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cleary
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01-12-2018, 07:41 PM

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Originally Posted by alphadog View Post
Damn Jason just when I thought... you come up with this. Priceless. I think 815 is probanly about right.
I will say this,about cleary,he does seem to a sceptic about many things,fargorate doesnt garner all his cynicism.
Could you please make a list of things Iíve bashed? Or that Iím sceptical about? More than anything Iím sceptical about this claim.

Every Ďconcerní I have for Fargo is not only valid, it comes from caring. I would love nothing more than Fargo (or similar) to be perfect and used across the board. The game needs this and it needs to properly use it. Unfortunately itís not properly using it and itís not, in my opinion, close to perfect. I will say that Mike Page has done a damn good job though considering itís not worth the time.

But yes, please... continue to act like you know me. lol
  
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01-13-2018, 09:23 AM

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Originally Posted by tucson9ball View Post
The only discrepancy I have personally found is switching from 7ft to 9ft tables/games.
If you take somebody who plays 8 ball on a bar box all the time and let's say their rating is around 550. Now, you move that player to a 9ft table and make them play 9 ball. I think you will find that they will play closer to 520 speed in most cases.
The bar table players tend to have lil imperfections in their stroke that get magnified on the 9ft table. Also, when playing 8 ball, they can get out of line and just decide to shoot a different ball of the same group. This option does not work for 9 ball....get out of line and your inning is more than likely over.
Players with higher Fargo, let's say 650+, usually can play the same on either the 7ft or 9ft. A better stroke equals better position play.
Anyhoo, just my .02
That is less than a 10% difference in performance, not bad at all for a human, and if the player that plays has matches in the system on 9 footers, it will all be averaged in. It's not a flaw in the system, it's a flaw of the data you give it. Just have that player play more on larger tables if they want a rating showing that. You can't give a result from no data.

A 550 will not play as a 550 all the time, 550 is just their average.


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01-13-2018, 01:33 PM

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Originally Posted by cleary View Post
Could you please make a list of things Iíve bashed? Or that Iím sceptical about? More than anything Iím sceptical about this claim.

Every Ďconcerní I have for Fargo is not only valid, it comes from caring. I would love nothing more than Fargo (or similar) to be perfect and used across the board. The game needs this and it needs to properly use it. Unfortunately itís not properly using it and itís not, in my opinion, close to perfect. I will say that Mike Page has done a damn good job though considering itís not worth the time.

But yes, please... continue to act like you know me. lol
I dont know you. I do believe you are a decent guy and a intelligent poster. As I recently found out in a thread I started,re the Nagy story,what one writes is not always whats read😉
As for you being sceptical,well you are sceptical that you are sceptical? You are sceptical that Florian can play above 550,sceptical about Buffalo Hunt,and seem to be sceptical about most betting lines😎
I am glad that you can see the value of fargorate,and like you I question its soundness.
Mike has had a acceptable answer for every question posed thus far. Like you say it is not perfect but you have to appreciate the guy who dances when others cant hear the music.


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01-13-2018, 02:37 PM

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Originally Posted by cleary View Post
Could you please make a list of things Iíve bashed? Or that Iím sceptical about? More than anything Iím sceptical about this claim.

Every Ďconcerní I have for Fargo is not only valid, it comes from caring. I would love nothing more than Fargo (or similar) to be perfect and used across the board. The game needs this and it needs to properly use it. Unfortunately itís not properly using it and itís not, in my opinion, close to perfect. I will say that Mike Page has done a damn good job though considering itís not worth the time.

But yes, please... continue to act like you know me. lol
Isn't your name Andrew or something like that?

JC


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01-13-2018, 03:42 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by tucson9ball View Post
The only discrepancy I have personally found is switching from 7ft to 9ft tables/games.
If you take somebody who plays 8 ball on a bar box all the time and let's say their rating is around 550. Now, you move that player to a 9ft table and make them play 9 ball. I think you will find that they will play closer to 520 speed in most cases.
The bar table players tend to have lil imperfections in their stroke that get magnified on the 9ft table. Also, when playing 8 ball, they can get out of line and just decide to shoot a different ball of the same group. This option does not work for 9 ball....get out of line and your inning is more than likely over.
Players with higher Fargo, let's say 650+, usually can play the same on either the 7ft or 9ft. A better stroke equals better position play.
Anyhoo, just my .02
FargoRate measures performance against other players ability, not a players ability on various games or varying table sizes.

The algorithm is only a probability prediction, albeit an accurate one, but there are many variables that may effect the outcome of any given match.


