T-Rex vs Robocop Big Money One Pocket Action Rubber Match
- Thread starter terryhanna
- Start date
Uniballpenman
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Let's go Tony!
I am just gonna say it... Either Dennis got like 4 hours of sleep last night, or he is tossing Tony a few easy games to have the final score be a little closer.
Final Day's Coverage Today 4PM Central
Day #4 LIVE from Buffalo's Billiards in New Orleans resumes today Sunday at 4pm central.
Tune in and see if T-Rex can fight his way out of the 30-25 deficit.
Day #4 LIVE from Buffalo's Billiards in New Orleans resumes today Sunday at 4pm central.
Tune in and see if T-Rex can fight his way out of the 30-25 deficit.
Maybe I can help with that.
If you calculate their relative FargoRate from just the 55 games played so far, Dennis is about 26 points above Tony. If those two players now play a match to 10/15 the match odds come out to be 93% for Dennis, or about 13:1.
An alternative bet would be to give Tony six or seven on the wire at this point for even money.
Guys were getting 9 before it started I figured 10 or better based on thier last match
1
Wow, that's impressive that Fargo is so consistent wit the binomial probability implied by the results so far. If we assume that Tony's probability of winning a given rack is 25/55, which is about .4545, we can use Fermat's equation to determine the likelihood that he'll have 15 successes before he has 10 failures. I checked it out and Fermat's equation gives Tony a .0707 chance of winning this match and Dennis a .9293 chance. Makes me wonder if Fargo uses the same methodology.
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Yeah, but Tony beat Dennis 11-6 in the last 17 games last night. Maybe we've had a tectonic shift in their underlying frizoolas or fermifargos or whatevers. Surely someone will take Tony even now, right?
[er, not me]
I must plead guilty to the charge of having overlooked the frizoola factor.
Or Dennis eased on the pedal and did not want to win by double digits .
Not likely he's stalling to set up the big money, BECAUSE THIS IS THE BIG MONEY!
Yes, I'm pretty sure it does.
I think the tool on the Fargo "fairmatch" page has a limit of 99 games per player because the combinatorials involved create very large intermediate values. It is possible to set up the calculation as a Markov chain which avoids the intermediate large numbers and very long matches can be calculated.
Neither method takes frizoolas into account, so caveat emptor.
We are LIVE from Buffalo's Billiards for day four.
Tune in and see if T-Rex can fight his way back from the 30-25 deficit.
Tune in and see if T-Rex can fight his way back from the 30-25 deficit.
