Two hopeful trends for pool's future...

chefjeff · Apr 15, 2018

I hear of "the problem with pool is..." arguments quite often here on azb. Two of those problems mentioned are:

1. Young people would rather do devices than hit balls with sticks.

2. Commercial real estate prices make opening a pool hall prohibitive.

Here are 2 articles that refute both of those trends:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/generation-z-is-already-bored-by-the-internet

...As members of what has been dubbed “Generation Z,” a cohort that spans those born roughly between the years 1998 and 2010, today’s teens and tweens have had unparalleled access to technology. Many have had smartphones since elementary, if not middle school. They’ve grown up with high-speed internet, laptops, and social media.

It’s tempting to think that these devices, with their endless ability to stimulate, offer salvation from the type of mind-numbing boredom that is so core to the teen experience. But humans adapt to the conditions that surround them, and technical advances are no different. What seemed novel to one generation feels passé to the next. To many teens, smartphones and the internet have already lost their appeal....

and...

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/04/13/a...te-prices-fall-to-lowest-in-nearly-two-years/

...Commercial real estate prices collapsed nearly 40% during the Financial Crisis, according to the Green Street Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI). Then prices more than doubled from the low in May 2009 and peaked in September 2017, when the index was 27% above the crazy peak of the prior bubble.

But since September 2017, the index has dropped 1.7%, including a 1% drop in March from February. It is now down 2.1% from March last year and back where it had been in May 2016.

This chart of the CPPI shows the phenomenal eight-year boom that has turned into a decline:

Financial survival pressures will bring down the rents for large real estate properties as stores are closing rapidly now. If pool marketers can tap into the "bored" generation and show them the exciting world of pool, future customers and players will increase a bunch.

Whadda ya think, am I crazy or what?

Jeff Livingston

drlouis · Apr 15, 2018

All I can tell you is my "glued-to-the-xbox" son who resisted a trip to a local bar that has a few valley tables (time away from his true love) one afternoon told me later that he really had fun. So anecdotal evidence I. Support of point #1

Island Drive · Apr 15, 2018

Jeff....I like how your thinking.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/genera...y-the-internet

Quote:

...As members of what has been dubbed “Generation Z,” a cohort that spans those born roughly between the years 1998 and 2010, today’s teens and tweens have had unparalleled access to technology. Many have had smartphones since elementary, if not middle school. They’ve grown up with high-speed internet, laptops, and social media.

It’s tempting to think that these devices, with their endless ability to stimulate, offer salvation from the type of mind-numbing boredom that is so core to the teen experience. But humans adapt to the conditions that surround them, and technical advances are no different. What seemed novel to one generation feels passé to the next. To many teens, smartphones and the internet have already lost their appeal....
and...

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/04/13/as...rly-two-years/

Quote:

...Commercial real estate prices collapsed nearly 40% during the Financial Crisis, according to the Green Street Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI). Then prices more than doubled from the low in May 2009 and peaked in September 2017, when the index was 27% above the crazy peak of the prior bubble.

But since September 2017, the index has dropped 1.7%, including a 1% drop in March from February. It is now down 2.1% from March last year and back where it had been in May 2016.

This chart of the CPPI shows the phenomenal eight-year boom that has turned into a decline:

Pool, when I first started, there were allot of empty buildings to be had along major thorough fares. Since pool is a destination, it also does NOT have to be in a prime location players find you....like a golf course.

To many teens, smartphones and the internet have already lost their appeal....

This above observation of human nature caught my attention

INTERESTING!!!!

maha · Apr 15, 2018

as long as the rooms hire a minimum wage guy that just hands out the balls then goes back to his magazine, pool rooms have no chance of making it.
you need the owners back in the business running their own rooms and promoting them.

trentfromtoledo · Apr 15, 2018

Leasing a commercial space is CRAZY expensive. Even at $10 a sq ft. 5000 square ft space costs$4166.66 plus NNN and not including any bills. Places have to be restaurants / bars and pool rooms to make it. There is a trend of these "Destination" type rooms opening. The old pool room model is DEAD.... There is a recreational player demand out there, most rooms do not cater to them, even though they spend the most $$$. Just my $0.02.