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01-13-2018, 03:44 PM

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Michael D.



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01-13-2018, 03:56 PM

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Originally Posted by JC View Post
In certain spectrum that's probably true. The discrepancy opens up wider for 8 ball when the weaker player can't run out an open table.

As I said all the stronger players in our little bca league went down some points during summer rotation and all of them are on the increase with the 8 ball season under way. It's not huge due to robustness acting as a shock absorber but it's there and it's not nothing.

JC
If they are weak enough that they can't run out an open table, then a player 100 points better probably can't run out a table with trouble. The better player will probably either a) screw up trying to break stuff out by missing or scratching or b) play very conservatively and eventually sell out by screwing up a safety. They will probably do this often enough that the lesser rated player can win 33% of the games.

Think about it. A 450 player playing a 550 player. 550 player can run open tables but isn't really the favorite to run out a tough table. They should be decent at playing safe, etc..but still make a lot of unforced errors. Enough for the lower level player to get a few easy outs and win their share. You see this all the time in bar tournaments. Player A (450) breaks and runs 3 balls then misses. Player B (550) tries for a tough runout but misses with 8 ball and other ball on table. Player A only has 4 balls and plays a little conservatively and makes a couple then leaves player B a long shot. Player B misses and Player A runs two balls for the win. Maybe a few more innings to make it interesting.

550 player playing a 650 player - 650 player should run out even a lot when the table is difficult, but not every time. If they leave an open table, a 550 player is good enough to run out when they do and even play safe successfully often enough to win 33% of the games.

650 vs. a 750 - 750 is expected to control the table every time they get a shot. But if they scratch on a break or make a mistake, 650 has an excellent chance to run out. So I could see them winning 33% of the games here too. A 650 can break and run a few games during the course of a set too.


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01-13-2018, 04:32 PM

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Originally Posted by sixpack View Post
If they are weak enough that they can't run out an open table, then a player 100 points better probably can't run out a table with trouble. The better player will probably either a) screw up trying to break stuff out by missing or scratching or b) play very conservatively and eventually sell out by screwing up a safety. They will probably do this often enough that the lesser rated player can win 33% of the games.

Think about it. A 450 player playing a 550 player. 550 player can run open tables but isn't really the favorite to run out a tough table. They should be decent at playing safe, etc..but still make a lot of unforced errors. Enough for the lower level player to get a few easy outs and win their share. You see this all the time in bar tournaments. Player A (450) breaks and runs 3 balls then misses. Player B (550) tries for a tough runout but misses with 8 ball and other ball on table. Player A only has 4 balls and plays a little conservatively and makes a couple then leaves player B a long shot. Player B misses and Player A runs two balls for the win. Maybe a few more innings to make it interesting.

550 player playing a 650 player - 650 player should run out even a lot when the table is difficult, but not every time. If they leave an open table, a 550 player is good enough to run out when they do and even play safe successfully often enough to win 33% of the games.

650 vs. a 750 - 750 is expected to control the table every time they get a shot. But if they scratch on a break or make a mistake, 650 has an excellent chance to run out. So I could see them winning 33% of the games here too. A 650 can break and run a few games during the course of a set too.

With more league data arriving in the system it's now easy to put human bias into your perspective as you can now put many more faces to fargo ratings.

My point was that there seems to be a "sweet spot" where the 100 point dog is a better favorite in 9 ball than 8 ball. I believe it's around my personal rating of 585 compared to 485 now that I have a good idea what type players this number represents.

But I could be wrong. I often am.


JC


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01-13-2018, 04:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by JC View Post
With more league data arriving in the system it's now easy to put human bias into your perspective as you can now put many more faces to fargo ratings.

My point was that there seems to be a "sweet spot" where the 100 point dog is a better favorite in 9 ball than 8 ball. I believe it's around my personal rating of 585 compared to 485 now that I have a good idea what type players this number represents.

But I could be wrong. I often am.


JC
I think you are correct. I have been thinking about it since I posted earlier and I think there is definitely something to what your describing. Iím about the same as you, I think, and when I play someone around that 450-485 Mark they donít have to win a game for hours. Itís a combination of game management and doing just enough to make sure they canít win.


