Is the 350 archived?
John Schmidt at BullShooters
- Thread starter thebark
- Start date
Is the 350 archived?
Some time ago I estimated the chance that John would run 100 from an open start based on his first tries for 527. That was one chance in four. In his current series at Bull Shooters, he has had 25 runs over 100. From that it is easy to estimate how many of those runs should have gotten to 200 -- simply a quarter of them, or 6.25. In fact he had 5 runs of 200 or more. Similarly, the number of runs over 300 should be about 1.6 and there has been one.
Those results say that the 1/4 probability for 100 is in the right ballpark. It is possible to estimate the number of times John has to pass 100 to have one run of 527. That is somewhere around 300 100s. It is also something like 20 runs of 300.
But those are averages and a 500 could happen on his next inning. If you play the Lotto until you win the big prize, you will probably have gotten five out of six numbers dozens of times first, but paradoxically few Lotto winners hit even one five of six before they win the big prize. If we had 2000 Schmidts starting on 2000 different tables tomorrow, it is likely that one of them would run over 527 on his first try.
Those results say that the 1/4 probability for 100 is in the right ballpark. It is possible to estimate the number of times John has to pass 100 to have one run of 527. That is somewhere around 300 100s. It is also something like 20 runs of 300.
But those are averages and a 500 could happen on his next inning. If you play the Lotto until you win the big prize, you will probably have gotten five out of six numbers dozens of times first, but paradoxically few Lotto winners hit even one five of six before they win the big prize. If we had 2000 Schmidts starting on 2000 different tables tomorrow, it is likely that one of them would run over 527 on his first try.
Oops. My mistake. I was looking at only part of the spreadsheet of Bull Shooters results. He actually has had 55 of 100 or more, since he has had two 100s.
>=100 55
>=200 7 ----------- "expected" 13.25
>= 300 2 ---------- 3.3
Here are all of the >=100s so far:
100 100 106 106 108 108 110 111 112 113 113 113 113 114 114 119 120 123 125 127 132 138 140 141 141 141 141 141 141 144 145 146 154 154 154 156 164 168 175 175 176 179 180 183 190 193 197 197
204 227 228 283 293
350 384
All the above makes the 526 just that much more impressive.
And i think Willie said his high run was 608 but undocumented.
But I can believe he did run the 608.
The only witness according to the story I heard was Charlie Ursitti, but I believe it's entirely possible. I also believe Cranfield ran a 768. They were both practice runs and not exhibitions nor has anyone ever claimed them as exhibition runs.
John's on a good run right now -- 210 and on a timeout to clean the balls and table.
An interesting side note. They did the same thing after John passed the first hundred. At 112, the racker marked the CB and OB with chalks. He then placed the balls back on the table near the chalks, for John to put in their correct places while he (the racker) racked the balls. But John put the CB back on the wrong side of the chalk and played it that way.
[The mistake was not really advantageous.]
And it's underway again.
Edit -- now at 266 (more than halfway "there")
An interesting side note. They did the same thing after John passed the first hundred. At 112, the racker marked the CB and OB with chalks. He then placed the balls back on the table near the chalks, for John to put in their correct places while he (the racker) racked the balls. But John put the CB back on the wrong side of the chalk and played it that way.
[The mistake was not really advantageous.]
And it's underway again.
Edit -- now at 266 (more than halfway "there")
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Day 15 only 2 runs over 100. A run of 150 and oh yeah a pedestrian run of 390. I cannot express in words the excitement and amazement of watching this phenomenal player achieve this run. It was ended by a backcut cross table into the side with 3 balls on the table. Position was automatic and he surely would have gotten on the next breakball with a great chance to move into the 400's. Tomorrow the stream starts at 2 Az time. Thursday Friday and Saturday will start at noon with a schedule of 4 hours of play.Sunday is a holy day because it is the finals of the Masters, there will be no play. Tune in you you won't want to miss it.
I was there for the 390. It takes some stamina to just watch.:smile:
As for marking the ball positions with chalks.... There are two kinds of asymmetrical purpose-made ball markers available at the table. They prevent errors on replacement. I don't know why they are not being used.