Trent from Toledo

chefjeff · May 21, 2018

HT to jimmyg for finding this one:

jimmyg said:
Should Doctors Prescribe “Behaviorceuticals” Instead of Pharmaceuticals For Mental Health?
by Mary West

Pursuits involving busy hand, such as knitting, are no longer nearly as popular as they once were in decades past. According to Kelly Lambert, a neuroscientist at the University of Richmond, that is regrettable because repetitive hand movements lead to healthier neurochemistry in the brain. Her recent research indicates activities like painting, woodworking and yard work promote mental health.

“I made up this term called ‘behaviorceuticals,’ instead of pharmaceuticals, in the sense that when we move and when we engage in activities, we change the neurochemistry of our brain in ways that a drug can change the neurochemistry of our brain,” Lambert told CBS News.

Lambert has been studying the hand-brain connection using rodents. She found rats that had to dig for a reward showed better mental health than rats that were given a reward without working for it. The latter rats showed higher levels of stress hormones. She said this phenomenon shows why 19th century doctors advised women patients with anxiety to take up knitting — they believed it calmed them down.

Although knitting may seem like an unlikely brain stimulating activity, it fits the criteria needed to produce the benefits. “But when you think about, OK, repetitive movement is increasing certain neurochemicals. And then if you produce something — a hat or a scarf — there’s the reward,” Lambert added.

Our modern workplace of desk jobs is lacking something important — the opportunities to use our hands, Lambert explained. “We just sit there. And we press buttons. And you start to lose a sense of control over your environment. …If you’re making something and painting or cooking and putting things together, and you’re using both hands in a little bit more creative way, that’s going to be more engaging for the brain.”

Prior Research on Knitting

Lamberts’ findings build on a body of research that provides ample evidence of knitting’s positive effects. A 2013 study published in the British Journal of Occupational Therapy discovered a significant link between knitting frequently and feeling happy and calm.

In a 2018 study published by Knit for Peace, scientists found the hobby slowed the onset of dementia and distracted from chronic pain, as well as decreased anxiety and depression. Moreover, the advantages extend to physical health, as a 2007 Harvard study revealed that knitting lowers heart rate by an average of 11 beats per minute.

Hands-On Activities Found to Reduce Depression

In Lambert’s earlier research, she discussed the brain’s “effort-driven rewards circuit,” which means when people work with their hands to produce tangible results, they experience a reduction in depression. She attributed the benefit to the fact that hand movements activate a larger area of the brain than movements of other body parts. Aside from knitting, Lambert said a wide range of pursuits could render the same effects, including gardening or any endeavor that involves making something that has meaning to its creator, such as drawing or sculpting.

The above discoveries don’t mean that people should abandon their desk jobs. Instead, experts recommend making it a priority to engage in hands-on activities in leisure hours. Choose endeavors that cater to your skills and interests. If you aren’t artistically inclined or have access to a garden, you might take on a home-improvement project rather than have it done by a handyman. Another example might be cooking a meal from scratch, instead of getting take-out food. The activity options that will produce the therapeutic benefits are numerous.

Sources:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5517743/Keeping-hands-busy-knitting-boost-mood.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/handiwork-how-busy-hands-can-alter-our-brain-chemistry/

https://www.lifezette.com/healthzette/not-spinning-yarn-knitting-boost-health-happiness/

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.4276/030802213X13603244419077

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/...t-driven-rewards-circuit-chase-the-blues-away

http://www.govexec.com/excellence/p.../06/health-benefits-working-your-hands/64937/

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...ntia-research-knit-for-peace-uk-a8254341.html

I've read that youngsters are more depressed than other ages seem to be. Pool just might be a good "treatment" for that. Better than facebook or whatever, I'd think.