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01-14-2018, 08:43 AM

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Originally Posted by alphadog View Post
I dont know you. I do believe you are a decent guy and a intelligent poster. As I recently found out in a thread I started,re the Nagy story,what one writes is not always whats read😉
As for you being sceptical,well you are sceptical that you are sceptical? You are sceptical that Florian can play above 550,sceptical about Buffalo Hunt,and seem to be sceptical about most betting lines😎
I am glad that you can see the value of fargorate,and like you I question its soundness.
Mike has had a acceptable answer for every question posed thus far. Like you say it is not perfect but you have to appreciate the guy who dances when others cant hear the music.
I donít remember saying a Florian isnít above a 550 but I do not think heís a good player. He could be if he applied himself to playing the game rather than trick shots. Heís very talented. Iíve know Jason Hunt since about 2007. Betting lines... You may have got me there.

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01-14-2018, 08:45 AM

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Isn't your name Andrew or something like that?

JC
Yea, something like that.
  
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01-14-2018, 09:03 AM

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Originally Posted by Mrdodd72 View Post
FargoRate measures performance against other players ability, not a players ability on various games or varying table sizes.

The algorithm is only a probability prediction, albeit an accurate one, but there are many variables that may effect the outcome of any given match.
Tucsonís post is spot on. As he said, when that 550 switches to a big table, heís not able to keep up with a player of the same rating who normally plays on big tables.

I play on a 9í table almost 100%. I would feel confident spotting someone (on any table) the same rating as me who only plays on a bar table. Because I know my ability will increase on his table and his will decrease on mine. I would be the fav on any table. But if theyíre the same rating as me and play on 9í tables, I would need to play them even. We would both increase ability on little table and play as normal on a big table.
  
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01-14-2018, 09:48 AM

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Originally Posted by cleary View Post
Tucsonís post is spot on. As he said, when that 550 switches to a big table, heís not able to keep up with a player of the same rating who normally plays on big tables.

I play on a 9í table almost 100%. I would feel confident spotting someone (on any table) the same rating as me who only plays on a bar table. Because I know my ability will increase on his table and his will decrease on mine. I would be the fav on any table. But if theyíre the same rating as me and play on 9í tables, I would need to play them even. We would both increase ability on little table and play as normal on a big table.
It was when we started reporting our league results to Fargorate and our players became established that I started to understand better what skill set some of the lower numbers refer to. Prior to that all I could do was look at the higher rated players who have a ton of robustness due to the fact that pool is their life.

As far as I can tell you don't have enough games in the system to be able to make that judgement. So what is your fargo rating? That matters because without experience it seems hard for you to have insights based on anything but prejudices.

I do understand that the numbers are based on data of previous results so in that regard they have to be accurate. The 450 players did indeed lose 2 out of three to the 550s. Can't argue that.

JC


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01-14-2018, 10:36 AM

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Originally Posted by cleary View Post
Tucsonís post is spot on. As he said, when that 550 switches to a big table, heís not able to keep up with a player of the same rating who normally plays on big tables.
I think his conclusion--what you stated here--is spot on. His analysis not so much.

Quote:
I play on a 9í table almost 100%. I would feel confident spotting someone (on any table) the same rating as me who only plays on a bar table. Because I know my ability will increase on his table and his will decrease on mine. I would be the fav on any table.
You would be making a mistake here. If you play 550 speed and exclusively on a 9-foot table, you are not actually a more skilled player than the 550 who plays exclusively on a bar table. If he jumped on your table, yes he would perform below 550 speed. Tucson suggests 30 points--I don't know that sounds about right. But if you jumped on his table, you also would play below 550 speed, by about the same amount.

In both cases, this is a familiarity issue. Both players are 550-speed, and both underperform on unfamiliar equipment... The underperforming speed--520 for the sake of argument--is not a real skill level. It is soft. If the player played every day for a month against good competition on the unfamiliar equipment, the player would jump up to near 550 speed.


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01-14-2018, 10:49 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by JC View Post
It was when we started reporting our league results to Fargorate and our players became established that I started to understand better what skill set some of the lower numbers refer to. Prior to that all I could do was look at the higher rated players who have a ton of robustness due to the fact that pool is their life.

As far as I can tell you don't have enough games in the system to be able to make that judgement. So what is your fargo rating? That matters because without experience it seems hard for you to have insights based on anything but prejudices.

I do understand that the numbers are based on data of previous results so in that regard they have to be accurate. The 450 players did indeed lose 2 out of three to the 550s. Can't argue that.

JC
The tournaments I play in don't report to Fargo so my rating is not only inaccurate, it's irrelevant to the conversation. I'm only one person... There's no prejudice at all. While my rating isn't established, a lot of others that I know from around the country are established. I understand how it works.
  
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