated one time (see my June 2006 Billiards Digest article) that Cranfield was perhaps 99% on individual shots and around 90% to get into the next rack from a break shot (on his home table).


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14.1 - 12-27-2017, 08:41 PM

I wish I could play 14.1 every day. That being said I get to play more than most as my best friend and I love the game and play quite often. Just yesterday we play 2 games to 150 and 1 game to 100. About 7 hours play in one day. Pretty awesome I would say. In addition our next session of 14.1 league starts in 2 weeks. We have 24 players this coming session too.

Thanks

Kevin


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01-03-2018, 06:58 AM

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Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
If you want to go back a ways (and probably on easier tables), Mosconi and Cranfield and the other top players in the 1940s-1950s were quite a bit higher on exhibition/practice runs. I calculated one time (see my June 2006 Billiards Digest article) that Cranfield was perhaps 99% on individual shots and around 90% to get into the next rack from a break shot (on his home table).
This is interesting. The impact of easier tables can't be discounted, but is there another message here? I'm guessing that poor position, rather than poor shotmaking, causes more runs to end today than was the case in that era. If that is true, does it suggest that the "old school" approach of softer break shots and chipping away at the stack (to heighten the odds of controlling the CB and ensuring a next shot) should be used by more players today?

Separately, I'm curious whether, in the Derby event, there are certain ball in hand (BIH) opening break shots (set ups) that lead to a higher percentage of successful first racks than other BIH set ups.

Thanks in advance.
  
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Bob Jewett
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01-03-2018, 11:32 AM

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Originally Posted by Seth C. View Post
This is interesting. The impact of easier tables can't be discounted, but is there another message here? I'm guessing that poor position, rather than poor shotmaking, causes more runs to end today than was the case in that era. If that is true, does it suggest that the "old school" approach of softer break shots and chipping away at the stack (to heighten the odds of controlling the CB and ensuring a next shot) should be used by more players today?

Separately, I'm curious whether, in the Derby event, there are certain ball in hand (BIH) opening break shots (set ups) that lead to a higher percentage of successful first racks than other BIH set ups.

Thanks in advance.
Sadly, there is little good video of the players from before the 1970s to allow an accurate comparison. Sigel, Rempe and West would probably be the best available examples.

At the DCC I think nearly everyone uses the object ball on the center spot break. A few use the traditional side of the rack break. A few may use the "draw to the end rail from the side of the rack" break.


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01-03-2018, 07:24 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
This post answers your question for the 2017 DCC Challenge: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpo...7&postcount=56

They made it through the first rack on 59% of the 857 attempts.

11% of the break shots on the 2nd or later rack of a run were unsuccessful.


This is good information - thank you. Really helps to put things into perspective. Sometimes, I get frustrated setting up break shots and not getting. Through the rack. But if pro players only got through one rack 59% of the time, it makes this B player feel a little better about my attempts!


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01-03-2018, 11:40 PM

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This is good information - thank you. Really helps to put things into perspective. Sometimes, I get frustrated setting up break shots and not getting. Through the rack. But if pro players only got through one rack 59% of the time, it makes this B player feel a little better about my attempts!


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While it was 59% in total for all 37 entrants, the range was pretty wide. Three of the entrants, names unknown to me and probably not pros, got beyond one rack just once in their collective 36 attempts.

On the other end of the range, 4 players (Schmidt, Hohmann, Chinakhov, and Boyes) each managed to get beyond the first rack 83% of the time. The top 10 players on this measure ran 15 or more balls in 77% of their attempts.
  
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01-04-2018, 12:31 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
While it was 59% in total for all 37 entrants, the range was pretty wide. Three of the entrants, names unknown to me and probably not pros, got beyond one rack just once in their collective 36 attempts.

On the other end of the range, 4 players (Schmidt, Hohmann, Chinakhov, and Boyes) each managed to get beyond the first rack 83% of the time. The top 10 players on this measure ran 15 or more balls in 77% of their attempts.
I think the first rack is usually easier to get through because they begin with an ideal break shot. The other thing to consider is that the four best averages from all averages are likely above the "true" averages that those four players would have in another 100 attempts. (Regression to the mean)

I may have dropped some decimal points, but I calculate that with 4*12 = 48 attempts by the top 4 players you would expect a high run of 300 or more if their true averages are 83% to get through the rack (and into the next).

One year at DCC Hohmann failed to get past 50, IIRC.


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01-04-2018, 11:14 PM

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Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
I think the first rack is usually easier to get through because they begin with an ideal break shot. The other thing to consider is that the four best averages from all averages are likely above the "true" averages that those four players would have in another 100 attempts. (Regression to the mean)

I may have dropped some decimal points, but I calculate that with 4*12 = 48 attempts by the top 4 players you would expect a high run of 300 or more if their true averages are 83% to get through the rack (and into the next).

One year at DCC Hohmann failed to get past 50, IIRC.
That group of 4 (Schmidt, Hohmann, Chinakhov, Boyes) who had the highest rate of getting through the first rack (83%) averaged 67% on their subsequent racks. That was about the same as the 68% average on 2nd and later racks for the group of 37 players as a whole.

The top 2 players in getting through racks (including the first rack of each attempt) were Orcollo at 79%, who completed 90 of the 114 racks he faced (with 2 buy-ins), and Shaw at 75%, who fully cleared 145 of 193 racks (with 4 buy-ins). Nine other players were at 70% - 74%.
  
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01-05-2018, 07:51 PM

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That group of 4 (Schmidt, Hohmann, Chinakhov, Boyes) who had the highest rate of getting through the first rack (83%) averaged 67% on their subsequent racks. That was about the same as the 68% average on 2nd and later racks for the group of 37 players as a whole.

The top 2 players in getting through racks (including the first rack of each attempt) were Orcollo at 79%, who completed 90 of the 114 racks he faced (with 2 buy-ins), and Shaw at 75%, who fully cleared 145 of 193 racks (with 4 buy-ins). Nine other players were at 70% - 74%.
With that clearance percentage and 24 tries, Orcullo would be 50% to run 210 and Shaw would be about 47% for 210 with 48 attempts. At the upper end of clearance percentage a small change in percent makes a big difference in how many tries you need to get to a certain goal (in the sense of being even money to get there).


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01-05-2018, 10:24 PM

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With that clearance percentage and 24 tries, Orcullo would be 50% to run 210 and Shaw would be about 47% for 210 with 48 attempts. At the upper end of clearance percentage a small change in percent makes a big difference in how many tries you need to get to a certain goal (in the sense of being even money to get there).
Neat! The high runs for Orcollo and Shaw were, respectively, 210 (!) and 175.
  
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