Jeff Livingston

DJSTEVEZ · May 21, 2018

chefjeff said:
I hear of "the problem with pool is..." arguments quite often here on azb. Two of those problems mentioned are:

1. Young people would rather do devices than hit balls with sticks.

2. Commercial real estate prices make opening a pool hall prohibitive.

Whadda ya think, am I crazy or what? Jeff Livingston

In my experience, you are spot-on, which is why I've been shopping for the right location & deal to open a Pool room over the last 18 months.
I'm a Psychotherapist in Private Practice, which I opened in 2010. For the last 8 years I've listened to both kids & parents lament how there's nothing for the kids to do.
I've seen the results of kids not having anything positive to stimulate them and it's not good. Human beings are social creatures and for the most part, by our nature,
we crave connection. Playing Pool at a Pool hall most definitely provides that and more.

There's been a lot written in my field about the "Loneliness Epidemic"
and let me tell you 1) it's real and 2) the isolation brought about by the Internet and "device" driven solo entertainment are the key culprits (albeit, not the only ones).

What stood out to me at SBE was that hands down, it was a FAMILY event (I was there with my oldest son).
I have to believe this is a growing trend, especially when you take into consideration everything else I just pointed out.
Imagine that, a Pool Hall is the ANSWER to problem kids, and not the source of their creation the way so many unenlightened have traditionally thought.

Yes, there are cases where kids, like adults, will opt for the easiest thing to do. This just requires a more creative parent in terms of, well, parenting.
Time is the currency of all relationships and there's no substitute for it.
Time between 2 people or more over a Pool table can be quality time well spent.
It's more than the hard core players & pros who recognize that now. There is a big resurgence coming.
And in keeping with Darwin's theory, it'll be the smart folks who are successful in riding that wave.

336Robin · May 21, 2018

Pool Rooms for the Right Reasons

I was involved in a limited way with a local room that didn't make it. After the
smoke cleared it was more about the owner than the room and some key decisions he
made and personal habits he had.

So I went back over the business plan that told me it was ok to get involved and looked
over everything and there was really no reason the room shouldn't have made it from
the sense that the business was there.

At this point I'm burned out on it and am off to do other things but I am convinced that if
a person does their due diligence that a room can make it but the biggest piece of the
puzzle is the demographic.If you have a bad demographic for your room you're going to
suffer emotionally because it will never be what you want it to be.

I say think long and hard about the customer you're going to have before you put the first penny in it.

SBC · May 22, 2018

As a recent new room owner who has played for decades I can tell you that the effort it takes to open a room is daunting. Once you open the work really starts.

In Central NY there is only so much of a market for pool. You need a core of regulars and the ability to draw new players. This takes time and patience, knowing that you are offering a superior product. People want value for their money over all else. If you rob them once with high prices, they will not return.

I advise anyone thinking of opening a room to understand the amount of time and effort involved. We did 95% of the work ourselves and our overhead is low. The room has a great old-school feel with lots of players and old timers.New players have a core of players to learn from. This is the way it has been and we wouldn't have it any other way.

garczar · May 22, 2018

trentfromtoledo said:
Leasing a commercial space is CRAZY expensive. Even at $10 a sq ft. 5000 square ft space costs$4166.66 plus NNN and not including any bills. Places have to be restaurants / bars and pool rooms to make it. There is a trend of these "Destination" type rooms opening. The old pool room model is DEAD.... There is a recreational player demand out there, most rooms do not cater to them, even though they spend the most $$$. Just my $0.02.

Trent from Toledo

Yep. Agree 100%

chefjeff · May 23, 2018

garczar said:
Yep. Agree 100%

Not so fast to just write off room rents as "too high."

The market has more empty big buildings sitting with NO revenue coming in than ever. For example, KMart here in town just closed its doors to several buildings around town. Sears is next and there are many more 'for rent' signs everywhere I look, and our economy is said to one of the best in the country.

Survival pressures could be in the renters' favor for the next few years.

I think inflation will be the biggest financial issue for pool halls (and everyone else, too), but that could be a bennie, too, as folks seek out cheaper entertainment alternatives.

Jeff Livingston

jay helfert · May 23, 2018

chefjeff said:
Not so fast to just write off room rents as "too high."

