I predicted that Gomez would start strong each day when he was fresh, and when the night progressed that Bergman would pull out ahead. Gomez is more explosive, Bergman grinds better. The entire reason Berg chose this format is because he wanted to make it a contest of grinding, not highest gear. Things played out this way. Looking at the scores by day and knowing the tale of the tape shows just that.
Day one Gomez got ahead 22-11 (+11) during the first half of day one (early stages). Then Berg made a heroic turnaround and finished 35-29 (+17 from the low point, late stages).
Day two Gomez tied it up at 47-47 (+6 swing for the day, early stages), but then Berg didn't have a chance to strike back during the later half of the night.
Day three Gomez was back and forth with some big swings, but overall once again it was fairly close until they were well into the session. Sure enough Berg closed out the night very strong, getting +12 at one point and finishing +8 at 80-72.
Day four when they were both relatively fresh they about split games with Berg finishing the day 20-19, just +1, with a final score of 100-91.
As you see, Berg didn't outscore Gomez on the two sessions that finished quickly. He won the match during the nights that went all the way. I really think the power outage hurt Berg for this reason, I thought it might cost him the match and was probably why he didn't cover the predicted spread. Meanwhile the long format didn't help Gomez. I believe that if they had been playing a best of 5 races to 21 with meal breaks in between the sets it might have been a different result.
What makes it even tougher for Gomez was the difficult racks he faced. Looking at the break and run stats Gomez did run 11 racks more from his break with less breaks. How did Berg make this up? How did he win so many games off his dry breaks? Well, when Gomez broke dry the balls were splattered everywhere. Bergman still had to earn them, but let's be clear, you couldn't tell which end of the table he'd broken from. When Berg broke his best breaks where he made a ball were tough, but when he came up dry they were flat out a mess. That means that all night long Gomez was facing huge sums of adversity and much harder work. This allowed Justin to pick up the pieces with some easy racks after the inevitable turnovers, in addition to further wearing Gomez out and slowing him down. Gomez had a breaking edge to a point, but due to this phenomenon it wasn't as decisive as some would think.
In the end both players played jam up. I'm impressed that Gomez played as well as he did. I was really impressed with his firepower, his speed control, his striking, and his heart. He reminded me of Alex with how precisely he maneuvered through racks. I had incorrectly thought him to be a bit more of a powerhouse that lacked that level of precision. He played better than I expected. But Berg also played better than I expected, making one amazing out after another and making almost no pocketing or cue ball errors. What really blew me away was the total offense, they flat out refused to play safe and found ways to run through many racks that I thought were unrunnable.
As for how Berg matches up against the elite, we know he can't get there against the players at the very top that possess the same skills in addition to a better break and even stronger firepower. But this was an amazing match to watch and I agree that 8 ball makes for a very dramatic and exciting exhibition. Good games to both and looking forward to seeing more of them matching up in the future!
Match results, by day (Begman's score first)
Day 1 -- 35 - 29
Day 2 -- 12 - 18 (2-day total 47 - 47)
Day 3 -- 33 - 25 (3-day total 80 - 72)
Day 4 -- 20 - 19
Total -- 100 - 91
Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Bergman -- 28 of 99 (28%)
Gomez -- 39 of 92 (42%)
Total -- 67 of 191 (35%)