The market has more empty big buildings sitting with NO revenue coming in than ever. For example, KMart here in town just closed its doors to several buildings around town. Sears is next and there are many more 'for rent' signs everywhere I look, and our economy is said to one of the best in the country.

Survival pressures could be in the renters' favor for the next few years.

I think inflation will be the biggest financial issue for pool halls (and everyone else, too), but that could be a bennie, too, as folks seek out cheaper entertainment alternatives.

Jeff Livingston

Right on Jeff, I'm in the real estate business and I constantly see large empty buildings for rent. The key is getting good lease terms and all the licenses you need to run a successful operation. My last room had over 7,000 square feet and I was paying under $3,000/month in rent. I was licensed to sell beer and wine only, but we still did an average of $500 a day at the bar. My one failing was the lease, only three years with one three year option. Five and five would have been better, and five years with 2 five year options even better yet.

I spell out what it takes to have a successful poolroom/sports bar today in my book More Pool Wars, with nine pages devoted to that chapter. The information provided there comes from over 25 years experience in the poolroom business. It all starts with good customer service by the way! To be a good owner (and make decent money) of a poolroom or sports bar you cannot be an absentee owner. It's a hands on business and you can expect to work a minimum of 50-60 hours a week! The good news is that even today, if done correctly (as many have) you can still make a good living in this business. :grin:

chefjeff · May 23, 2018

jay helfert said:
Right on Jeff, I'm in the real estate business and I constantly see large empty buildings for rent. The key is getting good lease terms and all the licenses you need to run a successful operation. My last room had over 7,000 square feet and I was paying under $3,000/month in rent. I was licensed to sell beer and wine only, but we still did an average of $500 a day at the bar. My one failing was the lease, only three years with one three year option. Five and five would have been better, and five years with 2 five year options even better yet.

I spell out what it takes to have a successful poolroom/sports bar today in my book More Pool Wars, with nine pages devoted to that chapter. The information provided there comes from over 25 years experience in the poolroom business. It all starts with good customer service by the way! To be a good owner (and make decent money) of a poolroom or sports bar you cannot be an absentee owner. It's a hands on business and you can expect to work a minimum of 50-60 hours a week! The good news is that even today, if done correctly (as many have) you can still make a good living in this business. :grin:

Your lease story brings up a good point about today's real estate markets.

If a guy has cash, he's in the driver's seat. Buying a building outright from an investor that is stuck could be a great deal right now. That right there would put the profits into a hall with some wiggle room for downturns and such.

As the market comes back, those owners will be gaining from the inflation and appreciation.

All things cycle, nothing goes straight up in a linear fashion. Our time cometh again..

Jeff Livingston

Michael Andros · May 23, 2018

chefjeff said:
Your lease story brings up a good point about today's real estate markets.

If a guy has cash, he's in the driver's seat. Buying a building outright from an investor that is stuck could be a great deal right now. That right there would put the profits into a hall with some wiggle room for downturns and such.

As the market comes back, those owners will be gaining from the inflation and appreciation.

All things cycle, nothing goes straight up in a linear fashion. Our time cometh again..

Jeff Livingston

Earl has always been one of my favorite players ( for myriad reasons ) and even though he does and says some "questionable" things, one thing he's said, I agree with 1000%. "Pool is the greatest game ever invented." When it's right... when it's really right, nothing on earth is more beautiful. I firmly believe that. It's had its ups and downs but I look for better and better days to come for this silly, frustrating, incredible game.

chefjeff · May 31, 2018

This article is interesting:

http://www.businessinsider.com/dying-shopping-malls-are-wreaking-havoc-on-suburban-america-2017-2

...The developers that own the mall have proposed a $35 million plan to raise the roof of the former Macy's buildings to make room for a possible movie theater and trampoline park.

Mark Slusher, senior vice president of Thalhimer Realty Partners, which owns the mall with The Rebkee Company, explained the idea behind the proposal at a recent meeting with local government officials.

"The buzzword is experiential retail," Slusher said, according to The Richmond Times-Dispatch. "We are trying to create a new experience and bring people in, to attract them to the Regency experience. What that means is we need theaters and craft breweries and restaurants and trampoline parks and laser tag — things that people can experience in real life to compete with the internet. That's becoming our big competitor now — the web. We want to give people real life experiences."

Jeff Livingston

Runner · Jun 1, 2018

chefjeff said:
Not so fast to just write off room rents as "too high."

The market has more empty big buildings sitting with NO revenue coming in than ever. For example, KMart here in town just closed its doors to several buildings around town. Sears is next and there are many more 'for rent' signs everywhere I look, and our economy is said to one of the best in the country.

Survival pressures could be in the renters' favor for the next few years.

I think inflation will be the biggest financial issue for pool halls (and everyone else, too), but that could be a bennie, too, as folks seek out cheaper entertainment alternatives.

Jeff Livingston

Yes, there are more empty storefronts and buildings.. I attribute a lot of that to business getting their rent jacked up by landlords, so they don't have any option but to move/close.

One of my pool buddies is a pro photographer, he used to rent a loft in downtown L.A.
for his studio. Hipsters and wannabe's starting moving into the area, the trendy cafes starting popping up... guess what? His lease was up and the landlord tripled the rent..
buh-bye.

I couldn't imagine trying to open a proper pool hall today. Now you have to have all kinds of insurances, not to mention the rent, equipment, employee packages, etc.
In the old pool hall days, you got an old big building, get some tables, and equipment,
and you could do business. Today's costs are just too prohibitive.

You'd have to do the "sports bar" business model to make it, IMO... beer, wine, decent food, flat screens everywhere... even then, it's not a given that it'd succeed.

chefjeff · Jun 2, 2018

Runner said:
Yes, there are more empty storefronts and buildings.. I attribute a lot of that to business getting their rent jacked up by landlords, so they don't have any option but to move/close.

One of my pool buddies is a pro photographer, he used to rent a loft in downtown L.A.
for his studio. Hipsters and wannabe's starting moving into the area, the trendy cafes starting popping up... guess what? His lease was up and the landlord tripled the rent..
buh-bye.

I couldn't imagine trying to open a proper pool hall today. Now you have to have all kinds of insurances, not to mention the rent, equipment, employee packages, etc.
In the old pool hall days, you got an old big building, get some tables, and equipment,
and you could do business. Today's costs are just too prohibitive.

You'd have to do the "sports bar" business model to make it, IMO... beer, wine, decent food, flat screens everywhere... even then, it's not a given that it'd succeed.

Yes, supply and demand. My point here is, the supply is increasing as stores close everywhere and that tends to lower prices for that type of real estate. In fact, with the closings and the fake low interest rates, buying might be much more feasible than renting right now.

I heard another story on local news about kids needing to get out and do stuff. Pool can fit that bill.

Jeff Livingston

336Robin · Jun 2, 2018

Runner said:
Yes, there are more empty storefronts and buildings.. I attribute a lot of that to business getting their rent jacked up by landlords, so they don't have any option but to move/close.

One of my pool buddies is a pro photographer, he used to rent a loft in downtown L.A.
for his studio. Hipsters and wannabe's starting moving into the area, the trendy cafes starting popping up... guess what? His lease was up and the landlord tripled the rent..
buh-bye.

I couldn't imagine trying to open a proper pool hall today. Now you have to have all kinds of insurances, not to mention the rent, equipment, employee packages, etc.
In the old pool hall days, you got an old big building, get some tables, and equipment,
and you could do business. Today's costs are just too prohibitive.

You'd have to do the "sports bar" business model to make it, IMO... beer, wine, decent food, flat screens everywhere... even then, it's not a given that it'd succeed.

chefjeff said:
Yes, supply and demand. My point here is, the supply is increasing as stores close everywhere and that tends to lower prices for that type of real estate. In fact, with the closings and the fake low interest rates, buying might be much more feasible than renting right now.

I heard another story on local news about kids needing to get out and do stuff. Pool can fit that bill.

Jeff Livingston

Making a business work these days seems such a fine art. You have to
have it dialed in perfectly for the demographic you want to market to and then you
must push it hard. A few things I haven't seen done is pricing that gives a normal
value and a place set up around recreation and marketing towards school age kids.

Island Drive · Jun 4, 2018

The true key to a business owner is his makeup and character. Owning a biz and then being successful is a lifestyle commitment. It's as hard in many ways and, is NO different than the time and effort/luck/god given will and hours of practice it takes to be a McCready. I am often amazed how successful some businesse's are....those places often are the simplest in nature...and make sense.

jay helfert · Jun 6, 2018

Island Drive said:
The true key to a business owner is his makeup and character. Owning a biz and then being successful is a lifestyle commitment. It's as hard in many ways and, is NO different than the time and effort/luck/god given will and hours of practice it takes to be a McCready. I am often amazed how successful some businesse's are....those places often are the simplest in nature...and make sense.

Ain't that the truth! Having owned several businesses myself, I tend to evaluate every store or business I enter to see it's feasibility. A couple of places come to mind for me, both are relatively small operations. The first one is a soul food type restaurant in a mini mall near me where you just walk up to the counter, wait in line and order your meal (eat in or take out) from the small buffet in front of you. They have a very limited menu, focused on a healthy portion of baked chicken with appetizers like sweet potatoes, corn on the cob or yams. People are lined up all day long to get meals to go and the average price is around $10 a plate. The food is damn good and the price is right. This business is selling hundreds of plates a day and the owner is making beaucoup bucks! The whole operation is in a space that is less than 1,500 square feet. This business is a little gold mine for someone. They could easily be making 250K a year or more!

The second one that comes to mind is a small Japanese Noodle place a couple miles from my house. They don't open until 3 PM and there are people lined up waiting outside by 2:45. You are greeted by the entire staff when you enter in some kind of Japanese greeting yelled out to you. It's mostly all sit down fare and the menu is focused on noodle dishes with all kinds of ingredients. Prices are moderate and service is fast. They can get a party of four in and out within thirty minutes. They remain packed until closing at 10 PM. There is seating for maybe 40-50 people at one time. Again, hundreds of meals are served daily and the space might be 2,000 square feet. Someone is making out very well with this business, also in the healthy six figure range I can assure you.

One business like the one's I've described above and you will be okay and be able to live a very comfortable lifestyle. You could always expand to more similar operations but then your headaches only increase. I've been the 100% owner of two very successful mid size poolrooms (18-22 tables), that were busy seven days a week for several years each. They allowed me to make some prudent investments in real estate and now I have a pretty healthy net worth. When I was 27 years old, I was a near broke pool player with my entire net worth in my front pocket. :smile:

I've seen many such operations that I know are producing a good income for the owner(s). You can open a successful coffee/expresso type business without having to call it Starbucks. Just copy their model and go! That way you are not paying the exorbitant franchise fees.

I saw one other little business in the Philippines that I loved. It was run by a single old woman on a street corner. She had a large wok with a propane heater under it and was cooking fresh chicken all day long and offering a couple of different sauces in plastic pouches with each order. She couldn't make the chicken fast enough to keep up with the constant stream of people and was hustling her butt off full time. I think each order sold for maybe a two or three dollars. Multiply that by several hundred orders and you get my drift. That's big money in the Philippines! That little old lady was making out like a bandit. And she was working hard to do it. I say good for her!

I can't tell you how many similar businesses I've seen over the years. If you have a good idea (what people want and need in your area) then I say go for it! I took a chance and invested everything I had in a failing poolroom 45 years ago and it worked out well for me.

Two hopeful trends for pool's future...

If not now...

AzB Silver Member

Otto/Dads College Roommate/Cleveland Browns

from way back when

8onthebreaktoledo

If not now...

Professor of Human Moves

Multiverse Operative

AzB Silver Member

AzB Silver Member

If not now...

Shoot Pool, not people

If not now...

tiny balls, GIANT pockets

If not now...

AzB Silver Member

If not now...

Multiverse Operative

Otto/Dads College Roommate/Cleveland Browns

Shoot Pool, not people